I think the recent movement of the US Dollar is super important.
Any having massive inflation (reality is 20% to 60%)
whilst the USD was rocketing upward, is a double bad sign for our
real economy.
But normally isn't it Dollar up means stocks and PM down?
USD is a clear rising expanding Wedge, so on a break down, I
would expect a good move down. So wouldn't that be a
tailwind for equities? At least in normal times.
Short as I have been in a decade. That may be a
contrary indicator, LOL.
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Oct 2022 at 03:30 pm
I don't understand this premise: "having massive inflation
(reality is 20% to 60%) whilst the USD was rocketing upward, is a
double bad sign for our real economy."
As investors, we've been conned into believing that a weak
dollar is good for the USA. It's NOT! It's nonsense. It's
just beneficial to the very large multinational companies that
we've grown accustomed to investing in. The dollar is kicking
ass. Throw a party. Go on a vacation to Europe. The world is
our oyster and a strong dollar blunts the effects of dollar
denominated commodity inflation. The elites on CNBC that have
friends and family running fortune 500 companies want a weaker
dollar...but it's not because it's beneficial for you and me.
"As investors, we've been conned into believing that a weak
dollar is good for the USA." Not sure that's true. I don't believe
it, for one. Though a weaker dollar is good for big tech obviously.
Bf you're getting your investment advice from CNBC I would strongly
suggest you look elsewhere. Like all over the web, for
instance.
usually it does, but not always and many times - again the way
correlations work, you will have a correlation for a long period of
time, then it suddenly stops for awhile. I can see plenty of
examples in the past where gold went up for long periods of time
with the Dollar going up. Also, during a correlation, many times a
divergence occurs at the end where gold will tend to anticipate
what the Dollar is going to do; if it thinks the Dollar is nearing
a top it may start to rally 1 or 2 months early before the Dollar
really tops out, or the opposite gold has been rallying while the
Dollar been selling off for long period of time, gold may top first
and start selling off much earlier before the Dollar bottoms
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Matt or Steve, or anyone I
Posted by steveo on 27th of Oct 2022 at 01:28 pm
Matt or Steve, or anyone
I think the recent movement of the US Dollar is super important. Any having massive inflation (reality is 20% to 60%) whilst the USD was rocketing upward, is a double bad sign for our real economy.
But normally isn't it Dollar up means stocks and PM down?
USD is a clear rising expanding Wedge, so on a break down, I would expect a good move down. So wouldn't that be a tailwind for equities? At least in normal times.
Short as I have been in a decade. That may be a contrary indicator, LOL.
I don't understand this premise:
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Oct 2022 at 03:30 pm
I don't understand this premise: "having massive inflation (reality is 20% to 60%) whilst the USD was rocketing upward, is a double bad sign for our real economy."
As investors, we've been conned into believing that a weak dollar is good for the USA. It's NOT! It's nonsense. It's just beneficial to the very large multinational companies that we've grown accustomed to investing in. The dollar is kicking ass. Throw a party. Go on a vacation to Europe. The world is our oyster and a strong dollar blunts the effects of dollar denominated commodity inflation. The elites on CNBC that have friends and family running fortune 500 companies want a weaker dollar...but it's not because it's beneficial for you and me.
"As investors, we've been conned
Posted by brophy on 27th of Oct 2022 at 04:11 pm
"As investors, we've been conned into believing that a weak dollar is good for the USA." Not sure that's true. I don't believe it, for one. Though a weaker dollar is good for big tech obviously. Bf you're getting your investment advice from CNBC I would strongly suggest you look elsewhere. Like all over the web, for instance.
Thanks, Steve. One of these
Posted by mdgfain on 27th of Oct 2022 at 03:32 pm
Thanks, Steve. One of these years, I may start seeing these patterns ion my own!
usually it does, but not
Posted by matt on 27th of Oct 2022 at 02:18 pm
usually it does, but not always and many times - again the way correlations work, you will have a correlation for a long period of time, then it suddenly stops for awhile. I can see plenty of examples in the past where gold went up for long periods of time with the Dollar going up. Also, during a correlation, many times a divergence occurs at the end where gold will tend to anticipate what the Dollar is going to do; if it thinks the Dollar is nearing a top it may start to rally 1 or 2 months early before the Dollar really tops out, or the opposite gold has been rallying while the Dollar been selling off for long period of time, gold may top first and start selling off much earlier before the Dollar bottoms