There hasn't been an update on the SPY swing system in a
while, however here's a chart of the trades for this year 2010.
As you can see it went long on Aug 23rd and sold last week
Nov 16, so it was long for almost 3 months. It also caught
very nice shorts and longs from May - July. Also it caught
the long from early Feb and held until late April. The only
losing trade this year was the long in Jan at the beginning of the
chart. Otherwise as far as mechanical systems goes, this is
the best swing one I've ever seen personally for swing trades, does
about 20 trades a year or so, therefore money can compound quickly.
The system has no losing years. The system attempts to
short oversold and buy overbought conditions which is the opposite
of what a MA system or indicator would do.
We will NOT be selling the code for any amount of money, unless
you want to offer 6 digits LOL. We'll probably only offer 6
month or 1 year subscriptions to the system, i.e. 1 month
memberships do not make sense because sometimes the system will not
do a trade for a month and yes the system does have a losing trade
every now and then. Therefore I don't want people subscribing
to the system for a month, then bitching and wanting a refund
because the system didn't do a trade for a month or had a bad
trade, which is just a normal part of the system. In order to
play a system like this, you have to trade it for months, that's
why I will only offer 6 month or year memberships.
System is almost 87% profitable with a profit factor of nearly
13 going back to 1994
This is a professional system, generally only hedgefunds or
professional trades would have access to it and would pay 1000's or
millions of dollars for it. That is why the system will not
be given away, it is too valuable
when will it be released? I don't know yet so don't ask,
maybe in Dec sometime.
Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 10:57 pm
To date, in 2010 the system when compounded has a return of
52.9% for SPY. Using SSO (long and short) it has a compounded
return of 137.5%. Not too shabby.
Posted by stevedfw on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 11:31 pm
Since this system holds some positions for several weeks, might
it be best to short the contrary 2x fund (SSO, SDS) to keep from
the 2x fund degrading over time? Any thoughts on
this?
I don't see degradation of SDS or SSO as an issue, I've looked
at the results and it was basically non-existent for the time
frame's held. You can also do Profunds 2x funds
instead.
hutrader - your selection GOOD does indeed look like a bull flag
pattern. Should it resolve upwards, then the target would be
derived by adding the length of the pole to the breakout level
(conservatively 2/2.5 points).
I don't understand, Steve. Why would shorting a contrary
2x ETF be less subject to degradation than simply going long a 2x
ETF? I thought it was 2 and 3x ETFs that were the problem,
not whether you went long or short with them.
I know that you've mentioned this in the past, but could you
remind us of the performance statistics of the system, specifically
its annualized returns?
Matt published some PRELIMINARY stats on 28 September - look
under 'SPY System' and his name on that date in the search
function. From his screen grabs then and now, looks to me like the
updated system takes less trades.
p.s. Screen grabs can found be in his post of 7 October - I have
these posts favourited for easy reference...
Thanks. It would be interesting to see what the stats look
like now, given that, as you say, this version of the systems
appears to take fewer trades than earlier versions.s
Posted by magann14 on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 05:03 pm
Matt and Steve...keep up the good work. I have really
enjoyed my membership and will gladly pay for the SPY swing
system. The performance should pay for the service many times
over.
SPY swing system examples/comments
Posted by matt on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 04:06 pm
There hasn't been an update on the SPY swing system in a while, however here's a chart of the trades for this year 2010. As you can see it went long on Aug 23rd and sold last week Nov 16, so it was long for almost 3 months. It also caught very nice shorts and longs from May - July. Also it caught the long from early Feb and held until late April. The only losing trade this year was the long in Jan at the beginning of the chart. Otherwise as far as mechanical systems goes, this is the best swing one I've ever seen personally for swing trades, does about 20 trades a year or so, therefore money can compound quickly. The system has no losing years. The system attempts to short oversold and buy overbought conditions which is the opposite of what a MA system or indicator would do.
We will NOT be selling the code for any amount of money, unless you want to offer 6 digits LOL. We'll probably only offer 6 month or 1 year subscriptions to the system, i.e. 1 month memberships do not make sense because sometimes the system will not do a trade for a month and yes the system does have a losing trade every now and then. Therefore I don't want people subscribing to the system for a month, then bitching and wanting a refund because the system didn't do a trade for a month or had a bad trade, which is just a normal part of the system. In order to play a system like this, you have to trade it for months, that's why I will only offer 6 month or year memberships.
