pro tip: regarding the market, if you went short yesterday this
morning on the big move down was the time to take ample most or all
profits on your short, why?
As I stated the other day, the market has been in a very strong
uptrend with all the short-term MA's pointing strongly up. Unless
you are coming off an extremely parabolic blow off move, almost
always what happens is that first big pullback is bought.
I've leanred the hard way over the years if catch a nice
short entry on the market when it's still in a strong uptrend, if I
don't aggressive take profits on the first sell because I'm
thinking I caught the top, I'm always disapointed and give those
profits back. It's best to aggressive take the profits on the
shorts - then add them back after a good bounce if conditions look
good.
the time to hold shorts for swings is after a symmetry break
that breaks the uptrend, and you short the oversold bounce - those
shorts you can give more room because market structure was broken.
Or when the market is downtreding and you short an oversold rally,
you can give those room. But when the market has been in a very
strong uptrend, if you manage to get short and catch that top - be
aggressive in taking profits on that first sell off
Posted by retirefire on 7th of Jul 2023 at 08:40 am
Thanks Matt for the tip. I imagine those parameters are built
into some of the systems. "the time to hold shorts for swings is
after a symmetry break that breaks the uptrend, and you short the
oversold bounce". And watch the MA's
Posted by DigiNomad on 6th of Jul 2023 at 03:53 pm
Great observations.
Also, as always, have to understand how much liquidity
we're dealing with. The fiscal policy team is kicking the living
sh*t out of the monetary policy team and then kicking them when
they are down. EU skipped right past stagflation and into a
inflationary recession. There's almost no way the US doesn't
experience a bout of stagflation here soon...if we're not already
there. With QT that never really happened and out of control
fiscal spending, the Fed is pushing on a string with silly rate
hikes. However, Americans mostly don't understand how
destructive inflation is (have you heard anyone mention the housing
crash that has unfolded....in real terms? Nope - not a peep)....so
the pattern will continue. The good news is that equity
market is the only viable means to shield oneself from
inflation...e.g. if your life savings is in your home, you're
getting crushed over the last year (in real terms). So the
whole world is rushing to buy whatever equity assets they can at
whatever price. A 35 PE ratio can be seen as very reasonable when
compared to simply letting inflation erode the purchasing power of
your capital.
Posted by timebandit on 6th of Jul 2023 at 01:25 pm
NYSE down volume divided by up volume is more than 7.5 to 1. I
would be surprised if we keep ramping up, but then again the market
is full of surprises
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SPX 5 min
Posted by matt on 6th of Jul 2023 at 12:28 pm
$SPX - Chart Link-
Update: SPX 5 min
Posted by matt on 6th of Jul 2023 at 02:36 pm
$SPX - Chart Link-
pro tip: regarding the market,
Posted by matt on 6th of Jul 2023 at 03:05 pm
pro tip: regarding the market, if you went short yesterday this morning on the big move down was the time to take ample most or all profits on your short, why?
As I stated the other day, the market has been in a very strong uptrend with all the short-term MA's pointing strongly up. Unless you are coming off an extremely parabolic blow off move, almost always what happens is that first big pullback is bought. I've leanred the hard way over the years if catch a nice short entry on the market when it's still in a strong uptrend, if I don't aggressive take profits on the first sell because I'm thinking I caught the top, I'm always disapointed and give those profits back. It's best to aggressive take the profits on the shorts - then add them back after a good bounce if conditions look good.
the time to hold shorts for swings is after a symmetry break that breaks the uptrend, and you short the oversold bounce - those shorts you can give more room because market structure was broken. Or when the market is downtreding and you short an oversold rally, you can give those room. But when the market has been in a very strong uptrend, if you manage to get short and catch that top - be aggressive in taking profits on that first sell off
Thanks Matt for the tip.
Posted by retirefire on 7th of Jul 2023 at 08:40 am
Thanks Matt for the tip. I imagine those parameters are built into some of the systems. "the time to hold shorts for swings is after a symmetry break that breaks the uptrend, and you short the oversold bounce". And watch the MA's
Great observations. Also, as always,
Posted by DigiNomad on 6th of Jul 2023 at 03:53 pm
Great observations.
Also, as always, have to understand how much liquidity we're dealing with. The fiscal policy team is kicking the living sh*t out of the monetary policy team and then kicking them when they are down. EU skipped right past stagflation and into a inflationary recession. There's almost no way the US doesn't experience a bout of stagflation here soon...if we're not already there. With QT that never really happened and out of control fiscal spending, the Fed is pushing on a string with silly rate hikes. However, Americans mostly don't understand how destructive inflation is (have you heard anyone mention the housing crash that has unfolded....in real terms? Nope - not a peep)....so the pattern will continue. The good news is that equity market is the only viable means to shield oneself from inflation...e.g. if your life savings is in your home, you're getting crushed over the last year (in real terms). So the whole world is rushing to buy whatever equity assets they can at whatever price. A 35 PE ratio can be seen as very reasonable when compared to simply letting inflation erode the purchasing power of your capital.
Thanks... always like it when
Posted by auni on 6th of Jul 2023 at 03:22 pm
Thanks... always like it when you think out loud.
Thoughts on the wave structure
Posted by johnny2012 on 6th of Jul 2023 at 03:12 pm
Thoughts on the wave structure you mentioned earlier on the 60 min? End of wave 4 and wave 5 targets? Appreciate your expertise Matt.
15 min ES - again
Posted by matt on 6th of Jul 2023 at 12:56 pm
15 min ES - again things got too stetched on the downside, whenever you see MA ribbon like that and things like Demark 13 etc
Been on a steady incline
Posted by icecoldjones on 6th of Jul 2023 at 01:07 pm
Been on a steady incline since 11:15, really harshin my excitement LOL. Let's hope the last few hours turn back down!
NYSE down volume divided by
Posted by timebandit on 6th of Jul 2023 at 01:25 pm
NYSE down volume divided by up volume is more than 7.5 to 1. I would be surprised if we keep ramping up, but then again the market is full of surprises