I remember his breakdown on CNBC very well. Was rambling on
about "car people" back when GM was on the verge of bankrupcy. It
was bizarre, and his co-workers did not know how to handle his
answers.
Nobody else would have had the stones to take the unbelievable
and unprecedented global actions he took. If not for him, my 401k
would be toast, and probably my job too. Sure, there may be
inflation someday, but I'll take that as long as I have my job and
401k intact.
Big difference is the NASD P/E ratio was sky high back then
while AAPL is just moving to the norm for its earnings (and still
low for its growth rate).
I read Felix Zulauf's opinions whenever I can. A few months ago,
he said that the rally might persist throughout the 1st quarter,
but crash in the middle of the year, and he was short. The
interviewer asked what would change his mind and make him cover his
shorts - he responded "S&P500 closing above 1370". Guess he's
covered by now.
Thanks for posting that link! It explains why I still cannot
reconcile my broker's reported wash sale allowances after working
on it for 2 weekends. I was shortchanged significantly by the
way my broker reported my losses and wash sales. They did not even
warn me of this problem.
AAPL to $1000? I remember in 2000 when QCOM jumped by $150 in 1
day when an analyst issued a $1000 price target. That was the
blowoff high for QCOM, the tech bubble, and my net worth.
Same here! I have bought slightly OTM Puts on FXE several times
in past year - all expired worthless as the Euro always turns up
when I short it via Puts.
Sometimes I feel the blog alone is worth the price of admission.
But, surprisingly, not for trade setups, as I am not a day trader.
Rather, I like the total breadth of topics, and I most appreciate
comments and links pertaining to fundamental analysis,
general market and economic environment, etc. The "Off Topic"
section is useless, IMO, since those posts do not show up
under the main blog when I select "View All", and I never go
out and explicitly select the Off Topic section. I find
some true Off Topic comments interesting, and I just skip over
those that are not interesting. But, some people are too sensitive
and cannot handle the Off Topic comments or the wasted time,
apparently. Personally, I prefer having all the comments readily
avail on the main blog, and I will use my adult mind to decide
which comments to read and my adult maturity to refrain from
emotional attacks.
This recent meltup on "less bad" news reminds me of the
relentless upward climbing of the "Wall of Worry" after the
March 2009 bottom. The argument back then was things were
"less bad" or getting worse at a slower pace (2nd derivative turned
positive). Here are some fundamentals supporting this again
now:
Is this time different? I know we are not supposed to claim
that. But, we are seeing unprecedented interest rate
easing, QE, and liquidity flooding on a global basis.
Even though we see occasional deflationary dips, we see them
countered with reflationary liquidity each time. So, maybe this
secular Bear will not look like the others cited in the Pring
report. Just something to consider.
This premium is ridiculous. His PHYS gold fund was once also
above 30% premium and fell back to 3%. There is no rationale for
this other than temporary emotion. There are other options for
investing in the price of silver w/o risking an additional 30% loss
due to excessive premium.
By coincidence, IBD switched from "Market in Correction"
(starting Nov 17) to "Uptrend Confirmed" just last night. Yet,
O'Neil may see yesterday's move as a good short opportunity.
Is it too late to short something related to China hedge fund
holdings? It seems the indices related to China are already at
multi-year lows. Any suggestions? Thanks!
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Jeff Mackie
The " nutty professor " ( Charles Nenner ) is ...
Posted by sethbru on 29th of Mar 2012 at 01:56 pm
I remember his breakdown on CNBC very well. Was rambling on about "car people" back when GM was on the verge of bankrupcy. It was bizarre, and his co-workers did not know how to handle his answers.
He saved my 401k
The Bernanke!!!!!
Posted by sethbru on 23rd of Mar 2012 at 07:00 pm
Nobody else would have had the stones to take the unbelievable and unprecedented global actions he took. If not for him, my 401k would be toast, and probably my job too. Sure, there may be inflation someday, but I'll take that as long as I have my job and 401k intact.
Yea, I love my iPad,
AAPL /PCLN
Posted by sethbru on 23rd of Mar 2012 at 04:30 pm
Yea, I love my iPad, but the lack of Flash is a huge impediment. I complained to Apple about it - they did not respond.
Big difference is the NASD
Clear pattern. Chart says it all. Only a question of when...
Posted by sethbru on 14th of Mar 2012 at 05:07 pm
Big difference is the NASD P/E ratio was sky high back then while AAPL is just moving to the norm for its earnings (and still low for its growth rate).
Feels like a blowoff top,
Top
Posted by sethbru on 13th of Mar 2012 at 05:07 pm
Feels like a blowoff top, but my gut feel is usually wrong.
Felix Zulauf
Posted by sethbru on 13th of Mar 2012 at 04:56 pm
I read Felix Zulauf's opinions whenever I can. A few months ago, he said that the rally might persist throughout the 1st quarter, but crash in the middle of the year, and he was short. The interviewer asked what would change his mind and make him cover his shorts - he responded "S&P500 closing above 1370". Guess he's covered by now.
