3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
SPX 3,854 would be a 20% correction from the highs, coincides
with the 3,815 fib, 38% fib. An area I've had in my 2022 forecast
for sometime. My 2022 forecast range is 3,800-4,800 which I
included overshoots in (forced liquidity and/or momentum). At the
beginning of the year I called for a 10-15% correction in SPX and
the 15% area came in at 4,095. We hit 4,062 on the recent
Good day yesterday for shorting and hedging. It took having to
have flexibility as usual. I originally took off my hedges at
4,170, only to put them back on when markets went down and back up
to test that area again. I have a statement on my white board in my
office that I adhere to when trading: "Be flexible when markets
My last buys for my long term accounts were at low 4,200s. That
is inventory that I repurchased after selling at 4,800 area highs
last year. I have inventory still from much lower prices in the
corona crash buys. 2018 during the 20% correction on Christmas Eve
was another major buying time for me. I remember because I was
still in the business and worked 14 hours that day helping clients
take advantage of those prices.
I have a good friend who has been a bear for many years and we
share our insights together. It helps keep us balanced in our
strategies and create a plan that suits our personal tolerances and
time frames. I come here for that as well.
I'll be out in nature again today and not watching every tick. I
do some trading, though limit my activity to particular days of the
week when I feel I'm out of balance. Too much computer time or news
isn't worthwhile for me. Once the analysis is done and plan set,
then I just watch the close prices to see if I need to adjust.
Simple alerts for particular areas on the indexes save me a lot of
time. If the SPX hits a certain number, I get a notification.
Otherwise, no need to watch.
I'm allocated with a cash, fixed rate interest accounts, fixed
rate bonds, and stocks. All of which I can sit with through a
corona crash situation and be ok. We would be ok if markets went to
zero still (we would have much bigger issues anyway if it gets
really bad as a world). Our income isn't based on it or living
needs. So there is no fear in the equation when planning that way.
I learned long ago that if anything was keeping me up at night that
I had too much. It took me years to figure out the right mix and
I'm sure I'll continue to adjust as I age. But those aren't
Lots to be thankful for waking up this morning. Looking
forward to seeing my grandson in 3 weeks or so, he's 7 now. Will be
in Florida for the week.
All the best, enjoy your day.
"Take the oath that you are never going to buy another stock in
Stage 4...or hold onto any of your stocks once they move into Stage
4." - Stan Weinstein
one of the first books I read on TA - ultra simplistic but it's
where everyone learned the stage 1 bases, and cycles of stocks
i began with Edwards & Magee
Not "everyone" apparently.
Totally agree with your viewpoints. Being glued to a screen all
day is not in the cards for me either, however, I do check in
frequently during the day to see what the market is doing. I
put in lowball orders for my core portfolio at fibs, trendlines,
I also sold about 80% of my core in the much higher areas and
have added some back, general cost basis 4180 ish spx. The
commentary on this site has helped me immensely stay in tune with
the market. I am still only 40% back into my core holdings. I sell
calls at about 10 days out, 20 to 30% chance of in the money to
milk more from these positions and of course enjoy the dividends. I
rarely short because it's so tricky.
I believe in simplicity, mainly from experience of holding an
individual stock position in the past and having it sit or go down
while the market rallies, so now I stick to the ETF's and leveraged
ETF's. It's also so much easier to technically read the SPX
vs a specific name that can take a dump on you with a news story
out of left field.
I also love the SPY/ES system because, it gives me the extra
spark to enjoy the big swings in the market and feel like a
participant. With it's stats and with my own tweaks that has
been a vacation fund! I think this system is a lot of fun even when
it experiences drawdown. Followed religiously, especially
those third signals, it really pays off!
I love the educated participants on this blog and realize it's a
real gem as there are not any other sites for true traders that I
have found. CNBC, Cramer, et al I view as talking heads that
need to fill content and on any given day you can get a number of
viewpoints mostly telling you what's already happened in the
market. It just serves to confuse me.
There is my manifesto, happy trading and enjoy your day as
Thanks and enjoy being away from the screen
Thanks Steve, I assure you I check in frequently, especially
today; it's raining here
Nice words of wisdom as well as market analysis. Thank you for
Excellent summary. Enjoy every moment with your
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