When you break a major support zone/trendline, the reaction is
hard and swift and the sell pressure likely to continue - bulls
will need to reclaim a prior high. Prefer to see the
Nasdaq/NDX align by making a new low as well but the SPX has
achieved such conditions. Not fighting this trend -
need evidence for me to play. ES has been trading around the
4254 pivot area for some time now so simply monitoring - follow
your plan. So many questions with this speakership just
adding more uncertainty - will trade level to level as
stated.
I have a bunch of Nov calls options on SPY (entered around 4400)
that are taking too much heat. I agree with you Steve,
I am going to have to take this one on the jaw and bail.
I have a love/hate relationship with the mean reversion systems.
I like them a lot, but I also hate times like this when they go
through draw down. It creates a retrograde stress for me, not about
my account, I always worry a lot more about you guys and how you
are doing, who's going to get pissed off or whatever - it's really
hard on me.
that said; when I added all the trades to all the 21 sub
systems, that created a lot more entries, which is both good and
bad. Good as it gives more trade opportunities and also is part of
the risk mitigation where if one system or systems enter to early,
chances are some other system will take a position at much better
prices and make up for those. But it does add complication with all
the various systems and 2nd and 3rd entries can be a lot during
times like this.
Some things that I may consider for the future and that you can
consider:
1. If the same sub system is triggering on both SPY and MES on
the same day for the same trade, don't take them both, take only
one of them. That will help limit the number of entries.
2. Yet another thing I've thought about is: Currently the sub
systems have up to 3 entries each. An idea that would greatly limit
the number of trades is to only take 1 entry per system. Obviously
1st entries can be quite early at times but that's fine, instead of
taking a 2nd and 3rd entry - more often than not, a new sub system
will take a 1st entry at lower prices which could act as your 2nd
and 3rd entry
anyway just some thoughts. But realize - when they systems go
through this, its probably more stressful on me because I'm
thinking about all of you
The whole point of a trading systems is high winning percentage
over time, which your systems provide in spades. It's unreasonable
to expect a legitimate rule based system to be 100% winners. High
PROBABILITY of success with MINIMIZED downside... that's a pretty
tall order and these systems have delivered for years. Don't beat
yourself up.
I concur! Is it painful to take a draw down? Of course...
But am I up overall over time and doing better than I would
on my own? Absolutely.
Only grateful for all that BPT offers. Sucks to take some heat
but well worth it for the overall result and that's just part of
life. Good time to meditate and learn how to deal with the stress
that my own brain creates. That's not on anyone else!
Posted by jackbnimble on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 04:46 pm
Matt- The systems are great and they have been amazing! It is up
to each of us to decide weather to take the trade or not.
They cannot all be winners, what is this Pleasantville? LOL!
Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 04:16 pm
Matt, don't beat yourself up. Systems are simply algorithms...
the point is to remove emotions not add negative ones on top. The
systems are great. There's no such thing as a perfect system that
wins every time.
I've commented many times on my struggle to create a systems for
the systems. I enter just about every trade through a rebalancing
tool. I carry 90% plus cash in normal times because of my trading
strategy. Needless to say, if a 1st entry is 10% then I would be up
to 60% by the 3rd entry. Obviously, I can't use all the systems
with this allocation profile so I just stick to one (two if one is
in the opposite direction). Anyway, it's my problem to solve,
not yours. Appreciate all you share with us! I know everybody
can't trade all day long but I find the intraday updates on the
systems to be huge. If I knew I couldn't act on intraday
signals I'd probably take less risk with the systems. Just
something each of us needs to work out for our own risk tolerance
and trading style.
Matt I super appreciate you and your candidness, your
vulnerability with us, and making us better traders.
Am I pissed off that I lost all my gains and then some for
the year. Absolutely.
However, I am 90% pissed at myself, 10% pissed at the system,
and 0% at you. Ultimately, I chose to take the trade, I chose
the dollar allocation, and I chose the stops. For 8 months of
the year I stuck to the letter of the law and used data. For
September, I reverted back to old habits and using emotion/feelings
and it bit me hard.
So now the question is, what do I do about? I am going
to continue following the systems, use the same dollar allocations,
but stick to stops based on data and not on feelings. If
burning 8 months of work in 1 month isn't a lesson I learn, that is
on me and not on you. If anything, I am glad that you
continue being my copilot and that I will be able to make some of
that make over the rest of 2023.
Onwards and upwards brother!
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When you break a major
Posted by steve on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 03:26 pm
When you break a major support zone/trendline, the reaction is hard and swift and the sell pressure likely to continue - bulls will need to reclaim a prior high. Prefer to see the Nasdaq/NDX align by making a new low as well but the SPX has achieved such conditions. Not fighting this trend - need evidence for me to play. ES has been trading around the 4254 pivot area for some time now so simply monitoring - follow your plan. So many questions with this speakership just adding more uncertainty - will trade level to level as stated.
