Great observations.  Also, as always,

    SPX 5 min

    Posted by DigiNomad on 6th of Jul 2023 at 03:53 pm

    Great observations.

     Also, as always, have to understand how much liquidity we're dealing with. The fiscal policy team is kicking the living sh*t out of the monetary policy team and then kicking them when they are down. EU skipped right past stagflation and into a inflationary recession. There's almost no way the US doesn't experience a bout of stagflation here soon...if we're not already there.  With QT that never really happened and out of control fiscal spending, the Fed is pushing on a string with silly rate hikes.  However, Americans mostly don't understand how destructive inflation is (have you heard anyone mention the housing crash that has unfolded....in real terms? Nope - not a peep)....so the pattern will continue.  The good news is that equity market is the only viable means to shield oneself from inflation...e.g. if your life savings is in your home, you're getting crushed over the last year (in real terms).  So the whole world is rushing to buy whatever equity assets they can at whatever price. A 35 PE ratio can be seen as very reasonable when compared to simply letting inflation erode the purchasing power of your capital. 

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