I've done many reports about secular bull and bear markets and
how they behave. in 2000 after the tech bubble topped, it became
clear to me that the market had ended a secular bull market (1982 -
2000) and has just began a new secular bear market that would last
for many years well past 2010 into the teens.
I can dig out my old reports from 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008,
however this article does a great job at explaining how they work
and behave.
The problem with traditional brokers and the buy/hold mentality
is that it works great in secular bull markets, but not in secular
bear markets. We only live so long and you have be aware of
what long term cycle you are in. They show all these long
term stats about how the market is up X % over 80 years etc,
however the market stair steps higher and does not go in a straight
line. Secular bull markets are the steps up, while secular
bear markets are the sideways steps to the stairs. They
average all this together and show a long term uptrend, but what
they fail to tell you is that if you buy and hold in a secular
bear, your money is deal for 15 - 18 years.
Is this time different? I know we are not supposed to claim
that. But, we are seeing unprecedented interest rate
easing, QE, and liquidity flooding on a global basis.
Even though we see occasional deflationary dips, we see them
countered with reflationary liquidity each time. So, maybe this
secular Bear will not look like the others cited in the Pring
report. Just something to consider.
Good article on Secular bull/bear markets
Posted by matt on 17th of Jan 2012 at 08:39 pm
I've done many reports about secular bull and bear markets and how they behave. in 2000 after the tech bubble topped, it became clear to me that the market had ended a secular bull market (1982 - 2000) and has just began a new secular bear market that would last for many years well past 2010 into the teens.
I can dig out my old reports from 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, however this article does a great job at explaining how they work and behave.
The problem with traditional brokers and the buy/hold mentality is that it works great in secular bull markets, but not in secular bear markets. We only live so long and you have be aware of what long term cycle you are in. They show all these long term stats about how the market is up X % over 80 years etc, however the market stair steps higher and does not go in a straight line. Secular bull markets are the steps up, while secular bear markets are the sideways steps to the stairs. They average all this together and show a long term uptrend, but what they fail to tell you is that if you buy and hold in a secular bear, your money is deal for 15 - 18 years.
anyway here's that report about how they behave
http://pring.com/assets/pdfs/lostdecade.pdf
Secular Bear Markets
Posted by sethbru on 18th of Jan 2012 at 12:03 pm
Is this time different? I know we are not supposed to claim that. But, we are seeing unprecedented interest rate easing, QE, and liquidity flooding on a global basis. Even though we see occasional deflationary dips, we see them countered with reflationary liquidity each time. So, maybe this secular Bear will not look like the others cited in the Pring report. Just something to consider.
interesting how a lot of
Posted by matt on 17th of Jan 2012 at 10:11 pm
interesting how a lot of market cycles come in at near the same time around early 2013, RP pointed that out, both the 144 and 377 fib cycles