At this point this is pretty unhinged.  Might as well start making up random numbers.  Let’s hope productive conversations happen soon.

Weekend Wall Street showing  a 2% dip on the open for DJI and BTC is already down 4%.  So here we go again....

There's been silence coming from DC so don't expect much, if anything, to change.

Do gaps in SPY also get filled in a manner similar to gaps on ES?  Also why don't we ever see any "As" on these violent moves on any timeframe.  I'd imagine the amateurs are selling everything no?

Still sliding in after hours.  ES lows tagged 5088.  Need one final flush to the 4900 area before we see a relief bounce.  I need it to recoup all the longs I was holding.

The lows will not happen until another 5% move from today's lows - around 4860 on ES.  

I have been playing around in ToS and creating customer studies.  Recently I created a model that uses a 10-period simple moving average of highs and lows, combined with a 0.8×ATR(200) buffer, to confirm directional breakouts. A long triggers when price closes above the 10-SMA of highs plus the ATR buffer; a short triggers on a close below the 10-SMA of lows minus the buffer. Signals are only valid after a confirmed bar close to avoid repainting.

On the surface, it seems pretty effective (see the last 20 days on a 1 hour chart of ES).  I’m looking for feedback on where this logic might break down.  Particularly in chop or low-volatility conditions — and how best to filter noise without suppressing valid trend entries.

What do you all think?

Ya not looking good at all.  The end of month inflows seems to not have materialized so I wonder if the dead cat bounce is over.

I think the technical term is gravestone doji.  Did I get that right?  Clearly the the bears are trying to push down buyers.  Given the tariffs back drop I still think buyers put up a hell of a fight.  We'll need to see the price action tmw to see if the bounce is done or not me thinks. If the next session closes lower, that strengthens the bearish signal or vice versa.

All things considered the bulls are putting up a fight.  The market had every reason to dump hard today and it’s holding up.  The close today will be interesting.  If ES can close above 5750 that’s a positive sign.  We knew the gap from Monday had to be filled and here we are.

It's healthy for the VIX to reset here since it was at its lower Bollinger Bands.  You want these things to take a break if you want a sustained push in either direction.

Can’t one argue the same for SPY?  Reverse divergence on both RSO and MACD but within a rising wedge?

Today was a big nothing burger.  Almost as if the markets were closed.

And a down day for indexes and VIX.   Hmmmm....

And just noticed the overnight gap on VX that needed backfilling.  

And let's not forget yesterday left a gap at the open for both ES and NQ.  I'd rather those gaps get filled sooner than later.  Not a bad thing.

Am I doing the math right that the Bull Exhaustion would have a profit whereas CCI and QE BTS would be a loss.  Maybe it was my entry prices.

Hang in there mastermind.  I feel ya.  Every time I think I've adjusted, I learn that I haven't adjusted enough.  I rarely do discretionary trades anymore.  Even in this down trend I've stuck to system trades and to the same position sizes that I have for the past 2 years knowing these things don't hold for longer than 2 weeks generally.  Guess what, this time I was wrong.  Like you, I am in all the systems just waiting for the bounce while my options decay.  So after the systems exit I need to update my strategy.  Unsure what the learning is this time around.

I have a bunch of SPY options from the systems trades that expire at the end of April that are all down 80%.  Does anyone have suggestions on how to roll those with minimal impact?

That it's held ~5600 is a good sign.  It's not going to be a straight line.  Until it breaks this channel it's been in, you're going to get chop.  I want to see it build above 5700.  If it can do that, we can say we have a short term bottom.  We also want to see the VX get smashed down to below 20.

I wonder if what Matt called out yesterday is the thing that’s playing out.  Yes you have the tape bombs from Orange man but all things considered today the reaction to today’s tape bomb feels quaint.