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Matt or Steve will probably

VIX Updated Views

Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 04:47 pm

Matt or Steve will probably discuss it tonight but I think Matt was describing a possible divergence which would potentially result in a positive move for SPX and a negative move for the VIX. Sounds like he was referring to a daily time frame. 

Wow. Kind of huge on

TSLA out of S&P 500

Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 03:51 pm

Wow. Kind of huge on a couple levels....but for now with TSLA at a 96 PE and AAPL at a 23 PE, I don't see valuation support for the broader market. 

"not budging" means staying in

VIX Updated Views

Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 03:36 pm

"not budging" means staying in short term strong uptrend? Trying to square this with VVIX signal above 110  that Matt pointed out. VIX looks like it's filling an open gap to me, but the VVIX signal is concerning (but I don't know the mechanics of the VVIX indicator all that well)

TSLA - anyone else seeing

Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of May 2022 at 12:09 pm

TSLA - anyone else seeing an objective short on the 30 min chart? I was so mad when they put this in the S&P. Big fan but the valuation is/was nonsense. With its size in a cap weighted index, is it possible it doesn't take down the index if it goes down? (my target is 505 ish)

PTON - I still have

PTON weekly

Posted by jtsurfah on 10th of May 2022 at 11:17 am

PTON - I still have people asking me to buy this one for them.  I  have declined since day 1, and had no regrets even when it was going up every day, but fans will be fans.. 

Anyone selling upside calls on

Posted by jtsurfah on 9th of May 2022 at 01:31 pm

Anyone selling upside calls on SPY, SPX, XSP, etc?  What strikes are you selling?I typically like to sell 45 days to expiration, 16 delta (or less...but it's tough here because the fibs set up to touch those levels on a decent bounce.  

Morton7 speaking for the rich guys. He's fired     

Is there an ETF for commodities exposure in foreign currency terms? 

Commodities slightly positive today with

Posted by jtsurfah on 5th of May 2022 at 12:46 pm

Commodities slightly positive today with the USD impact stripped out (PDBC or DBC vs UUP)

Bonds are too.  I was looking a friends 401K options last week and was surprised to find that the "stable value" fund in his list of options was returning around 2%. That's not "stable" in a 8% inflationary world, but it's better than losing capital (on top of debasing what you have left). 

UUP & XLE with an

Posted by jtsurfah on 3rd of May 2022 at 11:25 am

UUP & XLE with an inflationary backdrop - we know that dollar strength doesn't tell the story of inflation because it's measured against a basket of other currencies...which largely follow the same policies and have the same issues as a result. But, and this is a question I'm trying to work out for myself...maybe with the help of some of you, if/when the dollar gives up some of its recent parabolic move, inflation pain for Americans should increase somewhat proportionally (all other things remaining equal)....right? I mean, it's been basically amazing to me that energy and commodities (not today, but overall) have been so strong in the face of dollar strength. That tells me that inflation is really MUCH worse that it feels and may really bite if the dollar backs down from here. My family (except me) runs a business that does a lot of work in Europe (specially Italy) and they are hurting over there much worse because they are buying the same commodities but with a much weaker currency.  Am I off base?  Is it possible that a dollar retracement of recent move will be fuel on the fire of XLE and PDBC since they are largely priced in USD? 

I think her point is to provide a sector / factor ETF for money managers looking for a simple way to add exposure. No money manager in their right mind would hold ARKK as a large percentage of a portfolio, but it's been useful for gaining exposure in "risk on" environments. I've never her heard her describe it as a "diversified" solution. It's in my toolbox as a future shortcut when I sense I turn in those type of names. 

That's one approach, but daily is too short term for me. I'm selling 16 ish delta SPX and NDX puts when the market is down and selling SPX/NDX calls when it's up. Typically going out 45 DTE and rolling around 21 DTE.  If you're targeting 10% - 15% per year, you don't have to risk much to make it happen. It's always tempting to go bigger because 16 dela trades works nearly 90% of the time,...but the 10% of the time it doesn't work can and basically always does happen eventually so I keep my size appropriate. 

Thanks!

SPX Triangle Option

Posted by jtsurfah on 11th of Apr 2022 at 02:49 pm

Thanks!

Do annotations show up consistently

SPX Triangle Option

Posted by jtsurfah on 11th of Apr 2022 at 02:07 pm

Do annotations show up consistently with "chart links" for subscribers of Stockcharts.com?  In the links above, I only show the support areas. I much prefer TradingView.com, but I guess I would add stockcharts.comif it meant I could bookmark BPT charts more effectively. 

I don't know of anything that does this out of the box. However, if you are comfortable with API's, then you're only limited to your imagination with a lot of platforms. Interactive borkers has a few API templates in Python and other languages. Let me know if you find anything that is more plug and play - I'm also interested in the type of automation you are suggesting. 

AMD breaking above resistance. Looks

Posted by jtsurfah on 24th of Mar 2022 at 11:42 am

AMD breaking above resistance. Looks like next stop / resistance around $124.61?

Open System trades - any

Posted by jtsurfah on 21st of Mar 2022 at 01:36 pm

Open System trades - any idea on what it would take to get the open system trade (short SPX) to close? 

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