I have a bunch of
Posted by patellee on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 03:31 pm
I have a bunch of Nov calls options on SPY (entered around 4400) that are taking too much heat. I agree with you Steve, I am going to have to take this one on the jaw and bail.
I have a love/hate relationship
Posted by matt on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 04:06 pm
I have a love/hate relationship with the mean reversion systems. I like them a lot, but I also hate times like this when they go through draw down. It creates a retrograde stress for me, not about my account, I always worry a lot more about you guys and how you are doing, who's going to get pissed off or whatever - it's really hard on me.
that said; when I added all the trades to all the 21 sub systems, that created a lot more entries, which is both good and bad. Good as it gives more trade opportunities and also is part of the risk mitigation where if one system or systems enter to early, chances are some other system will take a position at much better prices and make up for those. But it does add complication with all the various systems and 2nd and 3rd entries can be a lot during times like this.
Some things that I may consider for the future and that you can consider:
1. If the same sub system is triggering on both SPY and MES on the same day for the same trade, don't take them both, take only one of them. That will help limit the number of entries.
2. Yet another thing I've thought about is: Currently the sub systems have up to 3 entries each. An idea that would greatly limit the number of trades is to only take 1 entry per system. Obviously 1st entries can be quite early at times but that's fine, instead of taking a 2nd and 3rd entry - more often than not, a new sub system will take a 1st entry at lower prices which could act as your 2nd and 3rd entry
anyway just some thoughts. But realize - when they systems go through this, its probably more stressful on me because I'm thinking about all of you
The whole point of a
Posted by bulf6285 on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 05:14 pm
The whole point of a trading systems is high winning percentage over time, which your systems provide in spades. It's unreasonable to expect a legitimate rule based system to be 100% winners. High PROBABILITY of success with MINIMIZED downside... that's a pretty tall order and these systems have delivered for years. Don't beat yourself up.
I concur! Is it painful
Posted by greggone on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 05:23 pm
I concur! Is it painful to take a draw down? Of course... But am I up overall over time and doing better than I would on my own? Absolutely.
Only grateful for all that BPT offers. Sucks to take some heat but well worth it for the overall result and that's just part of life. Good time to meditate and learn how to deal with the stress that my own brain creates. That's not on anyone else!
check your email - I
Posted by matt on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 05:48 pm
check your email - I just sent out the email for the mean reversion systems, and I also updated the section on the website
Matt- The systems are great
Posted by jackbnimble on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 04:46 pm
Matt- The systems are great and they have been amazing! It is up to each of us to decide weather to take the trade or not. They cannot all be winners, what is this Pleasantville? LOL!
You are good human being.
Posted by nichi on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 04:18 pm
You are good human being. Your underserved communities, like my Doctor Children.
Matt, don't beat yourself up.
Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 04:16 pm
Matt, don't beat yourself up. Systems are simply algorithms... the point is to remove emotions not add negative ones on top. The systems are great. There's no such thing as a perfect system that wins every time.
I've commented many times on my struggle to create a systems for the systems. I enter just about every trade through a rebalancing tool. I carry 90% plus cash in normal times because of my trading strategy. Needless to say, if a 1st entry is 10% then I would be up to 60% by the 3rd entry. Obviously, I can't use all the systems with this allocation profile so I just stick to one (two if one is in the opposite direction). Anyway, it's my problem to solve, not yours. Appreciate all you share with us! I know everybody can't trade all day long but I find the intraday updates on the systems to be huge. If I knew I couldn't act on intraday signals I'd probably take less risk with the systems. Just something each of us needs to work out for our own risk tolerance and trading style.
Matt I super appreciate you
Posted by patellee on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 04:15 pm
Matt I super appreciate you and your candidness, your vulnerability with us, and making us better traders.
Am I pissed off that I lost all my gains and then some for the year. Absolutely.
However, I am 90% pissed at myself, 10% pissed at the system, and 0% at you. Ultimately, I chose to take the trade, I chose the dollar allocation, and I chose the stops. For 8 months of the year I stuck to the letter of the law and used data. For September, I reverted back to old habits and using emotion/feelings and it bit me hard.
So now the question is, what do I do about? I am going to continue following the systems, use the same dollar allocations, but stick to stops based on data and not on feelings. If burning 8 months of work in 1 month isn't a lesson I learn, that is on me and not on you. If anything, I am glad that you continue being my copilot and that I will be able to make some of that make over the rest of 2023.
Onwards and upwards brother!