SPX 3,854 would be a

    Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of May 2022 at 06:39 am

    SPX 3,854 would be a 20% correction from the highs, coincides with the 3,815 fib, 38% fib. An area I've had in my 2022 forecast for sometime. My 2022 forecast range is 3,800-4,800 which I included overshoots in (forced liquidity and/or momentum). At the beginning of the year I called for a 10-15% correction in SPX and the 15% area came in at 4,095. We hit 4,062 on the recent low. 

    Good day yesterday for shorting and hedging. It took having to have flexibility as usual. I originally took off my hedges at 4,170, only to put them back on when markets went down and back up to test that area again. I have a statement on my white board in my office that I adhere to when trading: "Be flexible when markets change". 

    My last buys for my long term accounts were at low 4,200s. That is inventory that I repurchased after selling at 4,800 area highs last year. I have inventory still from much lower prices in the corona crash buys. 2018 during the 20% correction on Christmas Eve was another major buying time for me. I remember because I was still in the business and worked 14 hours that day helping clients take advantage of those prices. 

    I have a good friend who has been a bear for many years and we share our insights together. It helps keep us balanced in our strategies and create a plan that suits our personal tolerances and time frames. I come here for that as well. 

    I'll be out in nature again today and not watching every tick. I do some trading, though limit my activity to particular days of the week when I feel I'm out of balance. Too much computer time or news isn't worthwhile for me. Once the analysis is done and plan set, then I just watch the close prices to see if I need to adjust. Simple alerts for particular areas on the indexes save me a lot of time. If the SPX hits a certain number, I get a notification. Otherwise, no need to watch. 

    I'm allocated with a cash, fixed rate interest accounts, fixed rate bonds, and stocks. All of which I can sit with through a corona crash situation and be ok. We would be ok if markets went to zero still (we would have much bigger issues anyway if it gets really bad as a world). Our income isn't based on it or living needs. So there is no fear in the equation when planning that way. I learned long ago that if anything was keeping me up at night that I had too much. It took me years to figure out the right mix and I'm sure I'll continue to adjust as I age. But those aren't overnight decisions. 

     Lots to be thankful for waking up this morning. Looking forward to seeing my grandson in 3 weeks or so, he's 7 now. Will be in Florida for the week.  All the best, enjoy your day. 

    "Take the oath that you

    Posted by brophy on 6th of May 2022 at 09:03 am

    "Take the oath that you are never going to buy another stock in Stage 4...or hold onto any of your stocks once they move into Stage 4." - Stan Weinstein

    one of the first books

    Posted by matt on 6th of May 2022 at 09:28 am

    one of the first books I read on TA - ultra simplistic but it's where everyone learned the stage 1 bases, and cycles of stocks

    i began with  Edwards &

    Posted by watcdy on 6th of May 2022 at 09:34 am

    i began with  Edwards &  Magee

    Not "everyone" apparently.

    Posted by brophy on 6th of May 2022 at 09:33 am

    Not "everyone" apparently.

    Totally agree with your viewpoints.

    Posted by cozz101 on 6th of May 2022 at 08:34 am

    Totally agree with your viewpoints. Being glued to a screen all day is not in the cards for me either, however, I do check in frequently during the day to see what the market is doing.  I put in lowball orders for my core portfolio at fibs, trendlines, etc.  

    I also sold about 80% of my core in the much higher areas and have added some back, general cost basis 4180 ish spx.  The commentary on this site has helped me immensely stay in tune with the market. I am still only 40% back into my core holdings. I sell calls at about 10 days out, 20 to 30% chance of in the money to milk more from these positions and of course enjoy the dividends. I rarely short because it's so tricky. 

    I believe in simplicity, mainly from experience of holding an individual stock position in the past and having it sit or go down while the market rallies, so now I stick to the ETF's and leveraged ETF's.  It's also so much easier to technically read the SPX vs a specific name that can take a dump on you with a news story out of left field. 

    I also love the SPY/ES system because, it gives me the extra spark to enjoy the big swings in the market and feel like a participant.  With it's stats and with my own tweaks that has been a vacation fund! I think this system is a lot of fun even when it experiences drawdown.  Followed religiously, especially those third signals, it really pays off! 

    I love the educated participants on this blog and realize it's a real gem as there are not any other sites for true traders that I have found.  CNBC, Cramer, et al I view as talking heads that need to fill content and on any given day you can get a number of viewpoints mostly telling you what's already happened in the market. It just serves to confuse me.

    There is my manifesto, happy trading and enjoy your day as well!

    Thanks and enjoy being away

    Posted by steve on 6th of May 2022 at 08:36 am

    Thanks and enjoy being away from the screen     

    Thanks Steve, I assure you

    Posted by cozz101 on 6th of May 2022 at 08:40 am

    Thanks Steve, I assure you I check in frequently, especially today; it's raining here     

    Nice words of wisdom as

    Posted by arun on 6th of May 2022 at 08:03 am

    Nice words of wisdom as well as market analysis. Thank you for sharing 

    Excellent summary.  Enjoy every moment

    Posted by steve on 6th of May 2022 at 07:32 am

    Excellent summary.  Enjoy every moment with your grandkids 


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