Matt.  I am not sure VT is the right index to track world market performance vs US (on Slide 4) given VT is about 60% US and 40% world.  VFWSX excludes US markets.

• VT: https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vt#price
• VFWSX: https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vfwsx

Note the 30m HP KISS went long on this.

I am still hedging in case there is a 5th wave down given I see 4 waves here.

QQQ, SSO, and IWM are all new longs on the HP kiss.  Curious is the bulls are really back in control or this is just a whipsaw.

I didn't get the text alert on this.  Did anyone else?  Trying to figure out if it's my phone or something else.

He also said the Tesla Roadster was going to be available in 7 years; 7 years ago.  

Or will it be sell the news….

I guess the VIX bollinger band buy signal was valid and played out from earlier this week.  

Steve: Would you consider the Wave 3 still intact or was that dip a Wave 4  and now this is a Wave 5?  That dip from 2 weeks ago just felt too shallow to be a Wave 4.

I can play ball.  What do you need, Matt?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/tesla-tsla-q3-2025-earnings-report.html

Does anyone here for Polymarket?  Kind of surprised to see such strong confidence in bettors on a Tesla beat today.

The thing that has me worried is volume on up days has been lower than average meaning that we don't have the participation that I would expect if we are going to ATHs.  This is getting tricky to navigate.

FWIW, I didn't get the SMS for this even though I have it starred.

Tacos for everybody.

VIX Bollinger Band buy signal?

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&id=p15454815141&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&a=490691968&listNum=27

Given $VIX will close lower than Friday's close (which was inside the upper bollinger band); would that confirm a buy signal on the SPY?

TACO Trade strikes again

FWIW I took off my hedges this morning.  VIX looks like it's back to resting under 20 and we broke above that coiling pattern decisively.  With the weekly trend line holding either this Wave 3 has more to go or the Wave 4 was completed.   Didn't want to hold any shorts into earnings season.

Matt given the increased volatility and the seemingly strong bounce, I’m curious why none of the mean reversion systems triggered.  Is there some sort of technical reason why that would be?

I don't think so.  It was still an inside week, which shows me indecision and rebalancing after last Friday's big move.  As Matt said, next week will decide if this Wave 4 is over.

The bull case, zooming out, is that the weekly trend line held.

The indecisive case, on the 1 hour chart, is we are coiling and I count 4 waves; so reaction up here will be telling.

FWIW, I'm still holding shorts as a hedge.  The vix is at a support level.  Usually under 20 tells me things are stabilizing.  Above 20 is wild card.  So next week tells me if this pull back is like the August one (i.e. done) or like the April one (i.e. more to go).

To me, in order for Wave 4 to be done we need to pull back into the area I marked in green (so roughly 6400) and that's where I'll take my hedge off.  I'd love to see a wash out vs this somewhat orderly action.

I attached some charts to share my thoughts.  Anyway, my two cents.

Your call from last night's newsletter is the right one.  OPEX = lots of chops.  If you are a scalper you can make out well.  However, at the end of the day, we'll just end flat and then the real action / decisions will happen next week. 

I always find the headlines on CNBC funny; "market bounced cause Trump spoke on Fox or Bessent is meeting with China".  Market is doing what it always does.