Matt: I'm not involved with this stock, but I'm still confused. Quite often you mention you've taken a trade "inside the pattern", whatever the pattern may be. Other times you seem to take the trade on a breakout or, on a retest of the breakout. Is there any criteria that points you to one approach over another or is it just a gut feeling?  In this case buying inside the pattern would have been a disaster.  It's not good enough to simply say no trigger no trade unless you only play breakouts.  

Anecdotally speaking, given the fickle nature of the market and knowing news before the bell often drives a stock's move at the open, and seeing a plethora of gaps either way at the open, I can only conclude that buying inside a pattern is higher risk (and potentially higher reward) than buying a breakout.  Am I missing something? Can you share how you determine which approach to take in any given situation?

Was this a day trade with a tight trailing stop?  Just curious how you set the stop, if you are willing to share.

The NKE monthly chart looks eerily similar to the SLV daily chart (posted earlier).

One of the biggest white candles I have ever seen on a daily chart where a stock trades that much volume...

Fidelity says no, I say yes.  I owned MOS a few days. Stock closed yesterday at $26.20. My overnight stop loss was set days before at $26.04. Stock gapped lower and opened at $25.83. My fill was $25.28. Here are the details of the first 3 minutes of trading.

minute 1.  Open = $25.83.  High = $26.03. Low = $25.38. Close = $25.42

minute 2.  Open = $25.42. High = $25.53.  Low = $25.38  Close = $25.45

minute 3.  Open = $25.36. High = $25.47. Low = $25.20. Close = $25.36 (over night stop loss of $26.04 filled at $25.83)

My order was filled in the 3rd minute of trading!! Fidelity told me every overnight stop loss order that triggers at the open must first be confirmed by the system as being a round lot order (even if previously in place) beforethe stop loss can be processed. ..and that confirmation can ONLY happen AFTERthe market opens.  Then...the order is converted to a market order...but is queued up BEHIND all  market orders received at the open.  In other words, market orders placed just prior to the open are given priority over a stop loss that was in place at the prior day's close.  Hence, my order could not be filled until the 3rd minute of trading even though my stop loss was triggered at the open. 

Fidelity says this is a market rule.  If true, it would mean that just prior to the open each day and to get a better fill, I would need to convert a stop loss order to a market order if the pre-market quote indicates a gap down below my stop loss price at the open.  

Seems ridiculous.  But is it true?

Matt, 

Matt's Macro Plays have been a great addition to Breakpoint Trades. I like them because they're based upon technical indicators but also include an element of fundamental reasoning. That said, although these are longer term ideas, it appears you trade in and out of them short-term, much like you do with regular BPT trade ideas.  If that's correct, could you explain why you do so rather than hold them for years?  And could you share a list of the Matt's Macro Plays positions you currently hold?  Thanks.

Thanks. Three follow up questions:

1. Doesn't the use of any indicator at the CLOSE leave a trader vulnerable to a major sell off intraday?

2. What is a DMA and what are the advantages to using it vs either an  SMA or EMA?

3. Assuming the DMA fluctuates during the trading day, why is it better to use vs a hard stop based upon a support level or trend line?  I had the impression Matt often uses hard stops based upon support levels.

Long time holder of gold and silver mining positions. Retired. End of 2024 my precious metal positions (gold/silver/platinum) represented 24% of my portfolio. Due to parabolic moves, yesterday they represented about 65%.  Wanted to reduce overall exposure/take some profit.  Couldn't be in front of a computer screen today at the open, knew mining stocks would open higher but worried they might take a hit today. Opted to place stops while away on about 7 of my 16 positions using daily candlestick charts and recent lows.  Most were hard stops that fell into the 4.5%-5% category.  Sold one position (HL) in its entirety yesterday for a healthy profit. 

6 of the 7 stops triggered early morning in/around where the stocks closed end of day today.  My exposure to precious metals was reduced by 1/3rd. Though not at the high, profits were significant on positions sold, so no complaints. Don't know if the selloff will continue tomorrow or was more of a one day shakeout similar to what happened earlier this week. I think the latter because gold and silver prices were up end of today, I assume stocks will rebound tomorrow or early next week. That may or may not play out. 

So here's my thinking about placing stops on longterm positions when precious metal stocks go parabolic.  The best approach seems to be EITHER to place a hard stop  6%-7% below current price (which will limit damage in case of a crash) OR place a tighter (3%) TRAILING STOP on positions you are willing to close out. ..knowing you may get stopped out on noise.  The 4.5%-5% scenario I placed seems to be the incorrect approach - one that often triggers due to a short term shakeout, followed by a quick rebound in stock price.  My conclusion is based strictly on anecdotal evidence and may be off base.  Trying to get better at this.   Any thoughts?

Looking for suggestions on how best to manage my gold/silver stocks which have vaulted higher in the last year and a half.  Sitting on huge gains. These have been long term plays I've been in 5-10 years.  Other than a handful of Matt's macro plays which I've been in a few months, the remainder of my positions are short term trades (1-10 days or less).  Trade in and out of those based on candlestick patterns and support levels.

Feeling like we have to be approaching a short term top (at least that's what the candlestick patterns seem to imply) since we've come so far so fast. Don't want to be greedy but don't want to miss another 25% move.  With short term trades I'm usually all in or all out.  For the gold/silver with monster gains, is it better to take half off the table with a hard stop on the balance, or put a 5% trailing stop on entire positions?  Or is there a better way to participate in the remaining rally without being all in or all out?  Happy to reduce my overall exposure and relax for several months, with an idea of getting back in again down the road...even if it turns out I've missed some gains.  Being retired I'm thinking a little less risk makes sense.

Good position to be in but difficult to navigate.  Suspect others are in the same situation.  Thoughts?

Two questions: Is it from a reliable source?  How atypical are the activities on this list?

Much appreciated, Matt. Thank you.

Shouldn't those who bought this stock as a trade been stopped out at around $10.30 when it broke the uptrend line in late July?

Any opinion where this seemingly strong rally in Gold/Silver (and the miners) goes to over the next few weeks? Does it stop short of the recent highs and reverse (creating a lower high) or does it break out to new highs yet again?  Psychologically tricky point in time for those who have held long term positions.

Exceptionally good newsletter - thank you.

How can anyone trust tomorrow's CPI #?  Have to believe the Administration told the BLS employees to report a low # or risk being fired.  There are three reasons: 1. a low CPI makes trump look good on paper despite the obvious: rampant inflation everywhere you turn; 2. The government has every incentive for keeping the CPI as low as possible (adjustments to social security payments for 2026 are yet to be finalized); and 3. trump wants the Fed to cut rates substantially or do so multiple times.  Old Sufi proverb:"Trust in God but tie your camel first".

Thanks for the charts and link; excellent interview. Reminds me of 2007 when a handful of traders were screaming there's a housing/mortgage/financial crisis brewing and no one was listening.

Just curious; at what entry price?  I wonder how many individuals had advance notice of the government taking a 10% stake in this one...

Any thoughts on how the general market/precious metals will respond to a 1/4 point rate cut vs a 1/2 point rate cut today?   Will Powell's guidance have more impact than the rate cut itself? Will the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq and precious metals move together or will they bifurcate?  Anyone establishing new positions in advance?  Will this be more of a non-event in terms of movement?

You nailed this long term trend five years ago, Matt; I've been riding it up ever since.  Thank you.  The latest monthly candle is bumping up against the top of the long term supply zone that you drew.  Can it break out after consolidation and move to all-time highs, or would you favor a significant pullback on the monthly chart at this point?