You are absolutely right, there are many young cannons out there trying to outsmart each other, however knowing which way gravity pulls may be helpful for the little guy, and in the end they can not make water flow uphill.

Adding to your thinking: I follow cycles and the window for a trading cycle bottom was May 21-June 8, and in my mind that is the only reason we rallied, we found the bottom during that window and here we go. The intermediate cycle already bottomed and topped in a left translated way and is next expected to bottom in the Aug/Sep time frame, also the seasonal cycle (about 1 year in duration) is also suppossed to bottom around that time frame. From the point of view of cycles the present trading cycle is very likely to fail to make a new high and also top in a left translated manner, if that happens, then we should be looking at a steep decline into the intermediate and seasonal cycles. If Bernanke is going to make QE3, is very likely he will wait until these cycles bottom to do it to make sure he takes credit for the bounce that will come anyway in the Sep/Nov timeframe just in time for the USA election. The election in Greece may well be the excuse everybody will use for this coming trading cycle to top.

Everybody is still very bullish while economic conditions continue to deteriorate, Europe in recesion, South America just hit the wall, and so forth, and usually the stock indices are the last ones to show the reality of the situation.

Looking at GDX during the big fall of 2008, it shows a virulent 2 week rally after which it dropped like a rock, and now I see a 2 week rally into resistance, and everybody is thinking we are going to the moon. The fact that Gold just made a 9 year cycle top is never going to be digested by the gold bugs out there.

So everybody be careful out there.

It seems we have the 60 Sto over 80 all day, if continues, will give us a trade for tomorrow at the open.

2014 if true, is an eternity in Argentina...

Hi there, just some inside info from Argentina (I am from there):

They will not let anybody pay dividends outside the country and they will default in their sovereign debt sometime next year. Capital controls are intensifying and they really do not give a damn about foreing investment. So please be careful.

If it forms that inverse H&S it would target the big declining multimonth trendline at around $48/47.-.

Dollar should decline or ease over the next 2 weeks (trading cycle) helping gold and gold stocks. It may turn out to be a great shorting opportunity if it gets there.

Yes, it may indicate either that the powers to be that are used to manipulate opex to their advantage have a lot of internal weakness or that they quietly own the puts as part of their preparation for a deflation event.

I remember years ago once they moved the SPX 40 points up in the last hour of trading... after they scared me of my long.

Thanks Matt. I see everybody trying to buy the 50% retrace with 2 touches so far including this morning and if the 3rd touch does not hold then the 61% retrace at around $35.- seems a good place where a lasting bounce could take place.

Matt: I was wondering what the results are if you remove the profit target out of the system as it really works as a trailing stop. So far I stayed short using options on DUST and moving strikes down waiting for a buy signal and is paying off. Thanks.

Steve: SPY opex max pain for next week is $140.- What do you think the possibilities are of bouncing up to there ? Lately monday/tuesday of opex week were bullish. Thanks.

I used to be short the Reits in 2007 to 2008 to just before they crashed, so I missed the collapse. Just think about it, what is different now to justify the current price versus the situation when it was in the $20.-. So it seems a matter of time, first to give the ghost in a deflation event are commodities and commodities related stocks, then financials and last the general indexes and a few stocks deemed "safe".

CFX had earnings this morning, beat by 2 cents, everything else in line, it seem they did not like it as the stock is down 5%. I decided to keep the short and it looks good.

Another issue to consider with the gold miners is that the price action since the top last year may indicate continuos liquidation by the mutual funds that normally hold this stocks in anticipation of a deflation event. Every gold bug is looking at the gold/hui ration and is thinking the stocks will cach up without even considering that the price of gold could come down and make the ratio go up also. Since the first drop the bounces are getting smaller and that may indicate that they are using the rallies to sell and lately it seems they are in a hurry to sell. Technically we are under the 38% retracement and it seems the 61% retracement offers some significant support, while the neck of that huge top is around $49 now and the longer we stay under it, the stronger the resistance will be if we get there. All this just to keep all options open.

It seems the market is going to wait for the Press meeting.

SPX 60 period Stoch could be under 20 all day today, providing us with another signal for tomorrow, FED day,  usually rallying into the announcement.

Great job in the video, no problems here with it.

Lets not get greedy, 10 to 15 winners a year on one stock is just marvelous, specially when so far we got no losers.

Good job. It looks like a winner system already, of the 7, 5 are gaps between 4 and 15 points and the other 2 trended around 10 points on the first move. Now it would be nice to find a common denominator for exit. Thanks.

You could make a case for counting that chart as 1) the first move down from the top, then an a-b-c flat 2), and now 3) in progress.

A look at the 4 year daily shows a consolidation under/after broken support and around the 38% retracement, if it loses the 38% no real support until the low 40's. To keep in mind just in case.