Or how about shorts covering after key 1260 resistance was broken?

Evil Speculator had some brill data on market seasonality charted form the 1950s. I can't post the chart, but basically bullish months/periods are March - April, July, October and October - January. Even including 87 and 08 crash October is still bullish. Negative to sideways are February, May - June and August - September. May and August are especially neutral.

Problem with Greece is a very uncompetitive business culture. Greece has a whole slew of products that could be successfully marketed worldwide. Italy has many of the same products and has successful industries built around them. Food: cheeses and dairy products, herbs and spices, olive oil, fruit and vegetables, meat and by products. I've lived in Italy and Spain and I'll venture to say that some of the Greek products are the finest but who has ever heard of any Greek cheese other than Feta? Wines: there is a growing, wine industry here producing excellent wines but outside of Greece, it's all about Retsina. Tourism: Greece is chockful of places of incredible natural beauty which they could exploit aggressively and imaginatively, if only they would leave behind the old model of the super tourist complex that only misallocates precious resources and ends up falling to bits. Marble and stone: Extraordinarily cheap, it is feasible to build an entire house out of stone here, a luxury in any other place, yet it is the Chinese who are exporting stone to the rest of Europe. Shipping: probably the richest and most successful industry in Greece, yet controlled by a handful of the elite.

So yes, the products and potential are here, it is the mindset that has to change.

Guess we'll see, if this goes ahead. But if there has to be new elections, PASOK the governing party will probably lose. So if his own party does not support him they will have voted themselves out.

For Greece too. A default and return to the Drachma could mean decades of a stagnant economy and poverty for many. On the other hand, if the current crippling debt is not reduced to realistic levels the same thing will happen (is happening). One thing not often mentioned: Greek bonds were not issued under International law but under Greek law, therefore in the case of  default, the Greek government has quite a bit of say on who gets what, if ever. That is quite a bargaining chip and I'm sure that banks, bondholders and European leaders are aware of that.

I agree, it's a master move: risky but with high stakes to be won if things go his way. Papandreous NEEDS to quell some of the flames of anger from the local populace, people are really angry and frustrated with the austerity measures imposed but with no light at the end of the tunnel. On the other hand, most Greeks do NOT want to revert to the Drachma so this may be a way to force them to face the issue. As the article points out, the 50% haircut really does nothing as it is only for privately held debt. There is also a lot of resentment against Germany and France and how they are running the whole show (don't ask me to explain the logic of this, just the way it is), so the surprise announcement leaving the top European officials agog has garnered him some short term popular respect. I'm sure he realizes that the end game for Greece is nigh and he's playing all or nothing now.

Obviously you don't think that the EU has less then vested interests in saving Greece. Greece is the lynch pin to a very explosive situation. My point was that austerity measures alone whilst piling on more debt to pay previous debt will not stop the endgame and the Greeks know it. The Greeks would respond more favorably to any sort of coherent policy to address huge structural problems in the economy. But they only see power plays to save the crumbling edifice of the Euro...

It's not so easy. Greeks are well aware that a default would be extremely painful. Bear in mind that Greece has a primary fiscal deficit which means that it can't even pay pensions, wages, hospitals, schools and basic infrastructure this month without bailout money. Even more severe austerity measures as demanded, however, is like squeezing blood from a stone. The "mob" are real people who are suffering through pension and wage cuts, job losses and mounting taxes. The adage "between a rock and a hard place" accurately describes where the Greek population finds itself today.

50% Fib retracement of this drop would coincide with gap close around 1253. So far $TICK does not indicate a down trend day.

Tested horizontal support (31.96), 20MA (31.52) and 50% Fib retracement of recent move. In at 31.55 for a trade with a tight stop.

The much touted 50% haircut is for privately held debt only. Since most Greek bonds are with public institutions including the ECB which holds a big chunk, that's more like a 20% debt reduction which does nothing for Greece other then destroy its banks. The EU statement was a lovely example of Orwellian double speak: The expanded EFSF is guaranteed by all member states including those needing bailouts.... Unfortunately there is still no creditable backstop to halt the European crisis.

Austerity alone is not working for Greece. I live here and I see all around me people being squeezed to death. Bartering groups are springing up all over the country spontaneously as people try to cope with job losses, pension cuts and increased taxes. But there are no plans or projects to encourage economic growth even at a modest grassroots level. A 50% debt reduction supposes reducing Greece's debt to 120% of GDP by 2020 (supposedly good) but these calculations are based on a growing economy....

Thanks for the continued updates about the possible last hour reversals. Caught the first reaction off 1256ish and again the double top. Your info. was a nice nudge.

Good post from Cobra regarding last hour reversal days: The stats taht he includes from Bespoke are quite compelling.

" Let’s play a different test today: short at today’s close, hold (turn the computer off, or shall I see, turn your ipad off?) until the very first SPX red day, the winning rate WAS 100%, average holding period 1.3 trading days and 2.35% gains, not bad ha. In another word, if up huge again tomorrow, then chances are it would be completely erased the day after tomorrow."

Thanks Michael. So far looks like no attempt to close gap. 50SMA on ES 5 minute looks like support. Won't short till a close below.

Sorry, could you clarify? Does positive mean gap will close?

Fib retracement measured from 1220 to lows. ES wedge noted, maybe ABC counter move, now in B? Guess we'll see soon.

That looks to line up with the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1154. Otherwise, gap close and 50% Fib retracement 1166-1167 area.

Took the trade as I have every single trade that has been issued, but I am following multi system. I also halved position size because I felt that I had too large percentage of my capital dedicated to the system before. I do not regret this, I hope the system continues to perform.

Matt is referring to Fibonacci retracement levels (pl google if you are not familiar), specifically the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. Here is a SPY chart for you to see the numbers.

SPY daily

Yes, good points both kbgupta and burkmere.. kinda wanted to point out that it has been important to maintain discipline on this very tough trade. With this official exit my losses have been reduced to acceptable. Would hate to have sold around 1120 level as I was very tempted to. Hedging has helped.