So far today two sub systems are still set to go long at the
close on SPY: Strap and Trend. Out of the two the Trend is
the weaker of the systems. The Strap stats have strong stats. I
also have the same systems on ES that are gonna trigger as well,
Strap and Trend. On ES in particular the Strap stats are crazy
good. The problem with the Strap is that it's just a quick trade of
about 3 - 4 days on average. The Trend system has the potential to
have some draw down. I'll post more later on. Here's the Strap
stats on ES for example
Trade list: It's really nerve racking on my end trying to
communicate that especially when I have to wait 2 min after the
close to confirm a trade that is on the edge. Why 2 min, because
the SPY closing price doesn't confirm until 4:02. I'm then entry
the trades myself, and enter trades in a hedge fund. I realize some
of you at times might not have time to fill those options exactly
but I do the best that I can, here's the table
Thanks for giving the heads up earlier...I did take a few trades
then but waited for the bulk until you gave the go ahead. I am new
to after hours trading and see that even on SPY prices are slightly
worse than the close but regardless, we are talking pennies and I'm
glad to be in on my first trade with BPT SPY system!
On this note, is it better to buy SPY at market in the after
hour session or put in a limit for the price we closed at? I put in
a limit near market to purchase this time but it was higher than
the close. Would it be better to put a limit in at the closing
price knowing it may not fill? Just want to get this right going
forward. Thanks
here's an old description of the systems, which I will be adding
back to the SPY section, also some of these need updated, but this
gives a very brief description of the systems
Longs:
1.
Trend long- only buys pullbacks when prices are
above long term MA's along with up sloping MA's, exits when certain
indicators recycle
2.
QE Long- A reversion to mean trade similar to the
Larry Conners RSI 2 reversion to mean strategy, however uses a %R
indicator instead. Price must be over the 200 day MA for
longs and below for shorts.
3.
Pullback long trade- similar to the Trend
Long but slightly different settings
4.
Very strong trend pullback Long- takes long trades
only when price is moving up strongly and the 20 day MA is up
sloping strong and RSI 3 oversold
5.
Bear Long- a special type long trade that only
occurs in bear markets, very stringent conditions and rare but very
reliable. various filters built in here to allow it to exit quickly
if need to for a small bounce only, or hold the trade for 1 - 2
months if conditions look ripe for a strong move off the
lows
6
. Exhaustion Long in bull market - opposite
of the Exhaustion Short above, occurs when price is too stretched
oversold, however price is still in a bull market. Bull market is
defined generally when price is above the 200 MA and it is in a
positive slope. I have two versions of this, 1 and
2
7.
Exhaustion Long in bear market - similar to the
one above, but occurs in bear markets so price has to be stretched
MUCH further oversold
8.
RSI 14 long off 40%- occurs in bull markets only,
when 14 RSI V's off the 40% level
9.
RSI 14 oversold trade- RSI is very oversold
long, various filters built in here to allow it to exit quickly if
need to for a small bounce, or hold the trade for 1 - 2 months if
conditions look ripe for a strong move off the lows
10.
Strap Long- a specialized Long trade that occurs
when a Stochastic indicator gets oversold but price remains above a
short term MA like the 20 - 30 MA
11.
60 Stochastic Long off 50%- uses a 60
Length Stochastic, which is a trending Stochastic setting, the
condition occurs near the 50% level of the 60 length
Stochastic.
12.
Breakout System- This is a NEW system that I
developed in early 2017 that is non-reversion to mean. It is
different than the other long strategies in that it doesn't require
a pullback in an uptrend to go long, instead it buys strength or a
breakout condition! In very low volatility markets like the
one we've seen in 2017 that has had the lowest volatility in 100
years, the market has had very shallow pullbacks which were not
deep enough for many of the reversion to mean systems to catch -
the breakout system can catch these trades. This system addition is
yet another diversification to the system.
13.
