Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 07:43 pm
IBKR - this is a good one with a banger of a chart and insane
fundamentals. I've been waiting for a pullback but that ABC on the
2 hour that started on April 25th might be it for the time
being.
I would like to suggest that, in Newsletter, Sector Updates,
that the "% G/L for Week" be changed to "% G/L trailing 7 Days".
Reason - Monday, that column has no value, Tuesday, tiny
value, etc... Thanks!
ha ha about Japanese wifey - funny you brought that up, one of
the biggest problems they are facing is negative population growth,
young people there are not interested in sex or at least
children.
even China has that issue - despite removing that 1 child
policy, apparently one of their last census readings they were a
few hundred million off lower than what they had been quoting their
population number.
I don't have the article in front of me but I remember reading a
comparison of China vs India in this respect - the average
collective age in India is like 12 or 15 years younger than in
China! This is a big deal because as we know you need enough
young people workers to support the aging population - India
has a far younger average age than China and thus doesn't have that
approaching problem - which will be a problem for China unless
their birth rate goes up
Despite changing the policy, many people are finding it too
expensive to have multiple kids. Not to mention going broke trying
to get decent housing due to that massively inflated bubble.
There's a lot of weird cultural things baked in now, too, A
friend refers to her cousins as "brother/sister", since no one my
age (millenials) has a blood related sibling anymore.
And the younger internet culture sayings "laying flat", or
"let it all rot"
Frankly I get depressed looking at the demographic growth
case for most places. I guess you have India and southeast
Asia...
Peter Zeihan has been talking about this for awhile now ,....
interesting stuff ... Demographics are like the "Quarterly charts"
for us traders ...lol .. slow moving, but trends are
very significant when they develop ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of May 2024 at 01:40 pm
Yep, very slow moving but significant trends. Only the Gen X and
above on here will likely remember how much Americans were envious
of Japan in the early 90's. They were CRUSHING it all over the
world and their kids seemed to be IDEAL - all of them were getting
into ivy leagues and other American colleges. I remember many of us
were wondering how it would be possible to compete with them...they
were like robots. They played concert piano, violin, spoke multiple
languages, got straight A's, took calc in elementary school, etc,
etc. So what was the outcome of that American envy? It
spawned that generation to become the 1st generation of helicopter
parents in America. A very Japanese style of parenting that
everyone envied in the 80's and 90's.....but the American style was
slightly different. They adopted the helicopter style but mostly
left out the discipline. As a result, we got Millennials and Gen Z.
As it turns out, neither style of helicopter parenting
turned out exceptionally. Trends matter.
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 05:27 pm
I'm jealous of Buffet, as usual. He borrowed an insane amount in
the Japanese system at near zero and invested it in assets. Most of
us can't get loans at Japanese rates like he can.
NAAIM Exposure Index Number is at a current level of
59.48, down from 62.98 last week and down from
78.26 one year ago. This is a change of -5.56% from last week and
-24.00% from one year ago.
SPXU - Chart Link- these had bullish setups on
their pullback, flag like, volume patterns etc. Also look at the
first moving average ribbon pinch/squeeze
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 04:04 pm
JPOW looking at dollar right now and wishing he would have been
a tad more dovish! Lol.
Serious question: does anyone know of a very successful
modern trader (e.g. not Jesse Livermore)....a market wizards
type..that doesn't maintain both a macro and fundamental view as
part of their process along with technical analysis? My
impression is that all the great traders, even most day traders,
use both, but I'm not positive about that.
Posted by icecoldjones on 1st of May 2024 at 03:59 pm
WOW! This has been a wild roller coaster the last 2 hours and I
apologize to everyone for having to listen to me rant as we're now
back to red on the day. It's so crazy how things like this can
cause SO MUCH volatility these days and I like how you guys said
that these Fed interviews used to mean nothing.
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 04:13 pm
Agree, but I've been waiting to really shift when the weekly
index charts were at an attractive buy point. Otherwise, switching
to a longer term strategy late in the cycle involves taking quite a
bit of risk with stop levels (the end of cycles is characterized by
increasing pattern failures until almost everything eventually
fails...and I'm just talking about a normal corrective phase). Of
course, I never dreamed I would be waiting so long.
Quantifying "late in the cycle" is a lot harder than it
sounds.
