Whether I would be lacking discipline if I were not to take the
next trade or whether I would be silly to keep following the
system, which might just not "work." Could always trade with
less money than the last trade, but again, the discipline
thing. Not trying to bash, just wondering what others are
thinking and what Matt plans to do going forward with his personal
money with which he is trading the system.
And one of my concerns is that we keep getting tweaks going
forward. No offense Matt, but IMO this has happened with the
GDX system to some degree. Maybe it works great, but it just
makes me question the validity of a "system" I guess (and that is
true with any "system"). Appreciate all of the hard work
here, but this has been a tough one to swallow for someone who has
been "disciplined" and following. Just wondering what others
thoughts are please. Thanks.
I tend to disagree. One thing I appreciate about Matt's work is
that he is working hard to improve both GDX and SPY systems and is
pretty quick to impliment something he believes is better. He
always gives us an explanation as to why it is better and
backtests. Not sure why I would want him to slow down those
efforts. I trade them both and have been happy with all the
improvements, which I see as real improvements. So I don't mind
when the system I'm trading is improved. These are both awesome
mechanical systems.
man, I was just going to post -- the charts all look so positive
for a bounce, I hope people at least set a stop at the open and
don't just sell. I know a system is a system, but with this
level of uncharted loss its ok to think twice about it.
I'm trailing it up but close to getting hit. I checked the
numbers on the Google spreadsheet I posted -- exit for the Multi
based on on the open price of 119.19 results in a 6.14% loss which
is obviously a lot better than the 11.78% max drawdown.
Great thought vida. One thing that would play into the total net
profit/loss is that the new system would have been also long from
112.26 to today's 119.19 after the initial -6.5% loss.
Yes, good points both kbgupta and burkmere.. kinda wanted to
point out that it has been important to maintain discipline on this
very tough trade. With this official exit my losses have been
reduced to acceptable. Would hate to have sold around 1120 level as
I was very tempted to. Hedging has helped.
trailed out 119.84 -- didn't want to give it much room since the
system had officially exited. Want to pass on some results since I
did something unusual -- intention is to pass on a possible
variation for risk management rather than blowing my own horn since
I still had a painful loss. I took the first trade in cash but
thanks to tumbler I decided to do the other 3 entries with call
options (Oct 130,126 and 122). Bottom line with everything closed
out the net loss was 4.38% vs what I expect to be the official
result of 6.14%. The conventional method with the better exit price
resulting from todays trailing stop I did would have given a 5.63%
loss. So the calls helped reduce risk. On the other hand I assume
they would have reduced total percent gains if the trade had
worked. Would be interested in hearing other risk management
strategies people used.
SPY System Record?
Posted by arthammond on 15th of Aug 2011 at 09:34 am
Just booked a $52k loss on the SPY trade. Have a set a record?
SPY System Record Loss
Posted by sethbru on 15th of Aug 2011 at 11:51 am
arthammond,
Misery loves company. I also took a much bigger loss than I imagined, but your $52K loss does top mine by quite a bit. Sorry for all of us.
Title: On the bright side I
Posted by jrwbfree on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:14 am
I just wish I had 52K to loose.......
my thoughts exactly!
Posted by frtaylor on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:17 am
my thoughts exactly!
Large percentage loss on my
Posted by pebs on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:13 am
Large percentage loss on my end as well unfortunately.
Ugh
Posted by trader8 on 15th of Aug 2011 at 09:50 am
Do you plan to keep following the system?
SPY Record
Posted by arthammond on 15th of Aug 2011 at 03:07 pm
Have to now!
I can't figure out...
Posted by trader8 on 15th of Aug 2011 at 03:14 pm
Whether I would be lacking discipline if I were not to take the next trade or whether I would be silly to keep following the system, which might just not "work." Could always trade with less money than the last trade, but again, the discipline thing. Not trying to bash, just wondering what others are thinking and what Matt plans to do going forward with his personal money with which he is trading the system.
And one of my concerns
Posted by trader8 on 15th of Aug 2011 at 03:17 pm
And one of my concerns is that we keep getting tweaks going forward. No offense Matt, but IMO this has happened with the GDX system to some degree. Maybe it works great, but it just makes me question the validity of a "system" I guess (and that is true with any "system"). Appreciate all of the hard work here, but this has been a tough one to swallow for someone who has been "disciplined" and following. Just wondering what others thoughts are please. Thanks.
Trader8, I tend to disagree. One
Posted by dougmil on 15th of Aug 2011 at 03:57 pm
Trader8,
I tend to disagree. One thing I appreciate about Matt's work is that he is working hard to improve both GDX and SPY systems and is pretty quick to impliment something he believes is better. He always gives us an explanation as to why it is better and backtests. Not sure why I would want him to slow down those efforts. I trade them both and have been happy with all the improvements, which I see as real improvements. So I don't mind when the system I'm trading is improved. These are both awesome mechanical systems.
Doug Milliken
Thanks for the input, Doug.
Posted by trader8 on 15th of Aug 2011 at 04:04 pm
Appreciate it.
man, I was just going
Posted by Michael on 15th of Aug 2011 at 09:48 am
man, I was just going to post -- the charts all look so positive for a bounce, I hope people at least set a stop at the open and don't just sell. I know a system is a system, but with this level of uncharted loss its ok to think twice about it.
I'm trailing it up but
Posted by bkout3 on 15th of Aug 2011 at 09:57 am
I'm trailing it up but close to getting hit. I checked the numbers on the Google spreadsheet I posted -- exit for the Multi based on on the open price of 119.19 results in a 6.14% loss which is obviously a lot better than the 11.78% max drawdown.
It's better than the 6.5%
Posted by Vida on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:23 am
It's better than the 6.5% stop loss...
Great thought vida. One thing
Posted by kbgupta on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:28 am
Great thought vida. One thing that would play into the total net profit/loss is that the new system would have been also long from 112.26 to today's 119.19 after the initial -6.5% loss.
The Single Entry Loss was 8.47%.
Posted by burkmere on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:30 am
Yes, good points both kbgupta
Posted by Vida on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:44 am
Yes, good points both kbgupta and burkmere.. kinda wanted to point out that it has been important to maintain discipline on this very tough trade. With this official exit my losses have been reduced to acceptable. Would hate to have sold around 1120 level as I was very tempted to. Hedging has helped.
I'm still holding...
Posted by burkmere on 15th of Aug 2011 at 11:07 am
I'll see what options week strength provides...
continuing to trail up....internals looking
Posted by bkout3 on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:19 am
continuing to trail up....internals looking good at the moment
Title: some various results trailed out
Posted by bkout3 on 15th of Aug 2011 at 11:11 am
trailed out 119.84 -- didn't want to give it much room since the system had officially exited. Want to pass on some results since I did something unusual -- intention is to pass on a possible variation for risk management rather than blowing my own horn since I still had a painful loss. I took the first trade in cash but thanks to tumbler I decided to do the other 3 entries with call options (Oct 130,126 and 122). Bottom line with everything closed out the net loss was 4.38% vs what I expect to be the official result of 6.14%. The conventional method with the better exit price resulting from todays trailing stop I did would have given a 5.63% loss. So the calls helped reduce risk. On the other hand I assume they would have reduced total percent gains if the trade had worked. Would be interested in hearing other risk management strategies people used.
Yep, using the 20ema on
Posted by Vida on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:33 am
Yep, using the 20ema on 5min chart as support. Although we just painted two tick extremes at 1200 resistance..