Stochastic Momo- a new sub systems I developed in July 2019, that uses a 60
length Stochastic trending over 80% to note momentum uptrend
conditions, along with a %R indicator to buy shallow pullbacks.
This system catches shallow pullbacks in a strong uptrending market
where you most other reversion to mean systems will not trigger
because the pullbacks are too shallow to trigger this.
Shorts:
1.
QE Short - Like the one above, but for shorts,
different filters etc
2.
Exhaustion Short #1- this trade take short
trades when the market is in a very strong uptrend, but
statistically is very very stretched such as over 22 days above the
8 day MA and %R over 90%, exits on a quick pullback. I have 2
versions of this, 1 and 2
3.
Exhaustion Short #2- same methodology as
above, however slightly different settings
4/5/6.
Hi, Mid, Low short- these are three type of
short trades that occur primarily in bear markets when price gets
overbought, I have 3 types of these
7.
60 Stochastic Short off 80%- uses a
60 Length Stochastic, which is a trending Stochastic setting, the
condition occurs near the 80% level of the 60 length
Stochastic.
8.
60 Stochastic Short off 50%- same
general logic as the one above, except this condition occurs near
the 50% level on the 60 length Stochastic.
9.
34 Stochastic Short off 80%- same
as trades above but uses a 34 length for Stochastic instead of 60
length
10.
60 DVDS Stochastic trade- similar
trade to above, but uses a special normalized Stochastic
indicator
11.
Strap Short- a specialized Short trade that
occurs when a Stochastic indicator gets overbought but price
remains below a short term MA like the 20 - 30 MA
- that's a list of most of the individual small systems, that
all work individually, and together
Good afternoon everyone, as you know
the market has been selling off this week strongly, especially
following the FOMC. The SPY Pro high probability systems have been
in the safety of cash during this time. However today with the
market sell off, two of the sub systems are going long via 1st
entries (Strap and Trend systems). The Strap sub system has
very strong statistics with a historical trades of 93.25% winners
and 74 total trades since 1995. However the Strap tends to be a
very quick trade, lasting on average 3 - 5 days only.
The Trend Trade has good statistics,
however out of all the sub systems it has the potential for most
draw down, so keep that in mind, there are quite a few situations
in the past where it took 3 entries.
For trades today we are 1st entry
long trades for both sub systems:
For Strap Long: - Long 34 shares of SPY ETF ($10K)
- option: long one contract, Sept 20th 265 strike
price
For Trend Long - Long 34 shares of SPY ETF ($10K)
- option: long one contract, Oct 18th 259 strike price
Note options trade until 4:15, so
you have 15 min after the close to enter them
For the ETF you have up to 4 hrs as
ETF trades until 8 pm in after hrs market
enjoy the rest of your Friday and have a good weekend. I'll
update the website trades later today and I will be doing the
weekend newsletter
this is an example of how the email will look for the trades.
What will change probably between now and the close will be the
specific option strike prices, and of coruse if one of the systems
lost the conditions only one of them may do a trade.
---------
Good afternoon everyone, as you know
the market has been selling off this week strongly, especially
following the FOMC. The SPY Pro high probability systems have been
in the safety of cash during this time. However today with the
market sell off, two of the sub systems are going long via 1st
entries (Strap and Trend systems). The Strap sub system has
very strong statistics with a historical trades of 93.25% winners
and 74 total trades since 1995. However the Strap tends to be a
very quick trade, lasting on average 3 - 5 days only.
The Trend Trade has good statistics,
however out of all the sub systems it has the potential for most
draw down, so keep that in mind, there are quite a few situations
in the past where it took 3 entries.