US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL
Posted by steve on 2nd of May 2024 at 08:33 am
US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL 208K (FORECAST 211K, PREVIOUS 207K
Bitcoin
Posted by matt on 2nd of May 2024 at 08:29 am
$BTCUSD - Chart Link- on Bitcoin we'll now see if that broke support acts as resistance on this bounce back up
$BTCUSD - Chart Link-
SPX and QQQ decent bounce
Posted by steve on 2nd of May 2024 at 08:02 am
SPX and QQQ decent bounce once again from demand overnight
AAII Sentiment Bulls 38.5 Bears
Posted by rbreese on 2nd of May 2024 at 07:46 am
AAII Sentiment Bulls 38.5 Bears 32.5 percent Small increase in bulls .
Does anyone know what time
Posted by rmoore100 on 1st of May 2024 at 09:50 pm
Does anyone know what time tomorrow the QRA data will be released ? Thanks !!
It was released this morning
Posted by steve on 1st of May 2024 at 09:51 pm
It was released this morning - see earlier posts in early am
IBKR - this is a
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 07:43 pm
IBKR - this is a good one with a banger of a chart and insane fundamentals. I've been waiting for a pullback but that ABC on the 2 hour that started on April 25th might be it for the time being.
Thanks for mentioning this one!
Posted by tradeit007 on 2nd of May 2024 at 09:55 am
Thanks for mentioning this one!
Althea with some explanation of
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 07:18 pm
Althea with some explanation of the stealth easing today
I would like to suggest
Posted by Walt on 1st of May 2024 at 06:40 pm
I would like to suggest that, in Newsletter, Sector Updates, that the "% G/L for Week" be changed to "% G/L trailing 7 Days". Reason - Monday, that column has no value, Tuesday, tiny value, etc... Thanks!
Have a nice evening all
Posted by steve on 1st of May 2024 at 06:26 pm
Have a nice evening all - away from the Desk with Family tonight
Wednesday Newsletter
Posted by steve on 1st of May 2024 at 06:25 pm
Wednesday Newsletter
BIG snapback up in futures
Posted by rbreese on 1st of May 2024 at 06:07 pm
BIG snapback up in futures at 6pm.
TLT - Treasury announced a
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 05:52 pm
TLT - Treasury announced a buy back today and bigger than even what was rumoured. I think it's kind of rude if I don't follow them in. Long TLT.
USDJPY - widow maker
Posted by steve on 1st of May 2024 at 05:23 pm
USDJPY - widow maker
I knew that was a
Posted by steveo on 2nd of May 2024 at 03:27 am
I knew that was a blow off top, asked wifey in Japan to convert all USD to JPY, 158
FXY - I don't have
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of May 2024 at 11:54 am
FXY - I don't have a Japanese wifey so I bought FXY calls instead. My sister lives in Bangkok, but the THB is still at the bottom of crash range.
EEM chart looks great. Close to breaking out of an 18 month base. I'm getting in at 42.20.
I bought it this morning,
Posted by matt on 2nd of May 2024 at 12:12 pm
I bought it this morning, FXI
ha ha about Japanese wifey - funny you brought that up, one of the biggest problems they are facing is negative population growth, young people there are not interested in sex or at least children.
even China has that issue
Posted by matt on 2nd of May 2024 at 12:16 pm
even China has that issue - despite removing that 1 child policy, apparently one of their last census readings they were a few hundred million off lower than what they had been quoting their population number.
I don't have the article in front of me but I remember reading a comparison of China vs India in this respect - the average collective age in India is like 12 or 15 years younger than in China! This is a big deal because as we know you need enough young people workers to support the aging population - India has a far younger average age than China and thus doesn't have that approaching problem - which will be a problem for China unless their birth rate goes up
Despite changing the policy, many
Posted by foody518 on 2nd of May 2024 at 03:05 pm
Despite changing the policy, many people are finding it too expensive to have multiple kids. Not to mention going broke trying to get decent housing due to that massively inflated bubble.
There's a lot of weird cultural things baked in now, too, A friend refers to her cousins as "brother/sister", since no one my age (millenials) has a blood related sibling anymore.
And the younger internet culture sayings "laying flat", or "let it all rot"
Frankly I get depressed looking at the demographic growth case for most places. I guess you have India and southeast Asia...
Peter Zeihan has been talking
Posted by mla127 on 2nd of May 2024 at 01:26 pm
Peter Zeihan has been talking about this for awhile now ,.... interesting stuff ... Demographics are like the "Quarterly charts" for us traders ...lol .. slow moving, but trends are very significant when they develop ...
