Matt: In the chart of OKLO, are there specific indicators that
would lead you to buy somewhere in the handle vs wait for the
breakout, or is it more a question of style (aggressive trade
vs conservative) and comfort level?
Businesses already using tariffs to gouge the public. Here's a
simple example:
Tariffs are calculated based upon the price the importer
pays.
Pre-tariff:Importer pays $5.00 for a product. With
a 100% markup the retail price is $5.00 x2 = $10.00.
After a 10% tariff is enacted: Importer pays $5.00
+ $0.50 (10% tariff) = $5.50. With a 100% markup the retail cost
should be $5.00 x2 = $10.00 + the cost of the
tariff ($0.50) = $10.50.
Instead, businesses are apparently adding in the
10% tariff
before calculating their markup($5.00 +$0.50) x2 = $11.00, to come up with
the retail price. To me this is gouging.
That's in addition to the 25% tariffs on aluminum, steel and
imported autos and auto parts.
And what happens when those $1 million port fees (per port call
for Chinese-operated vessels and Chinese built vessels) kick
in?
Not to mention the elephant in the room: Will US businesses
selling American-made products take advantage of the situation and
raise prices (gouge) like many did during covid?
It will be difficult keeping the YOY numbers this low in July
because the month over month numbers for May and June of 2024 were
0%, and the month over month number forJuly 2024 was 0.1%.
Once those drop out of the calculation, the YOY CPI will be
higher. For example, if, over the next 5 months the month
over month numbers are 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.2%
(likely the best case scenario), the YOY number for the 12 months
ending July 2025 will 3.2%. And of course, if those month
over month numbers are higher...
Steve: When you say you'd like to see a red to green move (XERS
for example), can you share where your actual buy point would
be? Are you looking for a lower open, then if the stock
starts to move up you buy as soon as the candle turns green, or are
you looking for a lower open, a move up with the buy point being
above the prior day's high? Or something else?
Can anyone give me a technical read on SGN? Looks like it
hit bottom late January at just under $2.00/share, daily volume in
low 100,000's. Had a one-day move closing at $4.50 (intraday
high of $7.50) on volume of $100 million shares. Has drifted
back since closing today at $2.13/share on 103,000 shares traded.
Is this likely to pop again? Is it likely that volume
comes in? I have no idea what that 100 million shares was
about on a single day.
Steve, If the 10 Year Yield were to reach 5%, would you
deem it a reasonable place to park some longterm money not
earmarked for investment? What are the downside risks, if
any?
Not quite sure what you're referring to. Reported CPI year
over year for July was 2.9%; CPI year over year for August was
2.5%. That's a fairly low number considering CPI peaked at
9.1% in 2022. If you feel the numbers aren't to be trusted,
that's different and you wouldn't get an argument from me.
But as presented, the August CPI reported a few days ago does
not appear to be high.
Gold trading at $2526 this morning. Miners trading at
levels that were last seen when gold was at $1700-$1800. I
just don't get it. I know mining expenses have increased
somewhat in recent years, but energy prices are nearly the same.
All I heard years ago was that once gold went to all-time
highs the mining stocks would explode. Well it has and they
haven't...but why? In my opinion, the miners should be double
where they are at present based upon today's gold price.
Where am I wrong?
Thanks, Steve. Is that assessment based upon the market's
reaction to this morning's inflation number or were there earlier
signs over the past few weeks?
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Matt: In the chart of
OKLO and DNA
Posted by RichieD on 12th of Jun 2025 at 08:39 am
Matt: In the chart of OKLO, are there specific indicators that would lead you to buy somewhere in the handle vs wait for the breakout, or is it more a question of style (aggressive trade vs conservative) and comfort level?
Thanks, Steve. Interesting idea that
NTRP
Posted by RichieD on 9th of Jun 2025 at 08:16 am
Thanks, Steve. Interesting idea that warrants further investigation.
Threatening 50% tariffs on products
Trumps Big mouth Tariff 25 percent on AAPL if not ...
Posted by RichieD on 23rd of May 2025 at 08:08 am
Threatening 50% tariffs on products from the EU as well, starting June 1st, because "trade discussions are going nowhere".
Businesses already using tariffs to
Posted by RichieD on 8th of May 2025 at 10:08 am
Businesses already using tariffs to gouge the public. Here's a simple example:
Tariffs are calculated based upon the price the importer pays.
Pre-tariff:Importer pays $5.00 for a product. With a 100% markup the retail price is $5.00 x2 = $10.00.
After a 10% tariff is enacted: Importer pays $5.00 + $0.50 (10% tariff) = $5.50. With a 100% markup the retail cost should be $5.00 x2 = $10.00 + the cost of the tariff ($0.50) = $10.50.
Instead, businesses are apparently adding in the 10% tariff before calculating their markup ($5.00 +$0.50) x2 = $11.00, to come up with the retail price. To me this is gouging.
