Posted by billrosen on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:41 pm
60 period stochastics looks like it is having trouble getting
back above 80 on the 30 minute SPX chart, if it fails there and
turns back down with a late day sell off, that would indicate a
further sell-off, although with Apple reporting tonight who
knows...
Posted by billrosen on 21st of Jul 2009 at 04:05 pm
this day was so dissapointing, I shortred near the open and
played the mechanicals as well, up huge until mid day and then gave
it all back expecting reversals at 38%, 50% and 61% fib
levels...this SUCKED!!!!!!!! Kind of like that old saying, better
to never have had money at all, then to have had it and then lose
it!!!
Posted by billrosen on 21st of Jul 2009 at 05:19 pm
I appreciate the advice on the blog and all of them PM's I got
regarding not taking profits...I always take profits and raise or
lower stops accordingly, usually too quickly in fact, as I hate
taking losses...except for some strange reason today I did
not...one of those days where you tell yourself, each fib will have
to be the reversal point and when things got above the 61%
retracement of course "it was too late to sell", you know the
drill, the classic emotional decision making at the wrong
times...the vast majority of my losses happened with the mechanical
systems where I take very large positions, so my percentage
loss today was small 1.8% while the dollar amount was
not. No big deal tomorrow is another day.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 21st of Jul 2009 at 05:38 pm
Bill, almost everyone would have done the same thing as you have
today. The up trend is very strong. Money is to be made by going
along with the market this year, not against it for whatever stupid
reason. this time one cannot blame margin clerks for excessive
buying. We'll have fun riding down off the top. Good luck!
Bill, it was a very tricky day. Don't be too hard on yourself.
Just learn from it -- the lesson I would take (and granted that's
me and what works for me) is to set your stop before you get into
the trade -- chose your fib level, or R level, and live with it.
FWIW I've found I just get myself in trouble when I try to
reevaluate when I'm in the middle of the trade, because that's when
the emotions always take over. Anyhow, pat yourself on the back for
good money management in general -- probably nothing more important
in the long run than good money management. I can't begin to tell
you how many times I have done what you did today, before I learned
to get tough with myself on that one! And you know what -- like an
alcoholic I still slip every once in a while myself!
this is the time to play that Ed Sekoyta song that Susan
posted. Guys like him totally embrace drawdowns and risking
profits as part of any trading system.
Yes hard day to trade today ... I got stopped out on my shorts
also. I think I made little money today. In chop its
hard ... Alot of cross currents going on right now
That's why we always stress taking at least some partial profits
on the initial move (especially when playing against the prevailing
trend). We now appear to be in Wave 5 up.
Yup the reaction to the AAPL will certainly determine the near
term direction - we have a "potential" double top in the NDX
intraday BUT anything goes with such news.
60 period stochastics looks like
Posted by billrosen on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:41 pm
60 period stochastics looks like it is having trouble getting back above 80 on the 30 minute SPX chart, if it fails there and turns back down with a late day sell off, that would indicate a further sell-off, although with Apple reporting tonight who knows...
No trouble now....
Posted by rgoodwin on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:54 pm
No trouble now....
this day was so dissapointing,
Posted by billrosen on 21st of Jul 2009 at 04:05 pm
this day was so dissapointing, I shortred near the open and played the mechanicals as well, up huge until mid day and then gave it all back expecting reversals at 38%, 50% and 61% fib levels...this SUCKED!!!!!!!! Kind of like that old saying, better to never have had money at all, then to have had it and then lose it!!!
I appreciate the advice on
Posted by billrosen on 21st of Jul 2009 at 05:19 pm
I appreciate the advice on the blog and all of them PM's I got regarding not taking profits...I always take profits and raise or lower stops accordingly, usually too quickly in fact, as I hate taking losses...except for some strange reason today I did not...one of those days where you tell yourself, each fib will have to be the reversal point and when things got above the 61% retracement of course "it was too late to sell", you know the drill, the classic emotional decision making at the wrong times...the vast majority of my losses happened with the mechanical systems where I take very large positions, so my percentage loss today was small 1.8% while the dollar amount was not. No big deal tomorrow is another day.
Bill, almost everyone would have
Posted by junkmaylbox on 21st of Jul 2009 at 05:38 pm
Bill, almost everyone would have done the same thing as you have today. The up trend is very strong. Money is to be made by going along with the market this year, not against it for whatever stupid reason. this time one cannot blame margin clerks for excessive buying. We'll have fun riding down off the top. Good luck!
Bill, it was a very
Posted by puma on 21st of Jul 2009 at 07:46 pm
Bill, it was a very tricky day. Don't be too hard on yourself. Just learn from it -- the lesson I would take (and granted that's me and what works for me) is to set your stop before you get into the trade -- chose your fib level, or R level, and live with it. FWIW I've found I just get myself in trouble when I try to reevaluate when I'm in the middle of the trade, because that's when the emotions always take over. Anyhow, pat yourself on the back for good money management in general -- probably nothing more important in the long run than good money management. I can't begin to tell you how many times I have done what you did today, before I learned to get tough with myself on that one! And you know what -- like an alcoholic I still slip every once in a while myself!
Bill, your candor is just
Posted by Peridot on 21st of Jul 2009 at 05:24 pm
Bill, your candor is just remarkable. Thank you for sharing. p.
yes -- good philosophy lesson.
Posted by Michael on 21st of Jul 2009 at 05:38 pm
yes -- good philosophy lesson. In trading self-knowledge is everything.
today was for scalp trading
Posted by u00sas3 on 21st of Jul 2009 at 04:26 pm
today was for scalp trading given our trending location....you take profits quick
this is the time to
Posted by Michael on 21st of Jul 2009 at 04:24 pm
this is the time to play that Ed Sekoyta song that Susan posted. Guys like him totally embrace drawdowns and risking profits as part of any trading system.
Yes hard day to trade
Posted by cspirit on 21st of Jul 2009 at 04:12 pm
Yes hard day to trade today ... I got stopped out on my shorts also. I think I made little money today. In chop its hard ... Alot of cross currents going on right now
That's why we always stress
Posted by steve on 21st of Jul 2009 at 04:09 pm
That's why we always stress taking at least some partial profits on the initial move (especially when playing against the prevailing trend). We now appear to be in Wave 5 up.
Yup, most Mech. Systems had
Posted by gan_ on 21st of Jul 2009 at 04:07 pm
Yup, most Mech. Systems had a bad day today.
I agree with you that
Posted by cspirit on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:46 pm
I agree with you that Apple Earnings could be wild card ... Not wanting to get ahead and run over by the bus if I pick the wrong side ...
Could the late buying indicate
Posted by peterwelsh on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:55 pm
Could the late buying indicate the boys already know how AAPL will report?
Yup the reaction to the
Posted by steve on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:53 pm
Yup the reaction to the AAPL will certainly determine the near term direction - we have a "potential" double top in the NDX intraday BUT anything goes with such news.
"who knows"...in other words..go to
Posted by dylan398 on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:43 pm
"who knows"...in other words..go to cash and live to fight another day.
it just won't quit
Posted by kurzweg on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:43 pm
my screen ain't showing a late day sell off.
Just like the Eveready Bunny!
Posted by steve on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:52 pm
Just like the Eveready Bunny!