As we know, gold is down today while the market is up, that's to
be expected because the two have been trading opposite to one
another. see the 1st chart below.
Gold is down -$41 today, as I talked about over the weekend and
yesterday, gold was 28.2% above its 200 day MA, that was very
extreme! Now is the top in for gold? It could be but it's
hard to say. Watch the 8 day MA, a break of that would more
then likely have a top in place. In parabolic strong moves,
the 8 day MA always acts as short term support.
However as you will see below, the 60 min GLD chart had some
nice negative divergence, though for now the MACD is still quite a
bit below zero
$SPX - shows 10 min view of SPX vs DZZ
inverse gold
I don't want to answer for him but I also don't know if he is
around and will see this. He posted early about owning some
DZZ and I think for right now he is using that as a liquid hedge
against any physical instead of selling. JMHO of his earlier
comments. Ultimately I know we were looking for a retracement
due to the over-extended nature but at this point we were not
favoring a long term top being in.
Posted by dallassteve on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 04:46 pm
I'm with you. Shorted yesterday and today during the first
bear flag this AM. Not sure the top is in yet, so treading
carefully. I'm thinking of moving my stop down to 182.
Anyone else?
It won't breach today, it's at 173.31, however maybe tomorrow.
As I talked about on the weekend, the everything is connected
the market will rally when gold pulls back or vice versa gold will
pullback when the market rallies. Bonds are also down which
is to be expected, however not to the extent that we are seeing
with gold. But of course, gold was extremely hyper extended
from a technical perspective
anyway congrats on your GLD short. I have some DZZ myself.
Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 03:54 pm
I took the 8-day simple ma (not ema) and multiplied by 6.5 (=
52) and plotted that on my hourly chart. That's what's
showing 177.50 or so. Is that not the way to look at the
8-day when using the hourly? Plotting on GLD.
You have a virgin point of control around 1176
WHo knows.. this market is wacky! One trick I
use is to scale into the Puts a couple months out and sell
weekly options against them to cash flow.
mdschapiro - there is no change with the BPGDM. Bullish
Percent Gold Miners Index, remember that bullish % charts are like
a big bus vs a sports car, they don't turn on a dime, it takes a
lot of movement to get the bullish % charges to resond to
moves.
yesterday 21 components in the BPGDM were on P&F buy signals
and the same remains today. Remember you can check this in
real time from the GDX swing page, it updates once an hr.
Obviously GDX is finally getting hit today along with gold
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Comments on Gold
Posted by matt on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 12:30 pm
As we know, gold is down today while the market is up, that's to be expected because the two have been trading opposite to one another. see the 1st chart below.
Gold is down -$41 today, as I talked about over the weekend and yesterday, gold was 28.2% above its 200 day MA, that was very extreme! Now is the top in for gold? It could be but it's hard to say. Watch the 8 day MA, a break of that would more then likely have a top in place. In parabolic strong moves, the 8 day MA always acts as short term support.
However as you will see below, the 60 min GLD chart had some nice negative divergence, though for now the MACD is still quite a bit below zero
$SPX - shows 10 min view of SPX vs DZZ inverse gold
$GOLD - gold was 28.2% above it's 200 day MA
GLD - daily gold, watch the 8 day MA on this pullback
GLD - 60 min had nice negative divergence
Are you still thinking of
Posted by tomoboyle on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 05:52 pm
Are you still thinking of selling some of your physical gold Matt?
I don't want to answer
Posted by tom on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 06:01 pm
I don't want to answer for him but I also don't know if he is around and will see this. He posted early about owning some DZZ and I think for right now he is using that as a liquid hedge against any physical instead of selling. JMHO of his earlier comments. Ultimately I know we were looking for a retracement due to the over-extended nature but at this point we were not favoring a long term top being in.
Thanks Tom!
Posted by tomoboyle on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 06:18 pm
Thanks Tom!
currently the 8-day ma is
Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 02:41 pm
currently the 8-day ma is at 177.50. Could breach today.... I'm short near today's high w/ a stop above it.
short GLD
Posted by dallassteve on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 04:46 pm
I'm with you. Shorted yesterday and today during the first bear flag this AM. Not sure the top is in yet, so treading carefully. I'm thinking of moving my stop down to 182. Anyone else?
It won't breach today, it's
Posted by matt on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 03:32 pm
It won't breach today, it's at 173.31, however maybe tomorrow. As I talked about on the weekend, the everything is connected the market will rally when gold pulls back or vice versa gold will pullback when the market rallies. Bonds are also down which is to be expected, however not to the extent that we are seeing with gold. But of course, gold was extremely hyper extended from a technical perspective
anyway congrats on your GLD short. I have some DZZ myself.
I took the 8-day simple
Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 03:54 pm
I took the 8-day simple ma (not ema) and multiplied by 6.5 (= 52) and plotted that on my hourly chart. That's what's showing 177.50 or so. Is that not the way to look at the 8-day when using the hourly? Plotting on GLD.
keep the wife out of it!
Posted by zach06 on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 03:34 pm
The wife told me to buy gold yesterday night... and I told her it is time to short it , not buy it...... Women just love that gold and diamonds.
Same thing happened to me
Posted by darnelds on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 06:04 pm
Same thing happened to me 2 nights ago. Wife mentioned buying gold. First time ever. And gold is all over the local news the last 3-4 nights.
wives?
Posted by mmunford on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 03:44 pm
mine said the same thing? I am thinking SDS at the end of the day though...any comments?
tomorrow should be a chop day
Posted by zach06 on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 03:53 pm
You have a virgin point of control around 1176 WHo knows.. this market is wacky! One trick I use is to scale into the Puts a couple months out and sell weekly options against them to cash flow.
that 1176 is /es futures..not cash sorry
Posted by zach06 on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 04:11 pm
gdx
Posted by mdschapiro on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 12:46 pm
How is this reversal in GDX affecting the GMBP ?
mdschapiro - there is no
Posted by matt on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 12:55 pm
mdschapiro - there is no change with the BPGDM. Bullish Percent Gold Miners Index, remember that bullish % charts are like a big bus vs a sports car, they don't turn on a dime, it takes a lot of movement to get the bullish % charges to resond to moves.
yesterday 21 components in the BPGDM were on P&F buy signals and the same remains today. Remember you can check this in real time from the GDX swing page, it updates once an hr.
Obviously GDX is finally getting hit today along with gold