I don't think of it in terms of right or wrong, just different groups with different goals. The Commercials are running businesses that often require them to hedge forward -- either selling their production for future delivery to guarantee cash flow or buying forward to lock-in costs. The producers tend, though, to sell more forward at extreme high prices and less near lows. The consumers, obviously, buy more near lows and less near highs. Matt's long-term data tracking looks for those extremes in the commercials, especially the gold producers.

The non-commercials are speculators and want to be profitable directionally. They crowd trades at extremes and will inevitably be wrong at turns because they tend to herd. The Z-scores I put out, show whether they are stretching the rubber band on 1 & 3 year timeframes.

Does that help? Both are most helpful at extremes.