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Air Gas used to be publicly traded, but it got taken private. 

Any ideas on how to

Posted by jtsurfah on 8th of Jul 2020 at 02:49 pm

Any ideas on how to get exposure to the Patio Heater market through publicly traded equities?
I'd like to be more upstream than Home Depot or Lowes.  Cali shutting down dining again, but tearing up the requirements for permits to set up dining outside, including parking lots. Even in Cali, come  September or so (depending on location), people will want patio heaters in the mornings and evenings.  I'm guessing the trend spreads nationally and likely even internationally? 

Anyone looking at Homebuilder components?

Posted by jtsurfah on 8th of Jul 2020 at 12:29 pm

Anyone looking at Homebuilder components?  Looks like a few of them are breaking out of coils or moving bullishly within a coil today (LEN, PHB, etc). 

definitely agree with selling calls

TSLA options

Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 09:34 pm

definitely agree with selling calls against TSLA ,  Just would be very careful about selling puts to offset cost of stock, in this particular case. I'd prefer to sell puts on something I think maybe bottoming or near major support and use the proceeds to purchase stock or calls.  

Thanks! I'm starting to work on my Interactive Brokers Python API.  Something like this shouldn't be too hard to program in along with live data and order execution. VectorVest seems expensive. Which of their products does this tool come with?  I'm guessing that even if I can't pull it off myself (this I can), I could get a developer to build this out for me for less than VV's subscription cost. 

A lot of brokers have  portfolio rebalancing tools these days. But don't think of it as just for rebalancing. Plug in a ticker, plug in the target percentage (as a % of total account) and hit the create rebalance orders button.  No need to think about number of shares, dollar values, etc, etc. I love the one at Interactive Brokers - only downside is that it doesn't work well for option spreads (I use it for everything else).  I will often enter a position at 1.5% increase to 3% on weakness, potentially scale up to around 5% if it falls down near my stop price (typically a support area) and then scale out the same way (if I don't get stopped out). 

Risk reversal on TSLA seems

TSLA options

Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 04:26 pm

Risk reversal on TSLA seems incredibly risky with the 38.2% retracement of the move from March currently at $1010.  That would just be a standard pullback....and I'd expect a decent likelihood that TSLA retraces to the 50 or 61.8% (881 & 753) at some point (like all equities do eventually).  Speaking from experience, it's not fun when a risk reversal goes hard against you. Even though you know it's only a paper loss until it gets below your short strike, it can blow up an account while you're waiting for the premium to decay. 

"Risk Reversal" strategies are great.

TSLA options

Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 04:09 pm

"Risk Reversal" strategies are great. I prefer the classic approach of selling a put to finance the price of a call (sometimes for a small credit), but you can do it with stock instead (as described).  Personally, I would only do stock vs options for tax reasons and/or because the underlying pays a decent sized dividend that I want to capture. 

I'm a huge fan of spreads (mostly debit spreads, but some credit spreads). However, I pretty much had to stop using them in client accounts. One reason is that they are difficult to size correctly unless account size is large (with the relatively large average PPS these days). Also, when market crashes (happens regularly with the Fed juicing everything these days), it is very difficult to explain that the exploding vol is making the account look much worse than it really is (unless forced to liquidate before expiry). I definitely still use them in my personal accounts. Almost exclusively. 

Thx. I'll also post when

out of all puts for loss

Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 12:19 pm

Thx. I'll also post when I let mine go - me giving up on protection usually signals the market is near a top   

Will probably resolve down as soon as I give up on fighting the Fed and go all in on the long side   

Rising wedge on QQQ's daily

Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jul 2020 at 01:58 pm

Rising wedge on QQQ's daily chart (old high in Feb to March low forms one side). Seems most likely to eventually resolve down, not up, but we will see.

INTU - been monitoring it

Posted by jtsurfah on 29th of Jun 2020 at 02:44 pm

INTU - been monitoring it for a break above the ascending triangle , but the company got destroyed on an episode of "Patriot Act" that I watched on Netflix yesterday.  They way "the mob" has been able to dole out justice lately, I'm not sure I would touch INTU with that episode floating around.  
*I try not to be political and am a moderate when I am, but the show did have some good points about INTU marketing tactics that I have actually experienced myself. 

AKAM coiling on multiple timeframes

Posted by jtsurfah on 29th of Jun 2020 at 02:33 pm

AKAM coiling on multiple timeframes

LITE - nice triangle on

Posted by jtsurfah on 26th of Jun 2020 at 05:56 pm

LITE - nice triangle on daily

AKAM might be worth a

Posted by jtsurfah on 26th of Jun 2020 at 05:47 pm

AKAM might be worth a look.
Was coiling and busted out today (higher)

Consider XSP as an alternative

SPX 10 and 5 min

Posted by jtsurfah on 26th of Jun 2020 at 12:38 am

Consider XSP as an alternative to SPX if size is an issue. Even 1 SPX option is a large chunk of notional value - XSP is 10x vs SPX at 100x. Same tax treatment.
Downside is that you don't get the extended markets with XSP that you do with SPX. But how many people even realize that SPX  (and VIX) starts trading at 2am?  

I sent that graphic you

Funny caption I made

Posted by jtsurfah on 26th of Jun 2020 at 12:32 am

I sent that graphic you made to a lot of peeps. Got a good reaction. Thx. 

Exactly. I had multiple clients

Funny caption I made

Posted by jtsurfah on 26th of Jun 2020 at 12:30 am

Exactly. I had multiple clients today ask me if we should go to cash. For the first time, I erred on the side of "fundamentals don't matter anymore." Maybe it's a sign of a top ;)

FCEL also nice today. A

PLUG follow up

Posted by jtsurfah on 24th of Jun 2020 at 02:41 pm

FCEL also nice today.
A good friend of mine owns a related biz in Australia. He says the industry is suddenly ON FIRE. 

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