GreenTraderTax Blog
GreenTrader Weblog GreenTraderTax & GreenTraderFunds Big Concerns with Botched 1099-Bs and Discrepancies on Form 8949
Posted by sethbru on 13th of Mar 2012 at 12:34 am
Thanks for posting that link! It explains why I still cannot reconcile my broker's reported wash sale allowances after working on it for 2 weekends. I was shortchanged significantly by the way my broker reported my losses and wash sales. They did not even warn me of this problem.
zach06, Nice chart on the
Money flow by Tick Vs. SP500 index
Posted by sethbru on 7th of Mar 2012 at 10:39 pm
zach06, Nice chart on the MF. Where do you get this info?
AAPL to $1000? I remember
Why stock did not sell off
Posted by sethbru on 29th of Feb 2012 at 02:45 pm
AAPL to $1000? I remember in 2000 when QCOM jumped by $150 in 1 day when an analyst issued a $1000 price target. That was the blowoff high for QCOM, the tech bubble, and my net worth.
But but Dennis Gartman said
big reversal in GDX and gold, and silver has an ...
Posted by sethbru on 29th of Feb 2012 at 11:58 am
But but Dennis Gartman said to buy Gold yesterday on" Fast Money"
Gas vs SPX
unleaded gas (red) versus SPX grey
Posted by sethbru on 26th of Feb 2012 at 10:12 pm
You sure about that data? I don't recall gas selling under a buck at the end of 2008.
1 solid rule
1 solid rule
Posted by sethbru on 15th of Feb 2012 at 02:27 pm
Same here! I have bought slightly OTM Puts on FXE several times in past year - all expired worthless as the Euro always turns up when I short it via Puts.
Matt's reply re: "Gurus calling top"
GURUS
Posted by sethbru on 30th of Jan 2012 at 03:15 am
Matt, This is my favorite type of commentary, as I am mostly a 401k investor looking for "big picture" longer term trends. Thanks for posting!
Blog Opinion
Romney made $21.5 million last year....
Posted by sethbru on 24th of Jan 2012 at 01:03 pm
Sometimes I feel the blog alone is worth the price of admission. But, surprisingly, not for trade setups, as I am not a day trader. Rather, I like the total breadth of topics, and I most appreciate comments and links pertaining to fundamental analysis, general market and economic environment, etc. The "Off Topic" section is useless, IMO, since those posts do not show up under the main blog when I select "View All", and I never go out and explicitly select the Off Topic section. I find some true Off Topic comments interesting, and I just skip over those that are not interesting. But, some people are too sensitive and cannot handle the Off Topic comments or the wasted time, apparently. Personally, I prefer having all the comments readily avail on the main blog, and I will use my adult mind to decide which comments to read and my adult maturity to refrain from emotional attacks.
off topic
Feels Like 2009 Again - "2nd Derivative" Trade Points Up
Posted by sethbru on 19th of Jan 2012 at 03:15 am
This recent meltup on "less bad" news reminds me of the relentless upward climbing of the "Wall of Worry" after the March 2009 bottom. The argument back then was things were "less bad" or getting worse at a slower pace (2nd derivative turned positive). Here are some fundamentals supporting this again now:
LIBOR has finally stopped rising: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=US0001M:IND
HARPEX (better at trending than BDI) has bottomed: http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexVP.do
Bank loans (especially Commercial & Industrial - see 2nd graph) steadily rising: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page20.pdf
Chart-wise, it seems we had a Golden Cross recently, and the "1961 Mechanical System" (long-term trend) signalled UP recently.
Liquidity-wise, we have the Fed and ECB easing with hints of more QE, and now China looks ready to ease again.
Perhaps "Muddle through" is working.
Secular Bear Markets
Good article on Secular bull/bear markets
Posted by sethbru on 18th of Jan 2012 at 12:03 pm
Is this time different? I know we are not supposed to claim that. But, we are seeing unprecedented interest rate easing, QE, and liquidity flooding on a global basis. Even though we see occasional deflationary dips, we see them countered with reflationary liquidity each time. So, maybe this secular Bear will not look like the others cited in the Pring report. Just something to consider.
Sprott Silver
Sprott Silver Trust now 34.22% Premium...
Posted by sethbru on 10th of Jan 2012 at 09:48 am
This premium is ridiculous. His PHYS gold fund was once also above 30% premium and fell back to 3%. There is no rationale for this other than temporary emotion. There are other options for investing in the price of silver w/o risking an additional 30% loss due to excessive premium.
Migraine
Migraine
Posted by sethbru on 30th of Dec 2011 at 04:03 pm
Matt,
I have found that Excedrin Migraine tablets work miracles for my migraines.
O'Neil & IBD
WILLIAM J O'NEIL and the pattern of SPX
Posted by sethbru on 21st of Dec 2011 at 09:36 am
By coincidence, IBD switched from "Market in Correction" (starting Nov 17) to "Uptrend Confirmed" just last night. Yet, O'Neil may see yesterday's move as a good short opportunity.
Hedge fund alarm...China
"Hedge fund alarm bells are ringing over China" FT, pg 23
Posted by sethbru on 20th of Dec 2011 at 02:42 am
Is it too late to short something related to China hedge fund holdings? It seems the indices related to China are already at multi-year lows. Any suggestions? Thanks!