Microsoft and Alphabet report after close on Tuesday with Meta following on Wednesday.  Likely we see more pressure on Monday and Tuesday with a recovery starting Wednesday.  My guess is as good as yours.

My account has taken huge (embarrassed to say how large) losses this week.  I was looking good on Monday and was hoping for some sort of relief rally to cover some of those losses.  There's no sign of a bottom and with back to back to back 50+ point down says I am thinking I should just cut bait.  Can anyone point me to technicals they are looking at for levels as the next one I see isn't another 50-100 points away.

It's overshooting it and that's what we want to see following by a bounce

That's right at the 200 SMA.  Nice chart indeed.

Sure hope this is a capitulation down and open nonsense.  I’m holding 3 entries on the RSI oversold into the weekend unless we are stopped out.

VVIX also closed outside its upper BB today.

This move down not only caught the 200EMA on ES but exact symmetry on the move done from 9/29 to 10/4 and the move down that started on 10/12, i.e. ~135points.

And there ya have it…  down we go

I cannot make sense of today's action; constant chop and no direction on the ES.  I get the sense it's going to sh*t the bed in the final hour but having a hard time finding a target in either direction.  What are other's seeing?

On the downside I am seeing 4310 (61.8 retracement of recent move up) and 4280-4290 (pivot points) as possible support.  

On the upside it has to take out 4350-4370 before the close for any change in structure.

We remain in this downward channel since the highs on Tuesday.   I am also worried this may negate the trend hold on the RSI oversold which I was hoping would ride for a few weeks.  I am not liking the look of this at all.

The only positive, which is completely random, is the past 10 pre-election years saw the S&P 500 bottom today (on average).

Awesome car Matt!  Depending on how this month goes for me I am looking to get a VW R.  

Steve.  Wishing your wife a very blessed and healthy 60th birthday.  It makes me so happy to see these milestones shared in the community and make it feel more like a family here.  

To add to this view, I am staring at chart for a potential relief bounce on /ES.  I went back to Aug-Oct of last year when we had a 19% correction over 57 days.  Using that as a point of reference, 4221.75 would be a 50% retracement.   The 200d SMA is at 4228 and a potential support zone between 4175 and 4208.5.  I certainly don't think this is the bottom but I can imagine a Wave 4 bounce to ~4440.  Thoughts?

Matt I super appreciate you and your candidness, your vulnerability with us, and making us better traders.

Am I pissed off that I lost all my gains and then some for the year.  Absolutely.

However, I am 90% pissed at myself, 10% pissed at the system, and 0% at you.  Ultimately, I chose to take the trade, I chose the dollar allocation, and I chose the stops.  For 8 months of the year I stuck to the letter of the law and used data.  For September, I reverted back to old habits and using emotion/feelings and it bit me hard.

So now the question is, what do I do about?  I am going to continue following the systems, use the same dollar allocations, but stick to stops based on data and not on feelings.  If burning 8 months of work in 1 month isn't a lesson I learn, that is on me and not on you.  If anything, I am glad that you continue being my copilot and that I will be able to make some of that make over the rest of 2023.

Onwards and upwards brother!

I have a bunch of Nov calls options on SPY (entered around 4400)  that are taking too much heat.  I agree with you Steve, I am going to have to take this one on the jaw and bail.

Bottom of channel breaking now (which also happens to be right around the 200d MA).  The A's are also gone now.  I'm having a tough time finding the next level of support.  Maybe its that open gap you pointed out on SPX.

ES's final stand?  What happens here should be telling.  Demark 9 here on the SPX daily and some A's showing up on the 4h and 15 min.  How the day ends will be important to see what happens next.

A few observations:

1. We just closed the gap on ES from 6-9 - 6/12

2. We are approaching the measured move down of 287.5 point (7/24-814) points (from the high on Sept 1)

3. We are in a channel (downward sloping) from last Thursday to today

4. Powell speaks tmw

4240-4300 seems like a decent bottom at worse.

Thanks for the post; I entered these systems.

It may be early but I suspect we are close to a relief bounce.  A's showed up earlier in the day on the SPX daily and we are at Demark 9 across almost all the timeframes.  The VIX is approaching its Upper BB and the MA ribbons on all timeframes (except daily) are looking pretty wide on the SPY.  The Stochastics are looking for a confirm from the MACD but that's usually lagging.  

I am looking at the following levels for potential bounces on the ES:  4365, 4347, 4310, 4270.  

I am liking this entry and slowly averaging in.  It's hard to pick tops or bottoms so let's see.

We go down to the 200d MA soon but sure hope I can take advantage of a small bounce first.  Fingers crossed.

I think this is ES's last stand, a close below 4434.25 is the start of the bear market in my books.  I know a few systems are long but we are in a pretty precarious position.  Losing the 20d MA at 4487 today doesn't help.  There are a confluence of pivots at 4440-4443 so we will see if that provides any last line of support,  but things are not looking good at all.  I am squinting at the charts trying to find why I am wrong but can't find it.  Does anyone want to play devil's advocate?