For trades today we are 1st entry
long trades for both sub systems:
For Strap Long: - Long 34 shares of SPY ETF ($10K)
- option: long one contract, Sept 20th 265 strike
price
For Trend Long - Long 34 shares of SPY ETF ($10K)
- option: long one contract, Oct 18th 258 strike price
for the moment Strap has lost it's conditions to go long, unless
we pullback more before the close. If price holds up here before
the close then only one sub systems may take a trade, the Trend
the system would not chase a short after the market has already
pulled back like this. It shorts rallies. just like most trades buy
dips except for the breakout system
this is not the time of day to go into specifics on things like
what each sub system looks at etc, I've very busy here and have to
focus, and we need this area clear for intra day market
observations as well
IDK man, things should display fine on both table and phone, I'm
not sure about the auto refresh though, you can just click the
Chronological button to refresh
eventually one day if our programmer gets off his butt we'll
have an IOS/Android app that would be the easiest way but that's
not ready yet, early beta
Systems SPY etc, probably trades today early heads up
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 12:34 pm
So far today two sub systems are still set to go long at the close on SPY: Strap and Trend. Out of the two the Trend is the weaker of the systems. The Strap stats have strong stats. I also have the same systems on ES that are gonna trigger as well, Strap and Trend. On ES in particular the Strap stats are crazy good. The problem with the Strap is that it's just a quick trade of about 3 - 4 days on average. The Trend system has the potential to have some draw down. I'll post more later on. Here's the Strap stats on ES for example
Trade list: It's really nerve
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:41 pm
Trade list: It's really nerve racking on my end trying to communicate that especially when I have to wait 2 min after the close to confirm a trade that is on the edge. Why 2 min, because the SPY closing price doesn't confirm until 4:02. I'm then entry the trades myself, and enter trades in a hedge fund. I realize some of you at times might not have time to fill those options exactly but I do the best that I can, here's the table
email sent, man stressful when
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:04 pm
email sent, man stressful when it's on the edge like that, both systems went, strap triggered by mere pennies
Thanks for giving the heads
Posted by cozz101 on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:29 pm
Thanks for giving the heads up earlier...I did take a few trades then but waited for the bulk until you gave the go ahead. I am new to after hours trading and see that even on SPY prices are slightly worse than the close but regardless, we are talking pennies and I'm glad to be in on my first trade with BPT SPY system!
On this note, is it
Posted by cozz101 on 3rd of Aug 2019 at 09:22 am
On this note, is it better to buy SPY at market in the after hour session or put in a limit for the price we closed at? I put in a limit near market to purchase this time but it was higher than the close. Would it be better to put a limit in at the closing price knowing it may not fill? Just want to get this right going forward. Thanks
here's an old description of
Posted by matt on 4th of Aug 2019 at 01:20 pm
here's an old description of the systems, which I will be adding back to the SPY section, also some of these need updated, but this gives a very brief description of the systems
Longs:
1. Trend long- only buys pullbacks when prices are above long term MA's along with up sloping MA's, exits when certain indicators recycle
2. QE Long- A reversion to mean trade similar to the Larry Conners RSI 2 reversion to mean strategy, however uses a %R indicator instead. Price must be over the 200 day MA for longs and below for shorts.
3. Pullback long trade- similar to the Trend Long but slightly different settings
4. Very strong trend pullback Long- takes long trades only when price is moving up strongly and the 20 day MA is up sloping strong and RSI 3 oversold
5. Bear Long- a special type long trade that only occurs in bear markets, very stringent conditions and rare but very reliable. various filters built in here to allow it to exit quickly if need to for a small bounce only, or hold the trade for 1 - 2 months if conditions look ripe for a strong move off the lows
6 . Exhaustion Long in bull market - opposite of the Exhaustion Short above, occurs when price is too stretched oversold, however price is still in a bull market. Bull market is defined generally when price is above the 200 MA and it is in a positive slope. I have two versions of this, 1 and 2
7. Exhaustion Long in bear market - similar to the one above, but occurs in bear markets so price has to be stretched MUCH further oversold
8. RSI 14 long off 40%- occurs in bull markets only, when 14 RSI V's off the 40% level
9. RSI 14 oversold trade- RSI is very oversold long, various filters built in here to allow it to exit quickly if need to for a small bounce, or hold the trade for 1 - 2 months if conditions look ripe for a strong move off the lows
10. Strap Long- a specialized Long trade that occurs when a Stochastic indicator gets oversold but price remains above a short term MA like the 20 - 30 MA
11. 60 Stochastic Long off 50%- uses a 60 Length Stochastic, which is a trending Stochastic setting, the condition occurs near the 50% level of the 60 length Stochastic.
