As I've mentioned before, the NASI 3 EMA chart is pretty good at
keeping you in intermediate trends. It's not perfect, but
it's pretty good on its own.
Here's a chart of the NASI 3 EMA (you can find this indicator in
the 'Long Term Tools' section.
Also here's a table where I took the price of the Nasdaq and the
ETF, QLD at the buy and sell signals. As you can see, the
gains in the QLD ETF are very nice with small losers.
By trading QLD, the current long from Sept 2nd would be up 24.7%
with three other large trades this year at 16.4% and 19.9% and
9.6%. Only 2 losers, one at -3.3% and one at -0.3%.
Anyway not bad. I didn't have time to add more history, I
will do so later. I think if you combined it with other
indicators or systems you could improve it.
Posted by biketastic on 15th of Oct 2010 at 08:59 am
I really like the look of these intermediate systems - QLD, GDX
and SPY (soon).
Has anyone looked into how these could be applied to a SIPP
(Self Invested Personal Pension) trading in sterling?
Some constraints obviously apply such as leveraged funds not
being allowed and it not being possible to short. However x1
long and short etfs are permissible.
I am able to trade in dollars but would like a balance of dollar
and sterling based funds.
Posted by gdstacey on 15th of Oct 2010 at 12:37 pm
Mike
I'm currently using Multicharts with Interactive Brokers
(non SIPP) and with their UK data feed I can trade
mechanical systems in sterling and ETF's listed on LSE such
as ISF. With the right .ela etc code you should be
able to do the long/long system (e.g. long ISF, long
XUKS)
I've noticed that IB are now partnering up with some
UK SIPP providers and in theory you might be able to do the
above in such an account but I haven't checked into this as
yet.
- market goes up, dollar goes down, long trade profit in
sterling suffers
- market goes down, dollar goes up, short trade profit in
sterling is a win-win
The solution? Go short the market in dollar ETFs, go long the
market in this:
(excerpt from last week's issue of MoneyWeek)
Plenty of articles online mention these new currency hedged
S&P500 ETFs:
Posted by frtaylor on 15th of Oct 2010 at 08:52 am
The projected compound annual rate of return for QLD is
168%, based on those ten trades. Really good; not quite as
good as the GDX system, which has a compound rate of 194%.
Thanks, Matt. What indicators would you recommend in
improving the system? Also, would you recommend that one
keeps his or her powder dry and wait for a reversal in the signal
(L to S) before jumping in?
Very interesting, Matt. If you have time, it would be nice
to see what the "system" has done over longer time frames. At
any rate, thanks for the data.
NASI 3 EMA system using QLD
Posted by matt on 14th of Oct 2010 at 11:15 pm
As I've mentioned before, the NASI 3 EMA chart is pretty good at keeping you in intermediate trends. It's not perfect, but it's pretty good on its own.
Here's a chart of the NASI 3 EMA (you can find this indicator in the 'Long Term Tools' section.
Also here's a table where I took the price of the Nasdaq and the ETF, QLD at the buy and sell signals. As you can see, the gains in the QLD ETF are very nice with small losers.
By trading QLD, the current long from Sept 2nd would be up 24.7% with three other large trades this year at 16.4% and 19.9% and 9.6%. Only 2 losers, one at -3.3% and one at -0.3%. Anyway not bad. I didn't have time to add more history, I will do so later. I think if you combined it with other indicators or systems you could improve it.
Calling all Brits........
Posted by biketastic on 15th of Oct 2010 at 08:59 am
I really like the look of these intermediate systems - QLD, GDX and SPY (soon).
Has anyone looked into how these could be applied to a SIPP (Self Invested Personal Pension) trading in sterling?
Some constraints obviously apply such as leveraged funds not being allowed and it not being possible to short. However x1 long and short etfs are permissible.
I am able to trade in dollars but would like a balance of dollar and sterling based funds.
Any inputs on this greatly appreciated.
SIPP/UK systems
Posted by gdstacey on 15th of Oct 2010 at 12:37 pm
Mike
I'm currently using Multicharts with Interactive Brokers (non SIPP) and with their UK data feed I can trade mechanical systems in sterling and ETF's listed on LSE such as ISF. With the right .ela etc code you should be able to do the long/long system (e.g. long ISF, long XUKS)
I've noticed that IB are now partnering up with some UK SIPP providers and in theory you might be able to do the above in such an account but I haven't checked into this as yet.
Regards
Graeme
Title: Mike, I saw this
Posted by philosoraptor on 15th of Oct 2010 at 10:08 am
- market goes up, dollar goes down, long trade profit in sterling suffers
- market goes down, dollar goes up, short trade profit in sterling is a win-win
The solution? Go short the market in dollar ETFs, go long the market in this:
(excerpt from last week's issue of MoneyWeek)
Plenty of articles online mention these new currency hedged S&P500 ETFs:
http://www.etfexpress.com/2010/10/04/63043/ishares-launches-currency-hedged-equity-etfs-europe
Note: I have done no further research, nor am I trading these vehicles.
p.s. they're Ireland domiciled ETFs, so no stamp duty right?
Title: Yep Terrific stuff. Thanks, Matt. Keep
Posted by brophy on 15th of Oct 2010 at 08:58 am
Terrific stuff. Thanks, Matt.
Keep up all your excellent and hard work. Greatly appreciated!
compound annual return
Posted by frtaylor on 15th of Oct 2010 at 08:52 am
The projected compound annual rate of return for QLD is 168%, based on those ten trades. Really good; not quite as good as the GDX system, which has a compound rate of 194%.
Title: NASI Indicators and timing Thanks,
Posted by billnew52 on 15th of Oct 2010 at 08:41 am
Thanks, Matt. What indicators would you recommend in improving the system? Also, would you recommend that one keeps his or her powder dry and wait for a reversal in the signal (L to S) before jumping in?
Very interesting, Matt. If you
Posted by algyros on 14th of Oct 2010 at 11:29 pm
Very interesting, Matt. If you have time, it would be nice to see what the "system" has done over longer time frames. At any rate, thanks for the data.
NASI
Posted by Michael on 14th of Oct 2010 at 11:26 pm
wow, matt -- that's amazing. What a starting point. Thanks for posting it