Posted by patellee on 20th of Sep 2023 at 04:19 pm
I think this is ES's last stand, a close below 4434.25 is the
start of the bear market in my books. I know a few systems
are long but we are in a pretty precarious position. Losing
the 20d MA at 4487 today doesn't help. There are a confluence
of pivots at 4440-4443 so we will see if that provides any last
line of support, but things are not looking good at all.
I am squinting at the charts trying to find why I am wrong
but can't find it. Does anyone want to play devil's
advocate?
Posted by limitless on 20th of Sep 2023 at 04:54 pm
Posted by mastermind on 20th of Sep 2023 at 04:40 pm
I'm pretty sure that IBD will throw in the towel on their
short-lived confirmed rally. My outsized hedges finally came into
play and I sold half of SQQQ and UVXY at the close. Maybe China
will follow us down and YANG will get farther in the money too.
Took some profits earlier on PFIE, GSHD and ELTK, which I've been
pretty patient with. Stops throughout the day in CELH, CVNA
& NTES. Took the DASH short that was suggested and
disappointed to see it not get dragged down with the market, at
least not yet.
exactly, the onus is on the 'bulls' That said as far as mean
reversion systems, VERY little is active, one sub system out of 22
has a 1st entry, that's nothing. In times of deep correction it's
normal to have 2, 3, maybe 4 sub systems all in trades at the same
time, with some of them in 2nd and 3rd entries, so one sub system
in one entry is just nothing. That's just the way the mean
reversion systems trade, they scale in and are early at
times.
And yes some of the KISS systems are long but they will simply
stop out. the KISS systems tend to behave as follows, they catch a
nice trending trade, then go through a whipsaw - the last
trades were nice winners so odds may favor a whipsaw.
onus is on the bulls - they need to rally this right away
otherwise the deeper ABC zig zag may be unfolding, which would be
fine with me, I'd love to see SPX pull back into the mid 4200's,
would be a good buy area
Dollar strong, rates strong, etc
Posted by limitless on 20th of Sep 2023 at 04:51 pm
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I think this is ES's
Posted by patellee on 20th of Sep 2023 at 04:19 pm
I think this is ES's last stand, a close below 4434.25 is the start of the bear market in my books. I know a few systems are long but we are in a pretty precarious position. Losing the 20d MA at 4487 today doesn't help. There are a confluence of pivots at 4440-4443 so we will see if that provides any last line of support, but things are not looking good at all. I am squinting at the charts trying to find why I am wrong but can't find it. Does anyone want to play devil's advocate?
Posted by limitless on 20th of Sep 2023 at 04:54 pm
I'm pretty sure that IBD
Posted by mastermind on 20th of Sep 2023 at 04:40 pm
I'm pretty sure that IBD will throw in the towel on their short-lived confirmed rally. My outsized hedges finally came into play and I sold half of SQQQ and UVXY at the close. Maybe China will follow us down and YANG will get farther in the money too. Took some profits earlier on PFIE, GSHD and ELTK, which I've been pretty patient with. Stops throughout the day in CELH, CVNA & NTES. Took the DASH short that was suggested and disappointed to see it not get dragged down with the market, at least not yet.
exactly, the onus is on
Posted by matt on 20th of Sep 2023 at 04:25 pm
exactly, the onus is on the 'bulls' That said as far as mean reversion systems, VERY little is active, one sub system out of 22 has a 1st entry, that's nothing. In times of deep correction it's normal to have 2, 3, maybe 4 sub systems all in trades at the same time, with some of them in 2nd and 3rd entries, so one sub system in one entry is just nothing. That's just the way the mean reversion systems trade, they scale in and are early at times.
And yes some of the KISS systems are long but they will simply stop out. the KISS systems tend to behave as follows, they catch a nice trending trade, then go through a whipsaw - the last trades were nice winners so odds may favor a whipsaw.
onus is on the bulls - they need to rally this right away otherwise the deeper ABC zig zag may be unfolding, which would be fine with me, I'd love to see SPX pull back into the mid 4200's, would be a good buy area
Dollar strong, rates strong, etc
Posted by limitless on 20th of Sep 2023 at 04:51 pm