email sent, man stressful when it's on the edge like that, both systems went, strap triggered by mere pennies

    Thanks for giving the heads

    Posted by cozz101 on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:29 pm

    Thanks for giving the heads up earlier...I did take a few trades then but waited for the bulk until you gave the go ahead. I am new to after hours trading and see that even on SPY prices are slightly worse than the close but regardless, we are talking pennies and I'm glad to be in on my first trade with BPT SPY system!

    On this note, is it

    Posted by cozz101 on 3rd of Aug 2019 at 09:22 am

    On this note, is it better to buy SPY at market in the after hour session or put in a limit for the price we closed at? I put in a limit near market to purchase this time but it was higher than the close. Would it be better to put a limit in at the closing price knowing it may not fill? Just want to get this right going forward. Thanks

    here's an old description of

    Posted by matt on 4th of Aug 2019 at 01:20 pm

    here's an old description of the systems, which I will be adding back to the SPY section, also some of these need updated, but this gives a very brief description of the systems

    Longs: 

    1.   Trend long- only buys pullbacks when prices are above long term MA's along with up sloping MA's, exits when certain indicators recycle 

    2.   QE Long- A reversion to mean trade similar to the Larry Conners RSI 2 reversion to mean strategy, however uses a %R indicator instead.  Price must be over the 200 day MA for longs and below for shorts. 

    3.   Pullback long trade- similar to the Trend Long but slightly different settings 

    4.   Very strong trend pullback Long- takes long trades only when price is moving up strongly and the 20 day MA is up sloping strong and RSI 3 oversold 

    5.   Bear Long- a special type long trade that only occurs in bear markets, very stringent conditions and rare but very reliable. various filters built in here to allow it to exit quickly if need to for a small bounce only, or hold the trade for 1 - 2 months if conditions look ripe for a strong move off the lows 

    6 .  Exhaustion Long in bull market - opposite of the Exhaustion Short above, occurs when price is too stretched oversold, however price is still in a bull market. Bull market is defined generally when price is above the 200 MA and it is in a positive slope.  I have two versions of this, 1 and 2 

    7.   Exhaustion Long in bear market - similar to the one above, but occurs in bear markets so price has to be stretched MUCH further oversold 

    8.   RSI 14 long off 40%- occurs in bull markets only, when 14 RSI V's off the 40% level 

    9.   RSI 14 oversold trade- RSI is very oversold long, various filters built in here to allow it to exit quickly if need to for a small bounce, or hold the trade for 1 - 2 months if conditions look ripe for a strong move off the lows 

    10.   Strap Long- a specialized Long trade that occurs when a Stochastic indicator gets oversold but price remains above a short term MA like the 20 - 30 MA 

    11.   60 Stochastic Long off 50%- uses a 60 Length Stochastic, which is a trending Stochastic setting, the condition occurs near the 50% level of the 60 length Stochastic. 

    12.   Breakout System- This is a NEW system that I developed in early 2017 that is non-reversion to mean. It is different than the other long strategies in that it doesn't require a pullback in an uptrend to go long, instead it buys strength or a breakout condition!  In very low volatility markets like the one we've seen in 2017 that has had the lowest volatility in 100 years, the market has had very shallow pullbacks which were not deep enough for many of the reversion to mean systems to catch - the breakout system can catch these trades. This system addition is yet another diversification to the system.

    13. Stochastic Momo - a new sub systems I developed in July 2019, that uses a 60 length Stochastic trending over 80% to note momentum uptrend conditions, along with a %R indicator to buy shallow pullbacks. This system catches shallow pullbacks in a strong uptrending market where you most other reversion to mean systems will not trigger because the pullbacks are too shallow to trigger this. 

    Shorts:

    1.   QE Short - Like the one above, but for shorts, different filters etc 

    2.   Exhaustion Short #1- this trade take short trades when the market is in a very strong uptrend, but statistically is very very stretched such as over 22 days above the 8 day MA and %R over 90%, exits on a quick pullback.  I have 2 versions of this, 1 and 2 

    3.   Exhaustion Short #2- same methodology as above, however slightly different settings 

    4/5/6.   Hi, Mid, Low short- these are three type of short trades that occur primarily in bear markets when price gets overbought, I have 3 types of these

    7.   60 Stochastic Short off 80%- uses a 60 Length Stochastic, which is a trending Stochastic setting, the condition occurs near the 80% level of the 60 length Stochastic. 

    8.   60 Stochastic Short off 50%- same general logic as the one above, except this condition occurs near the 50% level on the 60 length Stochastic. 

    9.   34 Stochastic Short off 80%- same as trades above but uses a 34 length for Stochastic instead of 60 length 

    10.   60 DVDS Stochastic trade- similar trade to above, but uses a special normalized Stochastic indicator 

    11.   Strap Short- a specialized Short trade that occurs when a Stochastic indicator gets overbought but price remains below a short term MA like the 20 - 30 MA 

    - that's a list of most of the individual small systems, that all work individually, and together

    - tons of filters in place as well

    I never got the e-mail.

    Posted by kmktrader on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:07 pm

    I never got the e-mail. Which option?

    Good afternoon everyone, as you

    Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:09 pm

    Good afternoon everyone, as you know the market has been selling off this week strongly, especially following the FOMC. The SPY Pro high probability systems have been in the safety of cash during this time. However today with the market sell off, two of the sub systems are going long via 1st entries (Strap and Trend systems).  The Strap sub system has very strong statistics with a historical trades of 93.25% winners and 74 total trades since 1995. However the Strap tends to be a very quick trade, lasting on average 3 - 5 days only. 

    The Trend Trade has good statistics, however out of all the sub systems it has the potential for most draw down, so keep that in mind, there are quite a few situations in the past where it took 3 entries.  

    For trades today we are 1st entry long trades for both sub systems:

    For Strap Long:
    -  Long 34 shares of SPY ETF ($10K)
    - option: long one contract, Sept 20th 265 strike price

    For Trend Long
    -  Long 34 shares of SPY ETF ($10K)
    - option: long one contract, Oct 18th 259 strike price

    Note options trade until 4:15, so you have 15 min after the close to enter them

    For the ETF you have up to 4 hrs as ETF trades until 8 pm in after hrs market

    enjoy the rest of your Friday and have a good weekend. I'll update the website trades later today and I will be doing the weekend newsletter 

    Matt

    thanks Matt, out of interest,

    Posted by elliotw on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:32 pm

    thanks Matt, out of interest, when do options start trading PRE-market? 15 minutes?Just got options approved by TS

    great job, thanks Matt.

    Posted by jacob_lee_pharmd on 2nd of Aug 2019 at 04:20 pm

    great job, thanks Matt.

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