UK Deal
Posted by RichieD on 8th of May 2025 at 09:05 am
Economist pours cold water on UK "trade deal" announcement:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/08/business/video/trump-uk-trade-deal-economist-lcl-digvid
Nice summary. Thank you.
AA - Positives:Strong Financial Performance: Alcoa reported a significant increase in ...
Posted by RichieD on 17th of Apr 2025 at 08:31 am
Nice summary. Thank you.
China halts export of Rare
Posted by RichieD on 14th of Apr 2025 at 09:10 am
China halts export of Rare Earth Minerals. Not sure why this story is being ignored by the market.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html
Will see if it sticks,
Posted by RichieD on 9th of Apr 2025 at 10:17 am
Will see if it sticks, but it looks like today is the largest one day increase in gold in history. Not in % terms, just dollars. Still....
That's in addition to the
Country List
Posted by RichieD on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 06:23 pm
That's in addition to the 25% tariffs on aluminum, steel and imported autos and auto parts.
And what happens when those $1 million port fees (per port call for Chinese-operated vessels and Chinese built vessels) kick in?
Not to mention the elephant in the room: Will US businesses selling American-made products take advantage of the situation and raise prices (gouge) like many did during covid?
Cost of living just got a lot more expensive.
Understatement of the year.
Trump still not doing the market any favors. I have ...
Posted by RichieD on 31st of Mar 2025 at 07:44 am
Understatement of the year.
Port fee plan will be
Posted by RichieD on 19th of Mar 2025 at 09:42 am
Port fee plan will be far more destructive than tariffs if it goes through.
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1152844/US-could-face-trade-apocalypse-if-Trump-port-fee-plan-isnt-killed
It will be difficult keeping
USA CPI (MoM) For February 0.2% Vs 0.3% Est.; 0.5% ...
Posted by RichieD on 12th of Mar 2025 at 11:17 am
It will be difficult keeping the YOY numbers this low in July because the month over month numbers for May and June of 2024 were 0%, and the month over month number forJuly 2024 was 0.1%. Once those drop out of the calculation, the YOY CPI will be higher. For example, if, over the next 5 months the month over month numbers are 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.2% (likely the best case scenario), the YOY number for the 12 months ending July 2025 will 3.2%. And of course, if those month over month numbers are higher...
Steve: When you say you'd
Posted by RichieD on 19th of Feb 2025 at 08:44 am
Steve: When you say you'd like to see a red to green move (XERS for example), can you share where your actual buy point would be? Are you looking for a lower open, then if the stock starts to move up you buy as soon as the candle turns green, or are you looking for a lower open, a move up with the buy point being above the prior day's high? Or something else?
Can anyone give me a
Posted by RichieD on 18th of Feb 2025 at 05:28 pm
Can anyone give me a technical read on SGN? Looks like it hit bottom late January at just under $2.00/share, daily volume in low 100,000's. Had a one-day move closing at $4.50 (intraday high of $7.50) on volume of $100 million shares. Has drifted back since closing today at $2.13/share on 103,000 shares traded. Is this likely to pop again? Is it likely that volume comes in? I have no idea what that 100 million shares was about on a single day.
Steve, If the 10 Year
10 Year Yield 4.725%
Posted by RichieD on 8th of Jan 2025 at 09:19 am
Steve, If the 10 Year Yield were to reach 5%, would you deem it a reasonable place to park some longterm money not earmarked for investment? What are the downside risks, if any?
Why? Retest of breakout?
My guess is SLV has 29.50 to 30 area as ...
Posted by RichieD on 22nd of Oct 2024 at 07:47 am
Why? Retest of breakout?
Not quite sure what you're
Fed fund futures now pricing in 40% chance of 50 ...
Posted by RichieD on 13th of Sep 2024 at 07:45 am
Not quite sure what you're referring to. Reported CPI year over year for July was 2.9%; CPI year over year for August was 2.5%. That's a fairly low number considering CPI peaked at 9.1% in 2022. If you feel the numbers aren't to be trusted, that's different and you wouldn't get an argument from me. But as presented, the August CPI reported a few days ago does not appear to be high.
Novel idea: Wait for the
Pre Market
Posted by RichieD on 22nd of Aug 2024 at 09:53 am
Novel idea: Wait for the actual data before reporting instead of surveying businesses and extrapolating.
Gold trading at $2526 this
Posted by RichieD on 16th of Aug 2024 at 11:15 am
Gold trading at $2526 this morning. Miners trading at levels that were last seen when gold was at $1700-$1800. I just don't get it. I know mining expenses have increased somewhat in recent years, but energy prices are nearly the same. All I heard years ago was that once gold went to all-time highs the mining stocks would explode. Well it has and they haven't...but why? In my opinion, the miners should be double where they are at present based upon today's gold price. Where am I wrong?
Thanks, Steve. Is that assessment
Market has priced in lower inflation - focus on the ...
Posted by RichieD on 14th of Aug 2024 at 09:47 am
Thanks, Steve. Is that assessment based upon the market's reaction to this morning's inflation number or were there earlier signs over the past few weeks?