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Just a quick scalp? Looks

QQQ 15 min

Posted by jtsurfah on 14th of Feb 2020 at 02:50 pm

Just a quick scalp? Looks like negative divergences on almost all the indicators, right?

Know the upper limit of the premium (extrinsic value) you're willing to pay and set your limits there.  Of course, premium will change relative to your bid  price as the underlying moves - so, if you don't get filled, you can't leave your order in place for very long without adjusting it.  I almost always use spreads, so my calculation is a combination of long & short premium in order to arrive at the total premium I plan to collect (typically collecting premium vs paying it).  For the most part, I stick to options with much tighter spreads than what you're describing. 

Sorry about the lack of patience. I'm in Hawaii and looking for an early exit to get some kiteboarding in while the wind is still good today :) 

RE the SPY system possible

Posted by jtsurfah on 3rd of Dec 2019 at 03:30 pm

RE the SPY system possible Trade alert -  potential option month/strike? 

Any related thoughts on the

Interactive Brokers issue

Posted by jtsurfah on 28th of Oct 2019 at 12:11 pm

Any related thoughts on the micro version of the ES? (/MES)

ESNT looks like a nice

Posted by jtsurfah on 20th of Sep 2019 at 05:25 pm

ESNT looks like a nice breakout with volume to confirm.  

I just rolled SPY put spread into October.  Seems range bound for now...but we're trained to fear SEP/OCT, right?  Full disclosure, I took off all my protection in anticipation of the Santa rally last year....didn't work out so well. 

Uncovered my MTG calls this

Posted by jtsurfah on 30th of Aug 2019 at 04:14 pm

Uncovered my MTG calls this week and feeling good about it. Seems like an ideal setup. Positive divergences on most indicators. Thoughts?

I know this is all

AMD following through

Posted by jtsurfah on 9th of Aug 2019 at 07:35 pm

I know this is all about technical analysis, but how much exposure does AMD and/or the sector have to trade wars, rumors of wars, etc?  I'm a big holder myself, but I use options spreads exclusively for this name....and it's helped me sleep through the volatility. 

Thoughts on the strike you

Posted by jtsurfah on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 03:37 pm

Thoughts on the strike you might choose if going the option route on the SPY trade?

I'm looking to go long now on the break above 293. .

the break failed  (final part was right at Trump's announcement) and fell right back into the old pattern...

Was going to post this

Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Aug 2019 at 01:12 pm

Was going to post this one that seemed to be flagging last night (LVPB), but ran into tech issues. The second screenshot is the follow through so far today. 

Yep, and by the initial

some long ideas

Posted by jtsurfah on 22nd of Jul 2019 at 04:33 pm

Yep, and by the initial looks of things it was a decent report. First move was up a couple of percent but now down slightly.  Not a lot of AH action / volume on this one. 

OIH went parabolic

A system not being profitable on a certain trade or trades is not a failure in my mind.  If anyone knows of  a100% system that generates more than 1 or 2 signals per year, please let us know.  The idea is to take each trade the system generates in order to take the emotion out of the trading process. If it's been backtested properly and the structure / mechanics of the particular market you are trading do not experience an unusual shift, the system should generate positive returns over the medium to longer term. Trying to cherry pick winning signals from losing signals from inside a single system, kind of defeats the purpose. I'm also afraid that trying to explain each time the system does not produce a profitable signal will make Matt gun shy about providing more systems in the future because people mistakenly seem to expect perfection.  

Divergence on some of the shorter term charts

Any thoughts on TBT for

Posted by jtsurfah on 28th of Mar 2019 at 07:57 pm

Any thoughts on TBT for a short term trade?   

On the long side, my portfolio is 100% spread trades right now (many of them BPT ideas). I have been buying deep in the money calls (stock replacement with very little premium) and selling in the money calls so I can enter with some downside protection built in.  Yes, I limit my upside with this approach, but it seems crazy to put new long money to work with the charts looking the way they do right now.  

Were last nights' statistics from Back-testing or Actual Trade Data? 

Thanks for the SPY system

SPY Exhaustion Trade Stats

Posted by jtsurfah on 13th of Feb 2019 at 04:39 pm

Thanks for the SPY system notification last night.  I bought some in the money SPX puts to fade this morning's opening push. All the action/volume was on the out of the money side, but that's not really my style unless it's a gamble type trade. I also typically stick to spread trades, but in this case, I went with naked puts because I don't see holding them for very long. 

1st target is the 9 EMA around 2720?  Unofficially of course - I realize you have discontinued the SPY system for the time being. 


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