Posted by patellee on 19th of Oct 2023 at 01:54 pm
I cannot make sense of today's action; constant chop and no
direction on the ES. I get the sense it's going to sh*t the
bed in the final hour but having a hard time finding a target in
either direction. What are other's seeing?
On the downside I am seeing 4310 (61.8 retracement of recent
move up) and 4280-4290 (pivot points) as possible support.
On the upside it has to take out 4350-4370 before the close
for any change in structure.
We remain in this downward channel since the highs on
Tuesday. I am also worried this may negate the trend hold on
the RSI oversold which I was hoping would ride for a few weeks.
I am not liking the look of this at all.
The only positive, which is completely random, is the past 10
pre-election years saw the S&P 500 bottom today (on
average).
We also have OPEX tomorrow and we often have a rollover right
afterwards and that might be a bottoming period. I also noted on
your chart that the typical rally gets weak again mid November.
Thanks
Posted by pmahoney on 19th of Oct 2023 at 02:26 pm
Market is going to need to fight against higher longer term
yields for foreseeable future. Fed is not coming to the
rescue anytime soon with GDP growth so high and could raise again.
Consumers will continue to spend, spend, spend until
they hit their credit card limits. Food prices still high,
gas prices still high, car prices still high. More and more
debt coming.
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I cannot make sense of
Posted by patellee on 19th of Oct 2023 at 01:54 pm
I cannot make sense of today's action; constant chop and no direction on the ES. I get the sense it's going to sh*t the bed in the final hour but having a hard time finding a target in either direction. What are other's seeing?
On the downside I am seeing 4310 (61.8 retracement of recent move up) and 4280-4290 (pivot points) as possible support.
On the upside it has to take out 4350-4370 before the close for any change in structure.
We remain in this downward channel since the highs on Tuesday. I am also worried this may negate the trend hold on the RSI oversold which I was hoping would ride for a few weeks. I am not liking the look of this at all.
The only positive, which is completely random, is the past 10 pre-election years saw the S&P 500 bottom today (on average).
And there ya have it…
Posted by patellee on 19th of Oct 2023 at 02:41 pm
And there ya have it… down we go
We also have OPEX tomorrow
Posted by rbreese on 19th of Oct 2023 at 02:03 pm
We also have OPEX tomorrow and we often have a rollover right afterwards and that might be a bottoming period. I also noted on your chart that the typical rally gets weak again mid November. Thanks
yes good point on OPEX,
Posted by matt on 19th of Oct 2023 at 02:12 pm
yes good point on OPEX, but as far as the market, the bears clearly have the football until it's intercepted
Market is going to need
Posted by pmahoney on 19th of Oct 2023 at 02:26 pm
Market is going to need to fight against higher longer term yields for foreseeable future. Fed is not coming to the rescue anytime soon with GDP growth so high and could raise again. Consumers will continue to spend, spend, spend until they hit their credit card limits. Food prices still high, gas prices still high, car prices still high. More and more debt coming.