12. Breakout System- This is a NEW system that I developed in early 2017 that is non-reversion to mean. It is different than the other long strategies in that it doesn't require a pullback in an uptrend to go long, instead it buys strength or a breakout condition! In very low volatility markets like the one we've seen in 2017 that has had the lowest volatility in 100 years, the market has had very shallow pullbacks which were not deep enough for many of the reversion to mean systems to catch - the breakout system can catch these trades. This system addition is yet another diversification to the system.
13. Stochastic Momo - a new sub systems I developed in July 2019, that uses a 60 length Stochastic trending over 80% to note momentum uptrend conditions, along with a %R indicator to buy shallow pullbacks. This system catches shallow pullbacks in a strong uptrending market where you most other reversion to mean systems will not trigger because the pullbacks are too shallow to trigger this.
Shorts:
1. QE Short - Like the one above, but for shorts, different filters etc
2. Exhaustion Short #1- this trade take short trades when the market is in a very strong uptrend, but statistically is very very stretched such as over 22 days above the 8 day MA and %R over 90%, exits on a quick pullback. I have 2 versions of this, 1 and 2
3. Exhaustion Short #2- same methodology as above, however slightly different settings
4/5/6. Hi, Mid, Low short- these are three type of short trades that occur primarily in bear markets when price gets overbought, I have 3 types of these
7. 60 Stochastic Short off 80%- uses a 60 Length Stochastic, which is a trending Stochastic setting, the condition occurs near the 80% level of the 60 length Stochastic.
8. 60 Stochastic Short off 50%- same general logic as the one above, except this condition occurs near the 50% level on the 60 length Stochastic.
9. 34 Stochastic Short off 80%- same as trades above but uses a 34 length for Stochastic instead of 60 length
10. 60 DVDS Stochastic trade- similar trade to above, but uses a special normalized Stochastic indicator
11. Strap Short- a specialized Short trade that occurs when a Stochastic indicator gets overbought but price remains below a short term MA like the 20 - 30 MA
- that's a list of most of the individual small systems, that all work individually, and together
- tons of filters in place as well
I never got the e-mail.
Posted by kmktrader on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:07 pm
I never got the e-mail. Which option?
Good afternoon everyone, as you
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:09 pm
Good afternoon everyone, as you know the market has been selling off this week strongly, especially following the FOMC. The SPY Pro high probability systems have been in the safety of cash during this time. However today with the market sell off, two of the sub systems are going long via 1st entries (Strap and Trend systems). The Strap sub system has very strong statistics with a historical trades of 93.25% winners and 74 total trades since 1995. However the Strap tends to be a very quick trade, lasting on average 3 - 5 days only.
The Trend Trade has good statistics, however out of all the sub systems it has the potential for most draw down, so keep that in mind, there are quite a few situations in the past where it took 3 entries.
For trades today we are 1st entry long trades for both sub systems:
For Strap Long:
- Long 34 shares of SPY ETF ($10K)
- option: long one contract, Sept 20th 265 strike price
For Trend Long
- Long 34 shares of SPY ETF ($10K)
- option: long one contract, Oct 18th 259 strike price
Note options trade until 4:15, so you have 15 min after the close to enter them
For the ETF you have up to 4 hrs as ETF trades until 8 pm in after hrs market
enjoy the rest of your Friday and have a good weekend. I'll update the website trades later today and I will be doing the weekend newsletter
Matt
thanks Matt, out of interest,
Posted by elliotw on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:32 pm
thanks Matt, out of interest, when do options start trading PRE-market? 15 minutes?Just got options approved by TS
great job, thanks Matt.
