The royal we? I like it. Team trading is better.  I'll consider changing my target .

the gap on the cash is around 4983, we are targeting that gap

SPX lost 5000. I like that I can trade SPX options 23 hours a day but it's also kinda terrible. My accounts with SPY options I know can't be adjusted overnight so I just don't look at them. 

rebreese, I just checked the newsletter - yes his audio gets cut off on the standard format original player, however always check the individual audio from the new player , when you use the New Player that the full audio is there for NVDA, see URL

https://breakpointtrades.com/market_analysis/new_player/?nl_id=6200 

here's a 6hr chart of ES futures, could be targeting that demand zone below

ES futures trade roughly 39 points higher than SPX cash. 

ES futures are down 18 at the moment.  Anyway this action could fill  that gap on the cash

Steve you cut off just as you were about to give us NVDA . 

we both would like to see that gap filled on the SPX charts we have shown, honestly a gap down to fill that gap then recovered would probably be a good trade low for now, but I want to fill that gap. about 27 points down on the cash SPX would fill that gap

DJT - Chart Link kind of funny now that came straight down from the 70's and bounced almost perfectly off the 200 day MA

Stockcharts must have changed data venders, commodities that used to update shortly after the market now update after 8 pm, here's the updated charts

$COPPER - Chart Link- man Copper strong

$COPPER - Chart Link-

$WTIC - Chart Link-

$GOLD - Chart Link-

$SILVER - Chart Link-

SPX is at 34 RSI14 Daily, it has popped off this point in last 12 months, but we have OPEX so we shall see

RSG has worked off it's RSI14Daily overbought, and could benefit from a pop in the SPX methinks

Thursday Newsletter

DXYZ - current premium to NAV is ~1000%. Lol. 

SPX/SPY is getting quite compressed (steep wedge) and there is some divergence now on 60 minute chart but we have yet to see a break in structure (still lower highs).  Also, noteworthy is the SPX daily RSI is now in an oversold region which rarely fails to provide some type of bounce.   Also have 5 days down (could extend but odds favoring a bounce soon just need a trigger).   OPEX tomorrow. 

Also noted in the last several years the explosion of Paper Precious Metal, like 400% growth.   "They" use these to limit to price of physical metals, and I have assumed for quite a while, that at some point they will lose control, and then gold could see $5000 and silver to $45 or $50 and that is just the near time, and then as always a blow off top and then a mutli-year correction.   What sayeth y'all?

Schwab is buying out TD Ameritrade, and so Thinkorswim is changing hands yet again, I hope they don't gut it as being a too powerful tool for the plebs to use.

Matt or Steve, your thoughts.... is this a legitimate wedge and should we expect a MACD divergence to increase our confidence, or lack of MACD-D would negate the wedge?

Any truths that exist will morph as the dominance of daily options continues to grow at a blistering pace. Today and tomorrow are not really comparable to a year ago and we might as well be in a completely different world from 5 years ago.  Options really have become THE dominant force in markets...and now we're dealing with daily expirations...but it's still a relatively new phenomenon so we shouldn't think we know all the risks yet. There will be unexpected events and growing pains because of the internal changes in market structure and drivers.

I think of it in terms of notional value (probably because I'm an options trader) and it's mind-blowing.  Think about how a bank makes a loan and it increases the money supply (you don't need the Fed or Treasury to increase money supply - bank loans create money). Now take the options market and think about participants creating almost unlimited notional positions on both sides of an underlying, but many many times larger notional value than the value of the underlying itself.  The notional value of the options market is much much larger than the combined value of the underlying assets. Most popular assets can now be levered via ETF's where traders create the leverage with complex option positions. What could possibly go wrong?  

NFLX - looks like the part I got right was that the boost from password sharing crackdown is going to play out at some point. The are not going to be reporting sub adds after this quarter (I wonder why. Haha). 

I had AI clarify some OPEX ideas,

Options expiration (OPEX) can indeed introduce increased volatility and trading activity in the stock market, particularly in the options market. Here are some general observations and truths about OPEX:

1. Increased Volatility: OPEX tends to coincide with higher levels of volatility in the market. This is because options traders often adjust or close out their positions before expiration, leading to increased buying or selling activity, which can impact stock prices.

2. Option Pinning: Option pinning refers to the tendency of stock prices to gravitate towards strike prices with high open interest as expiration approaches. This can result in the stock price being "pinned" close to these strike prices, leading to predictable movements.

3. Higher Trading Volume: OPEX days typically see higher-than-average trading volumes as traders close out or roll over their options positions. This increased trading activity can further contribute to volatility in the market.

4. Delta Hedging: Market makers and institutional traders often engage in delta hedging strategies around OPEX to manage their exposure to options positions. This can lead to additional buying or selling pressure on the underlying stocks, affecting their prices.

5. Rolling Options: Many traders roll their options positions forward by closing out expiring contracts and opening new ones with later expiration dates. This rolling activity can influence short-term price movements as traders adjust their positions.

6. Price Reversion: Some traders anticipate price reversals or adjustments after OPEX as the market absorbs the expiration-related trading activity. This can lead to short-term trading opportunities based on the expectation of price reversion.

7. Earnings Impact: OPEX coinciding with earnings releases can amplify volatility. Traders may use options strategies to capitalize on or hedge against potential earnings-related price movements, adding another layer of complexity to OPEX trading.

Are there any general truths to OPEX, or maybe just more volatility than normal?  OPEX Tomorrow

Yes, it was a beauty that was my suggestion. But you can take it off now. It's not going much higher because it's being acquired for $65.