Yes bigg - be mindful of a possible HS top on 120 minute - just something to monitor if 20 DAY MA lost but solid day for cyrpto miners.  Onto next week 

HUT it could drop to

Posted by bigg on 12th of Jul 2024 at 03:42 pm

HUT it could drop to 13.50 again before the move higher, its do for another pullback

QQQ Supply Reaction

Posted by steve on 12th of Jul 2024 at 03:42 pm

EOD Flush?

Posted by elementsix on 12th of Jul 2024 at 03:41 pm

EOD Flush?

I thought we also convinced you to exit your shorts in a bull market. 

Bought a second piece at 14.76 this morning.

Giving you a dip to buy. Did you take advantage?

HUT 24 by the end

Posted by bigg on 12th of Jul 2024 at 03:11 pm

HUT 24 by the end of july,  just talking out loud

There's a reason brokers don't provide a stop order that only executes at the close if price is below a certain level (like MOC but different)....and it's not because it would be a difficult order type to add. 

MMM View

Posted by steve on 12th of Jul 2024 at 03:09 pm

MMM - Chart Link - coils can be whippy at times - you see a shake out and reversal candle on expanding volume.  No one is stopping you from re-buying - that's what traders do

Been following MMM as a use case. 

After MMM gets stopped out, it jumps.

I have many bad words to say: [&*^%$#@*@#&^*]     

RACE is next

F in over drive

Posted by arun on 12th of Jul 2024 at 02:42 pm

RACE is next

F in over drive

Posted by morton7 on 12th of Jul 2024 at 02:38 pm

F in over drive

Picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer is a phrase I use only when talking about selling premium in a low IV environment, so I'm guessing that's what you mean vs "going long SPX". (It does sound like something I said, but not about going long).  Yes, I still do sell options in low IV and yes it is dangerous. You have to know how to roll / adjust and have a very good handle on position size and notional value at risk. Oh, and you can never ever ever ever take a day or even half a day off.   The strategy has it's moments - it was epic in 2022, but when the 20 delta calls at 45 DTE's are getting hit 95% of the time, month after month after month, the options math is broken and you have to take that into account also.

My experience on the short premium side is also what has me doing long premium trades much more these the straddle I posted earlier today. You're not stuck with 1:10 risk that way, like you are with 100 point wide wings on SPX condors.  *The max risk on the straddle today was $305. Profit potential was unlimited. Completely different game than selling premium.

One mistake I made in November that I corrected by December last year was not rolling up short puts to protect short calls - my assumption was that that market would have some downside, like they normally did. But there was no just shot up and then melted higher. Sideways is the new break. I always roll up puts to create a positive delta exposure overall by the end of each day. No exceptions, unless the trend changes and is actually confirmed.   

Barely even notice a 5%

Posted by elementsix on 12th of Jul 2024 at 02:35 pm

Barely even notice a 5% down day on these top movers... just a minor cost of making money in the market.

I do think yesterday's action was indicative of big (hedge funds) money moving around and potentially altering trend expectations on another timeline.

You also told me back in March at $5,200 SPX "going long here would be like picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer". Looks like there has been plenty of free pennies to pick up and I actually have negative pennies while short LOL

Straddle working out well. I took profits on about half the calls and left the put side in play. Pretty much locked in a break even trade at worst, but it will be a homerun now if there is a reversal. 

Any time you think a market can't go higher because of weak economic outlook, inflation or weak earnings projections, just look at the Japan and German markets.  They are outpacing US markets...and they have been in recessions. Money printing is all that matters for asset prices right now. 

But my chips are slowly coming off the table. If I miss the next 3-5%, so be it. But Kiss will still be my guideposts. 

You can bank on that..good one


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