Posted by jacob_lee_pharmd on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:20 pm
great job, thanks Matt.
this is an example of
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 03:29 pm
this is an example of how the email will look for the trades. What will change probably between now and the close will be the specific option strike prices, and of coruse if one of the systems lost the conditions only one of them may do a trade.
---------
Good afternoon everyone, as you know the market has been selling off this week strongly, especially following the FOMC. The SPY Pro high probability systems have been in the safety of cash during this time. However today with the market sell off, two of the sub systems are going long via 1st entries (Strap and Trend systems). The Strap sub system has very strong statistics with a historical trades of 93.25% winners and 74 total trades since 1995. However the Strap tends to be a very quick trade, lasting on average 3 - 5 days only.
The Trend Trade has good statistics, however out of all the sub systems it has the potential for most draw down, so keep that in mind, there are quite a few situations in the past where it took 3 entries.
For trades today we are 1st entry long trades for both sub systems:
For Strap Long:
- Long 34 shares of SPY ETF ($10K)
- option: long one contract, Sept 20th 265 strike price
For Trend Long
- Long 34 shares of SPY ETF ($10K)
- option: long one contract, Oct 18th 258 strike price
for the moment Strap has
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 03:35 pm
for the moment Strap has lost it's conditions to go long, unless we pullback more before the close. If price holds up here before the close then only one sub systems may take a trade, the Trend
Assuming this will be a
Posted by deep on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 01:46 pm
Assuming this will be a long SPY trade if it triggers ?
the system would not chase
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 01:47 pm
the system would not chase a short after the market has already pulled back like this. It shorts rallies. just like most trades buy dips except for the breakout system
Thanks...was just making sure.
Posted by deep on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 01:48 pm
Thanks...was just making sure.
can you pls post if
Posted by imelhoe on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 01:45 pm
can you pls post if spy going up or down for this play
???
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 01:46 pm
???
so this will be a
Posted by imelhoe on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 01:48 pm
so this will be a long spy trend play first entry right?
will be clear on the
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 01:49 pm
will be clear on the email. Obviously everything would be first entry. It will probably be 1st entry Trend and 1st entry Strap
this is not the time
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 01:51 pm
this is not the time of day to go into specifics on things like what each sub system looks at etc, I've very busy here and have to focus, and we need this area clear for intra day market observations as well
Will you send alerts to
Posted by steverobin on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 01:02 pm
Will you send alerts to the phone or only on the community site?
Thank you. Do you have
Posted by shecar on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 12:39 pm
Thank you. Do you have the max drawdown on the strap?
I phone and or I
Posted by winter39 on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 12:45 pm
I phone and or I tablet. Does anyone have any recommendation for an IPhone and or ITablet, for trading and or getting these messages. Thank you.
IDK man, things should display
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 12:47 pm
IDK man, things should display fine on both table and phone, I'm not sure about the auto refresh though, you can just click the Chronological button to refresh
eventually one day if our programmer gets off his butt we'll have an IOS/Android app that would be the easiest way but that's not ready yet, early beta
you can login from your phone browser
I wouldnt recommend trading on
Posted by jcm2323 on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 12:46 pm
I wouldnt recommend trading on Phone at all. Not sure about a tablet.
In regards to messages, I believe you can just go to the site and receive mobile from phone.
Thank you jcm2323
Posted by winter39 on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 01:05 pm
Thank you jcm2323
$1700 on ES over 20
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 12:44 pm
$1700 on ES over 20 years, on SPY 3K on 100K or 3%
Thank you.
Posted by shecar on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 12:44 pm
Thank you.
it's possible it may not
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 12:45 pm
it's possible it may not trigger, I've seen the conditions come and go a few times, again close is what matters