Regarding the SPY Systems, first off one of the newer sub
systems I made, called the QE MOMO is going to trigger today most
likely. Now this sub system is a tough one. First off it has a very
high profit factor of over 400, which is very high. Basically what
it does is like the Stochastic momentum condition I discuss all the
time when a 60 length Stochastic is above 80% and faster indicators
become oversold. For this sub system I require the 60 Stochastic be
above 87% Here's the stats, see the first few images, I also
included the trade history list.
The only danger the sub system has of course is if the market
took a hard dump, you have a high entry. Otherwise
historically the stats are good. Max draw down is 330 on 10,000 for
the 1st entry that's 3.3%, and 120 for the 2nd entry or 1.2%.
One could use that for stop outs or the 60 Stochastic going
below 80% anyway guys I"m trying to give you all the information I
can so you can make an informed decision. The stats are very
good basically but there is some risk, though historically draw
down has been pretty small.
So it's up to you if you wish to follow the trade or not. Also
the Trend/Pullback sub system may take a trade here at any time so
even if you were to skip this one, probably other systems will be
takign trades.
on a side note, I have two Trend/Pullback versions of the SPY
system. One triggered and one did not. Officially I've
been using the version that did not so that's why I didn't send a
trade notification for it.
However quite honestly the stats are two half one dozen the
other. Here's a comparison: The one on the left did not
take the trade which is the one we use, has a Profit factor of 14
and 85.5% winning trades and 166 trades. The one on the right took
the trade has a profit factor of 13.84, so vs 14.03 that's almost
the same. The winning percentage is 85.16% vs 85.5%, so close.
total trades of 182 vs 166 so it does quite a bit more trades
Matt, thanks for all the great work. Do you use the second
version because it has smaller drawdowns? The drawdown stats don't
show here unless I'm missing something?
i appreciate the %s on these systems--but my main
question is what did you see--- if i understand this correctly then
the 60 stoch staying over the 80 overbought gives confidence
to a buy trade in this instance if the other shorter term
indicators get oversold ??? Is that the basic thrust
here -- Id love some clarity---thanks
yes basically, 60 Stochastic is at 91% while a %R
indicator is oversold. Again it's similar to the Stochastic
momentum stuff where 60 Stochastic is over 80 while a 10 stochastic
gets oversold.
also as a side note the trend/pullback system will likely go
long on Monday even if price is up some.
Posted by Orangeman on 21st of Feb 2020 at 05:04 pm
2nd that request to monitor the unofficial trend/pullback trade
if possible.
I got in just as SPY triggered out of that wedge. $310
calls for May - I realize I paid a premium, but bought some extra
wiggle room (extrinsic value) given the recent backdrop
so you see how complicated that shit gets guys? what would you
have done? taken the trade or not taken the trade? honestly it's
flip of a coin as they are mostly the same thing. anyway you get a
glimpse of the mental games I go through at times LOL
Posted by elementsix on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:20 pm
I can imagine the stress when it's that close. I'll stick with
the systems though. No trade = no trade. And thanks for the sneak
peak on the new system!
it's possible there won't be a trade because of this market
bounce, so I have to wait until 2 min after the close to send the
email if there's one to confirm
the reason why 2 min is because the SPY bar does not offically
close until 2 min after the close on TS probably because they are
still closing orders. It is what it is, the daily bar doesn't
stop updating unit 4:02 instead of 4:00
Posted by goap1207 on 21st of Feb 2020 at 06:03 pm
Matt....Thanks for sharing the 120 min system. I also love
this system and will trade it. Please keep the signals
coming!!! Thanks for all the great and hard
work!
SPY Systems possible trade today - read details
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 03:21 pm
Regarding the SPY Systems, first off one of the newer sub systems I made, called the QE MOMO is going to trigger today most likely. Now this sub system is a tough one. First off it has a very high profit factor of over 400, which is very high. Basically what it does is like the Stochastic momentum condition I discuss all the time when a 60 length Stochastic is above 80% and faster indicators become oversold. For this sub system I require the 60 Stochastic be above 87% Here's the stats, see the first few images, I also included the trade history list.
The only danger the sub system has of course is if the market took a hard dump, you have a high entry. Otherwise historically the stats are good. Max draw down is 330 on 10,000 for the 1st entry that's 3.3%, and 120 for the 2nd entry or 1.2%. One could use that for stop outs or the 60 Stochastic going below 80% anyway guys I"m trying to give you all the information I can so you can make an informed decision. The stats are very good basically but there is some risk, though historically draw down has been pretty small.