Yep, very slow moving but
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of May 2024 at 01:40 pm
Yep, very slow moving but significant trends. Only the Gen X and above on here will likely remember how much Americans were envious of Japan in the early 90's. They were CRUSHING it all over the world and their kids seemed to be IDEAL - all of them were getting into ivy leagues and other American colleges. I remember many of us were wondering how it would be possible to compete with them...they were like robots. They played concert piano, violin, spoke multiple languages, got straight A's, took calc in elementary school, etc, etc. So what was the outcome of that American envy? It spawned that generation to become the 1st generation of helicopter parents in America. A very Japanese style of parenting that everyone envied in the 80's and 90's.....but the American style was slightly different. They adopted the helicopter style but mostly left out the discipline. As a result, we got Millennials and Gen Z. As it turns out, neither style of helicopter parenting turned out exceptionally. Trends matter.
Read an article that by
Posted by raymuy on 2nd of May 2024 at 01:24 pm
Read an article that by 2100 they are expecting only to have about max 700 000 000 Chinese anymore …..
I'm jealous of Buffet, as
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 05:27 pm
I'm jealous of Buffet, as usual. He borrowed an insane amount in the Japanese system at near zero and invested it in assets. Most of us can't get loans at Japanese rates like he can.
59.48 NAAIM Exposure Index Number is
Posted by rbreese on 1st of May 2024 at 05:10 pm
59.48
NAAIM Exposure Index Number is at a current level of 59.48, down from 62.98 last week and down from 78.26 one year ago. This is a change of -5.56% from last week and -24.00% from one year ago.
Change from Last Week: 11.44%
Region: United States
Value from Last Week: 93.22
CVNA +34
Posted by steve on 1st of May 2024 at 04:30 pm
CVNA +34
Well, should've held through earnings
Posted by mastermind on 1st of May 2024 at 05:05 pm
Well, should've held through earnings this time.
115.81 Should tag coming back.....
Posted by breakout on 1st of May 2024 at 04:48 pm
115.81 Should tag coming back.....
121.93 looks like target
Posted by breakout on 1st of May 2024 at 04:40 pm
121.93 looks like target
Internals still positive. Positive VOLD
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 04:21 pm
Internals still positive. Positive VOLD on NYSE and NQ and positive slope on AD line. But not as convincing now as it was earlier today (NYSE = 1.1)
NYCB - up 28% today
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 04:08 pm
NYCB - up 28% today
SPXU, SQQQ
Posted by matt on 1st of May 2024 at 04:04 pm
SPXU - Chart Link- these had bullish setups on their pullback, flag like, volume patterns etc. Also look at the first moving average ribbon pinch/squeeze
SQQQ - Chart Link-
Yep, set up for a
Posted by auni on 1st of May 2024 at 04:06 pm
Yep, set up for a rug pull...
JPOW looking at dollar right
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 04:04 pm
JPOW looking at dollar right now and wishing he would have been a tad more dovish! Lol.
Serious question: does anyone know of a very successful modern trader (e.g. not Jesse Livermore)....a market wizards type..that doesn't maintain both a macro and fundamental view as part of their process along with technical analysis? My impression is that all the great traders, even most day traders, use both, but I'm not positive about that.
SPX 30 min
Posted by matt on 1st of May 2024 at 03:55 pm
$SPX - Chart Link-
WOW! This has been a
Posted by icecoldjones on 1st of May 2024 at 03:59 pm
WOW! This has been a wild roller coaster the last 2 hours and I apologize to everyone for having to listen to me rant as we're now back to red on the day. It's so crazy how things like this can cause SO MUCH volatility these days and I like how you guys said that these Fed interviews used to mean nothing.
I've been shifting towards finding
Posted by foody518 on 1st of May 2024 at 04:09 pm
I've been shifting towards finding more weekly to longer patterns if possible, these daily and intraday moves and gaps are wild
Agree, but I've been waiting
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 04:13 pm
Agree, but I've been waiting to really shift when the weekly index charts were at an attractive buy point. Otherwise, switching to a longer term strategy late in the cycle involves taking quite a bit of risk with stop levels (the end of cycles is characterized by increasing pattern failures until almost everything eventually fails...and I'm just talking about a normal corrective phase). Of course, I never dreamed I would be waiting so long. Quantifying "late in the cycle" is a lot harder than it sounds.
Just focus on the levels
Posted by steve on 1st of May 2024 at 04:02 pm
Just focus on the levels is my advice and then you can review later if you insist