I agree, it's a master move: risky but with high stakes to be
won if things go his way. Papandreous NEEDS to quell some of the
flames of anger from the local populace, people are really angry
and frustrated with the austerity measures imposed but with no
light at the end of the tunnel. On the other hand, most Greeks do
NOT want to revert to the Drachma so this may be a way to force
them to face the issue. As the article points out, the 50% haircut
really does nothing as it is only for privately held debt. There is
also a lot of resentment against Germany and France and how they
are running the whole show (don't ask me to explain the logic of
this, just the way it is), so the surprise announcement leaving the
top European officials agog has garnered him some short term
popular respect. I'm sure he realizes that the end game for Greece
is nigh and he's playing all or nothing now.
For Greece too. A default and return to the Drachma could mean
decades of a stagnant economy and poverty for many. On the other
hand, if the current crippling debt is not reduced to realistic
levels the same thing will happen (is happening). One thing not
often mentioned: Greek bonds were not issued under International
law but under Greek law, therefore in the case of default,
the Greek government has quite a bit of say on who gets what, if
ever. That is quite a bargaining chip and I'm sure that banks,
bondholders and European leaders are aware of that.
Guess we'll see, if this goes ahead. But if there has to be new
elections, PASOK the governing party will probably lose. So if his
own party does not support him they will have voted themselves
out.
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Vida re:Greece
Posted by bkout3 on 2nd of Nov 2011 at 08:47 am
Glad to have someone "on the ground there" -- what do you think of this-- makes him seem like quite the chess player
I agree, it's a master
Posted by Vida on 2nd of Nov 2011 at 09:41 am
I agree, it's a master move: risky but with high stakes to be won if things go his way. Papandreous NEEDS to quell some of the flames of anger from the local populace, people are really angry and frustrated with the austerity measures imposed but with no light at the end of the tunnel. On the other hand, most Greeks do NOT want to revert to the Drachma so this may be a way to force them to face the issue. As the article points out, the 50% haircut really does nothing as it is only for privately held debt. There is also a lot of resentment against Germany and France and how they are running the whole show (don't ask me to explain the logic of this, just the way it is), so the surprise announcement leaving the top European officials agog has garnered him some short term popular respect. I'm sure he realizes that the end game for Greece is nigh and he's playing all or nothing now.
end game
Posted by biscuit on 2nd of Nov 2011 at 09:45 am
the end game is not for greece, but for the bondholders and bankers.
For Greece too. A default
Posted by Vida on 2nd of Nov 2011 at 09:54 am
For Greece too. A default and return to the Drachma could mean decades of a stagnant economy and poverty for many. On the other hand, if the current crippling debt is not reduced to realistic levels the same thing will happen (is happening). One thing not often mentioned: Greek bonds were not issued under International law but under Greek law, therefore in the case of default, the Greek government has quite a bit of say on who gets what, if ever. That is quite a bargaining chip and I'm sure that banks, bondholders and European leaders are aware of that.
But will his govt fall in the parliamentary vote of confidence?
Posted by lessarda on 2nd of Nov 2011 at 09:44 am
This is scheduled ahead of any popular referendum.
Guess we'll see, if this
Posted by Vida on 2nd of Nov 2011 at 09:57 am
Guess we'll see, if this goes ahead. But if there has to be new elections, PASOK the governing party will probably lose. So if his own party does not support him they will have voted themselves out.