System is almost 87% profitable with a profit factor of nearly 13 going back to 1994
This is a professional system, generally only hedgefunds or professional trades would have access to it and would pay 1000's or millions of dollars for it. That is why the system will not be given away, it is too valuable
when will it be released? I don't know yet so don't ask, maybe in Dec sometime.
New SPY swing system
Posted by rap555 on 24th of Nov 2010 at 12:16 pm
Matt - will this be a separate subscription with it's own fee or will it be included as part of the BPT subscription?
i think it is separate fee.
Posted by shahsamir on 24th of Nov 2010 at 12:21 pm
To date, in 2010 the
Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 10:57 pm
To date, in 2010 the system when compounded has a return of 52.9% for SPY. Using SSO (long and short) it has a compounded return of 137.5%. Not too shabby.
Since this system holds some
Posted by stevedfw on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 11:31 pm
Since this system holds some positions for several weeks, might it be best to short the contrary 2x fund (SSO, SDS) to keep from the 2x fund degrading over time? Any thoughts on this?
I don't see degradation of
Posted by matt on 24th of Nov 2010 at 01:25 am
I don't see degradation of SDS or SSO as an issue, I've looked at the results and it was basically non-existent for the time frame's held. You can also do Profunds 2x funds instead.
Any thoughts on GOOD? Bullflag?
Posted by hutrader on 24th of Nov 2010 at 07:08 am
I was wondering if any of you have something to say about GOOD?
It looks to me like some sort of bullflag formation. What would be the price target in case of a breakout?
GOOD
Posted by steve on 24th of Nov 2010 at 07:59 am
hutrader - your selection GOOD does indeed look like a bull flag pattern. Should it resolve upwards, then the target would be derived by adding the length of the pole to the breakout level (conservatively 2/2.5 points).
I don't understand, Steve. Why
Posted by algyros on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 11:58 pm
I don't understand, Steve. Why would shorting a contrary 2x ETF be less subject to degradation than simply going long a 2x ETF? I thought it was 2 and 3x ETFs that were the problem, not whether you went long or short with them.
Look up theta burn.
Posted by steveo on 24th of Nov 2010 at 12:52 am
Look up theta burn.
That's affirmative or simply short
Posted by steve on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 11:41 pm
That's affirmative or simply short SPY when prompted to position short. The problem only appears while holding over a longer time period.
I know that you've mentioned
Posted by algyros on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 05:44 pm
I know that you've mentioned this in the past, but could you remind us of the performance statistics of the system, specifically its annualized returns?
Matt's SPY system stats
Posted by philosoraptor on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 05:54 pm
Matt published some PRELIMINARY stats on 28 September - look under 'SPY System' and his name on that date in the search function. From his screen grabs then and now, looks to me like the updated system takes less trades.
p.s. Screen grabs can found be in his post of 7 October - I have these posts favourited for easy reference...
Thanks. It would be interesting
Posted by algyros on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 06:13 pm
Thanks. It would be interesting to see what the stats look like now, given that, as you say, this version of the systems appears to take fewer trades than earlier versions.s
Good Job
Posted by magann14 on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 05:03 pm
Matt and Steve...keep up the good work. I have really enjoyed my membership and will gladly pay for the SPY swing system. The performance should pay for the service many times over.
CAN YOU GET A SUBSCRIPTION
Posted by RM686 on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 04:38 pm
CAN YOU GET A SUBSCRIPTION TO THIS AND CANCEL YOUR REGULAR BPT SUBSCRIPTION OR DO YOU HAVE TO HAVE BOTH.
LOL NO! the system was
Posted by matt on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 04:49 pm
LOL NO! the system was not made to cannibalize the BPT membership, which is already dirt cheap anyway and has been the same price since 2005
please don't raise the price
Posted by rikkwan on 23rd of Nov 2010 at 04:58 pm
please don't raise the price of BPT- I'm still a relatively new subscriber- yes BPT is worth every penny