on a side note, I have two Trend/Pullback versions of the SPY
system. One triggered and one did not. Officially I've
been using the version that did not so that's why I didn't send a
trade notification for it.
However quite honestly the stats are two half one dozen the
other. Here's a comparison: The one on the left did not
take the trade which is the one we use, has a Profit factor of 14
and 85.5% winning trades and 166 trades. The one on the right took
the trade has a profit factor of 13.84, so vs 14.03 that's almost
the same. The winning percentage is 85.16% vs 85.5%, so close.
total trades of 182 vs 166 so it does quite a bit more trades
Matt, thanks for all the great work. Do you use the second
version because it has smaller drawdowns? The drawdown stats don't
show here unless I'm missing something?
i appreciate the %s on these systems--but my main
question is what did you see--- if i understand this correctly then
the 60 stoch staying over the 80 overbought gives confidence
to a buy trade in this instance if the other shorter term
indicators get oversold ??? Is that the basic thrust
here -- Id love some clarity---thanks
yes basically, 60 Stochastic is at 91% while a %R
indicator is oversold. Again it's similar to the Stochastic
momentum stuff where 60 Stochastic is over 80 while a 10 stochastic
gets oversold.
also as a side note the trend/pullback system will likely go
long on Monday even if price is up some.
Posted by Orangeman on 21st of Feb 2020 at 05:04 pm
2nd that request to monitor the unofficial trend/pullback trade
if possible.
I got in just as SPY triggered out of that wedge. $310
calls for May - I realize I paid a premium, but bought some extra
wiggle room (extrinsic value) given the recent backdrop
so you see how complicated that shit gets guys? what would you
have done? taken the trade or not taken the trade? honestly it's
flip of a coin as they are mostly the same thing. anyway you get a
glimpse of the mental games I go through at times LOL
Posted by elementsix on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:20 pm
I can imagine the stress when it's that close. I'll stick with
the systems though. No trade = no trade. And thanks for the sneak
peak on the new system!
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on a side note, I
SPY Systems possible trade today - read details
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:08 pm
on a side note, I have two Trend/Pullback versions of the SPY system. One triggered and one did not. Officially I've been using the version that did not so that's why I didn't send a trade notification for it.
However quite honestly the stats are two half one dozen the other. Here's a comparison: The one on the left did not take the trade which is the one we use, has a Profit factor of 14 and 85.5% winning trades and 166 trades. The one on the right took the trade has a profit factor of 13.84, so vs 14.03 that's almost the same. The winning percentage is 85.16% vs 85.5%, so close. total trades of 182 vs 166 so it does quite a bit more trades
Matt, thanks for all the
Posted by puma on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:20 pm
Matt, thanks for all the great work. Do you use the second version because it has smaller drawdowns? The drawdown stats don't show here unless I'm missing something?
they both have the exact
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:22 pm
they both have the exact same draw down
i appreciate the %s
Posted by watcdy on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:27 pm
i appreciate the %s on these systems--but my main question is what did you see--- if i understand this correctly then the 60 stoch staying over the 80 overbought gives confidence to a buy trade in this instance if the other shorter term indicators get oversold ??? Is that the basic thrust here -- Id love some clarity---thanks
yes basically, 60 Stochastic is
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:49 pm
yes basically, 60 Stochastic is at 91% while a %R indicator is oversold. Again it's similar to the Stochastic momentum stuff where 60 Stochastic is over 80 while a 10 stochastic gets oversold.
also as a side note the trend/pullback system will likely go long on Monday even if price is up some.
Thanks. Have a great weekend!
Posted by puma on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:24 pm
Thanks. Have a great weekend!
Would you please keep us
Posted by te22 on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:13 pm
Would you please keep us updated on the unofficial Trend/Pullback for this trade? It would be greatly appreciated.
2nd that request to monitor
Posted by Orangeman on 21st of Feb 2020 at 05:04 pm
2nd that request to monitor the unofficial trend/pullback trade if possible.
I got in just as SPY triggered out of that wedge. $310 calls for May - I realize I paid a premium, but bought some extra wiggle room (extrinsic value) given the recent backdrop
I think a good call.
Posted by ssaffer on 21st of Feb 2020 at 05:09 pm
I think a good call. For people that want to mitigate risk can do a Vertical call spread. BOTM call and sell a call OTM.
so you see how complicated
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:10 pm
so you see how complicated that shit gets guys? what would you have done? taken the trade or not taken the trade? honestly it's flip of a coin as they are mostly the same thing. anyway you get a glimpse of the mental games I go through at times LOL
Thanks for all the work
Posted by generic on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:31 pm
Thanks for all the work you do. I shall follow the system, if the trade did not trigger, I shall wait. I want trading to become boring.
I think you did the
Posted by cozz101 on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:21 pm
I think you did the right thing even if missed by pennies. Keeping the system automated should prevent having to second guess too much.
I can imagine the stress
Posted by elementsix on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:20 pm
I can imagine the stress when it's that close. I'll stick with the systems though. No trade = no trade. And thanks for the sneak peak on the new system!