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Yep, using the 20ema on

SPY System Record?

Posted by Vida on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:33 am

Yep, using the 20ema on 5min chart as support. Although we just painted two tick extremes at 1200 resistance..

It's better than the 6.5%

SPY System Record?

Posted by Vida on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:23 am

It's better than the 6.5% stop loss...

I know what you mean,

Posted by Vida on 10th of Aug 2011 at 03:51 pm

I know what you mean, I can't wait for it to give the signal to exit!

I'm an idiot at options

Portfolio Armour

Posted by Vida on 10th of Aug 2011 at 11:36 am

I'm an idiot at options but doesn't a collar limit potential profit? That would really skew the spy system results. I welcome the discussion and other ideas though.

Well, of course you'd have

Portfolio Armour

Posted by Vida on 10th of Aug 2011 at 09:40 am

Well, of course you'd have to discount the cost of the hedge to the trade and it would definitely affect overall profits and performance. Probably best for use on a discretionary basis to help sleep at night whilst following system signals rigorously... Tongue out

Portfolio Armour

Posted by Vida on 10th of Aug 2011 at 08:50 am

This is a bit like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted... but there was a great poston Slope today about hedging one's portfolio using optimal puts (cheapest possible puts for a specified level of protection). The program referred to is Portfolio Armour and is available on a pretty cheap sub. basis. Just exploring possibilities here...

Nobody seems to remember that

Posted by Vida on 10th of Aug 2011 at 07:02 am

Nobody seems to remember that the trade is still ongoing. We should reserve judgment until the trade is officially closed to be able to evaluate correctly.

Your comment "nothing like the noose to focus the mind" is spot on! I've also had to trade much larger positions than I normally do. I've actually done well but of course still red due to the spy system position. But in a way, thanks to the system I've been much more decisive and nimble.

All my other long positions were stopped out in a timely manner and normally I'd be watching things with popcorn. I am also doing the multi and we may still get out of this OK, but it's been a real lesson on mental fortitude. When the system gives an exit it will be a relief. I am afraid of a small bounce and then further fall to new lows before a larger rally...

Doing something similar with the same instrument but day trading on 5 minute charts which is the only way one could get positioned once the freefall started. It is the only thing that has allowed me to hold on to my position and compensate somewhat for the drawdown. This has been a real learning experience on getting a grip on emotions. It has been stressful, I've had to trade furiously around the position. You have to be pretty disciplined with taking profits on a hedge as you don't want the trade to go against you and turn into more losses, but then you have to hedge again as major support areas get taken out. The only complaint I have is that I am supposed to be on a holiday!

Agreed. I have it on

AAPL symmetrical triangle

Posted by Vida on 9th of Jun 2011 at 12:14 pm

Agreed. I have it on the daily as a break of the triangle which it is still below. I imagine that is because our trendlines touch the previous 329.42 low.

Ditch, the YES on your

hammer

Posted by Vida on 8th of Jun 2011 at 09:51 am

Ditch, the YES on your chart is exactly what I meant! Thanks for posting it.

Steve, thanks for the link.

hammer

Posted by Vida on 8th of Jun 2011 at 09:48 am

Steve, thanks for the link. This must be the pattern that Hurricane Malta was referring to. I got rid of the psychological impulse to pick tops and bottoms without valid trade set ups a quite a while ago and my account is alot happier for that!

Correct me if I am

hammer

Posted by Vida on 8th of Jun 2011 at 09:07 am

Correct me if I am wrong but I thought that  tweezer bottom (or top) is in reference to the appearance of a two bar (OHLC) pattern on a bar chart. The tweezer is formed by a large down day with prices opening and then trending down to close at the low, to be followed by the opposite, an open at the lows with prices trending upwards to close at the high. On a candlestick chart this would look like a large red candle followed by an equally large green candle. This indicates that selling has found a floor and could be a turning point.

Yesterday's candle indicated to me that prices tried to go up but could not break the first resistance at 1296 area and sold off, so bearish for now. It is an inside day however, so a potential long trade on a break of the high (and short on a break of the low).

Aww... she's already gorgeous and

Baby Pictures

Posted by Vida on 20th of May 2011 at 04:39 pm

Aww... she's already gorgeous and with a name like Olivia Scarlett I don't see how she won't triumph in life!

Sounds like you are talking

SBUX - update

Posted by Vida on 19th of May 2011 at 04:05 pm

Sounds like you are talking about some kind of super bra... sorry couldn't resist!

Funny, I am long gold

GLD/SLV ratio

Posted by Vida on 11th of May 2011 at 02:56 pm

Funny, I am long gold futures and short silver.

Silver futures retraced 38.2 percent

SLV

Posted by Vida on 11th of May 2011 at 10:04 am

Silver futures retraced 38.2 percent of the drop, tagged 39.35 area and promptly fell off a cliff. So even with the news of increased margins (I did not know about this) the technical picture makes sense.

Let me join the chorus

Baby coming - Important!

Posted by Vida on 9th of May 2011 at 12:40 pm

Let me join the chorus of well wishers: congratulations!

Thanks! Very useful and interesting. The copper chart is also compelling especially when compared to the daily copper futures chart. Looks like 4.07-9 is important support (54-54.5 level JJC). I'll be keeping an eye on this.

EXK not looking too bad either. Holding 50MA as of yesterday.

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