So it's up to you if you wish to follow the trade or not. Also the Trend/Pullback sub system may take a trade here at any time so even if you were to skip this one, probably other systems will be takign trades.
on a side note, I
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:08 pm
on a side note, I have two Trend/Pullback versions of the SPY system. One triggered and one did not. Officially I've been using the version that did not so that's why I didn't send a trade notification for it.
However quite honestly the stats are two half one dozen the other. Here's a comparison: The one on the left did not take the trade which is the one we use, has a Profit factor of 14 and 85.5% winning trades and 166 trades. The one on the right took the trade has a profit factor of 13.84, so vs 14.03 that's almost the same. The winning percentage is 85.16% vs 85.5%, so close. total trades of 182 vs 166 so it does quite a bit more trades
Matt, thanks for all the
Posted by puma on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:20 pm
Matt, thanks for all the great work. Do you use the second version because it has smaller drawdowns? The drawdown stats don't show here unless I'm missing something?
they both have the exact
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:22 pm
they both have the exact same draw down
i appreciate the %s
Posted by watcdy on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:27 pm
i appreciate the %s on these systems--but my main question is what did you see--- if i understand this correctly then the 60 stoch staying over the 80 overbought gives confidence to a buy trade in this instance if the other shorter term indicators get oversold ??? Is that the basic thrust here -- Id love some clarity---thanks
yes basically, 60 Stochastic is
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:49 pm
yes basically, 60 Stochastic is at 91% while a %R indicator is oversold. Again it's similar to the Stochastic momentum stuff where 60 Stochastic is over 80 while a 10 stochastic gets oversold.
also as a side note the trend/pullback system will likely go long on Monday even if price is up some.
Thanks. Have a great weekend!
Posted by puma on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:24 pm
Thanks. Have a great weekend!
Would you please keep us
Posted by te22 on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:13 pm
Would you please keep us updated on the unofficial Trend/Pullback for this trade? It would be greatly appreciated.
2nd that request to monitor
Posted by Orangeman on 21st of Feb 2020 at 05:04 pm
2nd that request to monitor the unofficial trend/pullback trade if possible.
I got in just as SPY triggered out of that wedge. $310 calls for May - I realize I paid a premium, but bought some extra wiggle room (extrinsic value) given the recent backdrop
I think a good call.
Posted by ssaffer on 21st of Feb 2020 at 05:09 pm
I think a good call. For people that want to mitigate risk can do a Vertical call spread. BOTM call and sell a call OTM.
so you see how complicated
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:10 pm
so you see how complicated that shit gets guys? what would you have done? taken the trade or not taken the trade? honestly it's flip of a coin as they are mostly the same thing. anyway you get a glimpse of the mental games I go through at times LOL
Thanks for all the work
Posted by generic on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:31 pm
Thanks for all the work you do. I shall follow the system, if the trade did not trigger, I shall wait. I want trading to become boring.
I think you did the
Posted by cozz101 on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:21 pm
I think you did the right thing even if missed by pennies. Keeping the system automated should prevent having to second guess too much.
I can imagine the stress
Posted by elementsix on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:20 pm
I can imagine the stress when it's that close. I'll stick with the systems though. No trade = no trade. And thanks for the sneak peak on the new system!
no Trade - literally missed
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:02 pm
no Trade - literally missed it by pennies
Thanks for everything Matt, we
Posted by ciamears on 21st of Feb 2020 at 11:32 pm
Thanks for everything Matt, we really appreciate everything you guys fo for us!
it's possible there won't be
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 03:54 pm
it's possible there won't be a trade because of this market bounce, so I have to wait until 2 min after the close to send the email if there's one to confirm
the reason why 2 min
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 03:59 pm
the reason why 2 min is because the SPY bar does not offically close until 2 min after the close on TS probably because they are still closing orders. It is what it is, the daily bar doesn't stop updating unit 4:02 instead of 4:00
anyway nice stop out on
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 03:28 pm
anyway nice stop out on the 120 min system yesterday for a profit
Have a great weekend Matt.
Posted by timsufo on 21st of Feb 2020 at 04:55 pm
Have a great weekend Matt. BTW, have you posted your 120 min Dynamic Stop Trend System SSOspreadsheet on the website? I love that system!!
Matt....Thanks for sharing the 120
Posted by goap1207 on 21st of Feb 2020 at 06:03 pm
Matt....Thanks for sharing the 120 min system. I also love this system and will trade it. Please keep the signals coming!!! Thanks for all the great and hard work!
remember I put the URL
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2020 at 05:24 pm
remember I put the URL in Wednesday's newsletter in the table of contents
https://breakpointtrades.com/current_dvts/
yes i dont get to
Posted by morton7 on 21st of Feb 2020 at 06:19 pm
yes i dont get to post very often but keep the signals coming and thanks for all of your hard work..!!!