Nice. Pretty happy with gold in dollar terms as well.

I don't think of it in terms of right or wrong, just different groups with different goals. The Commercials are running businesses that often require them to hedge forward -- either selling their production for future delivery to guarantee cash flow or buying forward to lock-in costs. The producers tend, though, to sell more forward at extreme high prices and less near lows. The consumers, obviously, buy more near lows and less near highs. Matt's long-term data tracking looks for those extremes in the commercials, especially the gold producers.

The non-commercials are speculators and want to be profitable directionally. They crowd trades at extremes and will inevitably be wrong at turns because they tend to herd. The Z-scores I put out, show whether they are stretching the rubber band on 1 & 3 year timeframes.

Does that help? Both are most helpful at extremes.

Haven't posted this in a while. Look at the consensus long ES. Huge week over week delta.

We're going to hit 110 today. You're at 120, right?

That vote is a crap shoot. The polls are 50-50 if you take the range of error into account. So it's really an unpredictable binary event that will best be traded after the fact. And now staying is being priced in, so the risk shifts to the downside.

To restate the obvious, monetary and fiscal central planning policies have crowded out investment, suppressed price discovery and killed growth worldwide. Interest rates correlate to growth rates. 

US 10 year yield under Spain's now. There's been no reason for US treasuries to be higher than any EU long bond for a long time now. The fundamentals remain to the downside in rates. But trade the technicals.

Thanks for the detail, Matt.

Got it. Used them in the past with the terminal; don't now and have comparable approaches.

He only has about 150 indicators at this point, but the basic sequential indicators from the 70s are pretty good. Who's going to have access to them on this board, though? As the article points out, you need to understand them well. I've talked with Jason Perl before and have his book, but haven't had access to TD indicators for a while. You may recall that Demark has had at least one pretty big call fail in the latter part of this bull market. But are you proposing to share signals or what?

Rates down is a factor for gold; TLT up .65% today.

Rates down & dollar down is ideal.

Thanks, Steve! Looking forward to it.

Just set up a short term chart for each contract and roll when the volume becomes the majority in the front month.

Could also be related to UNH pulling out of almost all Obamacare exchanges and stopping the hemorrhage.

He's the one who donned the wig. Not photoshopped.

Tim's finest moment

All the best to you and your wife on that milestone. Our 25th is in July.

Russell consolidation today

Got it. No problem. Just couldn't believe there was much change on a day like today.

Seeing middle of range on this link, as well as CPC. Is there another at an extreme?