Shouldn't market sentiment be measured by what people actually
do (buy or sell), not how they say they feel? If so, I'd
argue that an overwhelming majority of investors have not sold much
of anything since the start of the year; therefore sentiment isn't
really negative. Watch what I do, not what I say. Majority
have their money in retirement accounts and if anything, have sat
tight since the start of the year, as they've been advised to do
for the last 15-20 years.
If that's the situation, how low can "the market" go if those
with retirement accounts ever panic en masse?
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 1st of Mar 2022 at 02:22 pm
That's true. $NAAIM is at 44. Pretty low but not washout level.
$CPC is also not at panic level. Sentiment can stay bearish for
some time and price goes down for sure.
Probably rhetorical questions, but I'll offer my take anyway
I don't see retirement accounts going to cash
in masse in a panic scenario. However, when institutional investors
all line up on the bearish side, we will be close to a bottom (e.g.
when Tom Lee at FundStrat stops his bullish calls and people start
admitting that a global recession later this year is a real
possibility). I think we have a date with 360 on the SPY before
this is all over (another 15+% down) but will likely have a few
tradable rallies before we get there.
overall that newer version (wider version less noise) of
the daily KISS did very well in the past - protected well against
those bear markets and most of the time at least matched the SPX
and in some years exceeded it. 3 trades a year on average with 5
max. The KISS section of the website is a hodge podge of
stuff, confusing. I am looking to clean all that up and greatly
simplify it. And realize this version is not compete - it's
never complete, will always be tweaked and made better with new
logic. Instead of catching every market wiggle the goal will
be to generally match the annual SPX returns, but without the draw
down risk (because of the DVTs) and keeps you out of bear market
declines.
again however guys that longer term crap, short term focuses on
this wedge intra day
Matt, I really enjoy the newer version of the KISS system, and
I'm hoping you can incorporate it into the website. It's just
the type of system I am looking for, a longer term one that keeps
you out of the bear markets. Thanks!
Shouldn't market sentiment be measured
With all the news going on ... i'm still surprised ...
Posted by RichieD on 1st of Mar 2022 at 02:07 pm
Shouldn't market sentiment be measured by what people actually do (buy or sell), not how they say they feel? If so, I'd argue that an overwhelming majority of investors have not sold much of anything since the start of the year; therefore sentiment isn't really negative. Watch what I do, not what I say. Majority have their money in retirement accounts and if anything, have sat tight since the start of the year, as they've been advised to do for the last 15-20 years.
If that's the situation, how low can "the market" go if those with retirement accounts ever panic en masse?
That's true. $NAAIM is at
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 1st of Mar 2022 at 02:22 pm
That's true. $NAAIM is at 44. Pretty low but not washout level. $CPC is also not at panic level. Sentiment can stay bearish for some time and price goes down for sure.
Probably rhetorical questions, but I'll
Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Mar 2022 at 02:17 pm
Probably rhetorical questions, but I'll offer my take anyway I don't see retirement accounts going to cash in masse in a panic scenario. However, when institutional investors all line up on the bearish side, we will be close to a bottom (e.g. when Tom Lee at FundStrat stops his bullish calls and people start admitting that a global recession later this year is a real possibility). I think we have a date with 360 on the SPY before this is all over (another 15+% down) but will likely have a few tradable rallies before we get there.
overall that newer version (wider
Posted by matt on 1st of Mar 2022 at 02:28 pm
overall that newer version (wider version less noise) of the daily KISS did very well in the past - protected well against those bear markets and most of the time at least matched the SPX and in some years exceeded it. 3 trades a year on average with 5 max. The KISS section of the website is a hodge podge of stuff, confusing. I am looking to clean all that up and greatly simplify it. And realize this version is not compete - it's never complete, will always be tweaked and made better with new logic. Instead of catching every market wiggle the goal will be to generally match the annual SPX returns, but without the draw down risk (because of the DVTs) and keeps you out of bear market declines.
again however guys that longer term crap, short term focuses on this wedge intra day
Matt, I really enjoy the
Posted by eagleowl on 1st of Mar 2022 at 02:33 pm
Matt, I really enjoy the newer version of the KISS system, and I'm hoping you can incorporate it into the website. It's just the type of system I am looking for, a longer term one that keeps you out of the bear markets. Thanks!
I agree with eagleowl. Please
Posted by goap1207 on 1st of Mar 2022 at 02:37 pm
I agree with eagleowl. Please please incorporate the KISS system. Thanks