for the fun - couple

Posted by raymuy on 19th of May 2024 at 05:29 am

for the fun - couple etf's and their performance since the corona bottom in march 2020 

ura copx smh xle xly xlk spy and xlc in blue below behind xly 

hello bp17, the spreadsheets you may be thinking of are the the lower time frame high performance, yes those are nuts

that said - man I can't believe you have not been following them. Get onto that section and set some favorites clicking on those * stars next to the symbols, and you can search for symbols as well, they will appear in your favorites tab and you will receive email notifications whenever there is a change to one of your favorites (new entry, new stop, exit).
IMPORTANT! Remember that you need to check that box to receive email alerts on the favorites section.

See the attached images, this is part of the email report I get when the KISS section sends out emails - I've blocked out the email, but group is what was sent to the subscriber who is using the KISS - just look at those gains!  The lists show what those particular subscribers where emailed on Friday for their favorites. Blue color is new STS stop, green is new long, red is close or stopped out favorite

yes - market generally is up during election years so it makes sense 

might be good to add that as an additional filter to that spreadsheet

by the way, I added an E for election year as a column to the spreadsheet

I did some scripting to read the excel and extract the election years to plot the difference between sell in May versus buy and hold. Surprisingly buy and hold seem better during most of the election years. 

Matt,  I trade the ES

Posted by bp17 on 18th of May 2024 at 07:38 pm

Matt,  I trade the ES systems but I think I am missing out on the KISS STS - results seem so strong.   I remember you posting percentage gains by year by symbol for these.  Are these anywhere to view?  I think I need to start trading them and trying to pick 4-5 of the best performing symbols.   Thanks 

Silver Monthly, Quarterly

Posted by matt on 18th of May 2024 at 04:21 pm

I spent a bit of time creating these monthly and quarterly charts of silver - these go back to the early 1970's

you can see the last two times Silver hit $50, once on Jan 1st 1980 when the Hunt Brothers cornered the Silver Market (they were trying to be like the Dukes  in Trading Places LOL)

If you look at a log chart, you could see a possible HUGE ascending triangle forming. I think the next time silver tests that $50 are (3rd time) it will break through it vs being the end of the bull run. Otherwise Silver is entering into a supply zone so it may soon need a rest, notice the CCI is getting near 300, which is quite high

thanks, yes those stats are always amazing to me. I have looked at other things before such as when I had that 'Paint Dry' monthly 401K system, if it signaled a bull or bear market it made sense to not take or take certain entries. And yes adding an Election Year would be interesting for sure

Yes you know me, never enough time work, family, play, I need clones

I gave everyone a link to the spreadsheet in Google Spreadsheets - maybe one of you have might want to try and add the Election years in here to see what effect. This isn't a static image, it is the actual spreadsheet with calculations that you can copy and modify/add things

Sell In May and Go Away Spreadsheet

LOL yeah of course it will blow it away. 

The good 6 months of the year is slightly better over the long run over pure buy and hold, while the high performance blows buy and hold away along with 1/5 to 1/10 of the max draw down

MCD ... I guess there's

Posted by mla127 on 18th of May 2024 at 03:33 pm

MCD ... I guess there's a limit at you much you can keep rising prices ?... 

The real question is does the Kiss High Performance SPX outperform the sell in May crowd?  MY hunch is it blows it away!!  Just following the high performance Kiss using UPRO this year +24.85%.  Would be nice to see the historical performance.

Matt;    Recently you provided some

Posted by dragonfly28 on 18th of May 2024 at 11:49 am

Matt;   

Recently you provided some eye opening stats on the SPY total returns comparing returns of always invested vs sell in May etc.      I am sure you need more work like you need a hole in the head, but it surely would be interesting to see how that same scenario would play out for US election years.  We all know the bureaucrats all try to goose the economy in election years ( once every 4 years, not 2) so I can't help but wonder how that "fully invested" in each of the 4th years compares with that same " sell in May" option.      No need to satisfy my curiosity, but it would be interesting to know - especially since this would be one of those election years to be counted!    

IYT - Transport etf  - 

Posted by raymuy on 18th of May 2024 at 03:16 am

IYT - Transport etf  -  showed that chart earlier  - looks like a head and shoulder forming 

for what it's worth  -

Posted by raymuy on 18th of May 2024 at 03:01 am

for what it's worth  - DJ transport and industrials have a neg divergence  - 

No. You prove you are right. 

AI

The hypothesis that a double top pattern in the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) above 70 often leads to a near-term pullback has some support in technical analysis literature. Several sources provide insight into the behavior of RSI in overbought conditions and its implications for potential pullbacks.

  1. RSI Overbought Conditions: When the RSI exceeds 70, it indicates that an asset is overbought, suggesting that a pullback may be imminent. Historical data shows that selling signals triggered when the RSI crosses below 70 after being above this level often correlate with short-term price declines ( Quantified Strategies) ( TradingSim).

  2. Double Top Pattern in RSI: The double top pattern in RSI, where the RSI hits above 70 twice before pulling back, is considered a bearish signal. This pattern indicates that momentum is weakening, even though the price may be reaching new highs. It often precedes a price reversal or pullback ( Quantified Strategies) ( Quantified Strategies).

  3. Backtesting Results: Backtesting of RSI-based strategies generally shows that signals from overbought conditions (RSI > 70) can be profitable. For example, a study of the S&P 500 using a range-momentum trading strategy based on RSI showed that while such strategies do not generate frequent signals, the ones they do produce are often profitable. This implies that overbought conditions, particularly with confirming patterns like a double top, can indeed lead to significant pullbacks ( Quantified Strategies).

Can Matt or Steve weigh

Posted by steveo on 17th of May 2024 at 06:17 pm

Can Matt or Steve weigh in on this?   I closed out my SLV.    Now if I trade SLV again and take a loss, it will not "count" to reduce my income as it will be called a wash sale.   Its really quite shameful the law is like this. 

for stock technical trading I hypothesize that when the wilders RSI 14 daily does a double top about 70, there is a large chance for at least a near term pullback.   Can you find stats to prove or disprove or assign odds at least

Haha. But 80% never gets sent to Ukraine in the first place - most of it goes to enrich the long time Gov / military executives running ITA components. The 20% or less that goes to Ukraine is mostly a bribe.  *FWIW - we look down our noses at bribes in America but it's basically a mandatory part of doing business around the world (I will not provide personal examples on a public website....but I guess just trust me). 

Here's the bulk of the Ukraine funding: 

My conspiracy theory is that 60% of the totally unaccountable money we send to "Ukraine" gets returned to leftist organizations and foundations in the USA as US stocks transferred in kind.   Prove me wrong.

I closed out my SLV,

MAG Updated

Posted by steveo on 17th of May 2024 at 05:10 pm

I closed out my SLV, I had a large position, my biggest net profit of last 2 years, nice.    No joke, can buy a house in Japan with that. 

Also closed the SPY proxy for the /MES breakout long, LOL pays Matts fee for the year.

weekly KISS updated as well,

KISS STS tables updated

Posted by matt on 17th of May 2024 at 04:43 pm

weekly KISS updated as well, and emails sent out

https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_weekly/?search=BPT_basket 

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