I've seen a lot of charts comparing the recent market patterns
to prior market patterns whose next major leg was down (i.e. 1909,
1938, 2008, etc.) as an attempt to forecast the next big move.
Here's a rare comparison where the next major leg is up:
I don't know that ratio, but LIBOR has been rising almost every
day for the past few months (I check daily), thus confirming credit
deterioration in Europe.
His next post will claim his systems were long before the huge
move up today. Amazing how this guy, who expects $2 silver and a
global collapse any day now (every day the same warning) always
claims to be long on up days.
RP, I am the person who pointed out a while back that the HARPEX
is better than the BDI for tracking global economic activity, so I
am pleased to see that you have noted the correlation. I agree that
the divergence is alarming, and I expect it portends an
eventual market downturn. I have always been focused on
fundamental analysis and am not a day-trader, so I come here to
learn why fundamentals do not cause the market reaction that I
expect. As you noted, the fundamentals do matter in the long run,
but the short-term is more affected by technicals (which I learn
about here) and news (which we cannot predict).
So, I do expect the negative fundamentals will eventually play
out, but who knows when. I have wasted a lot of $$ buying
OTM Puts based upon negative fundamentals which play out after
my Puts expire worthless.
In addition to tracking the HARPEX on a regular basis, I watch
the following:
Bearish comments on this board (and others) reminds me of 2009
when nobody believed in the rally off the March '09 low. Back then,
I went massively short and suffered my biggest losses since the
Tech bubble crash since 2009 rose on the backs of shorts who kept
adding more as each new resistance level was touched. I also read
shorts are now at highest levels since March 2009, thus supporting
my current belief. Be careful out there.
His prior 2 calls were whipsaw losses. His last short call (at
the close on Friday) is currently another whipsaw where it started
out very profitable, but has now fallen to a loss since he does not
take profits quickly enough (in this case). So, you are suggesting
to average down on a currently losing trade. If this were Matt's
SPY multi-entry scale with proven history, I might average down,
but I am losing faith in Marco's system.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Historical Precedent May be Bullish
Posted by sethbru on 12th of Dec 2011 at 01:33 am
I've seen a lot of charts comparing the recent market patterns to prior market patterns whose next major leg was down (i.e. 1909, 1938, 2008, etc.) as an attempt to forecast the next big move. Here's a rare comparison where the next major leg is up:
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/what_debt_default_means_for_the_stock_market/
EU Credit Markets
$ONE:$TED ratio; down again
Posted by sethbru on 6th of Dec 2011 at 01:00 am
kalinm,
I don't know that ratio, but LIBOR has been rising almost every day for the past few months (I check daily), thus confirming credit deterioration in Europe.
Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=US0001M:IND
re: true problem - Occupy Movements
No Wonder COnsumer Confidence is so high NO ONE IS PAYING THEIR MORTGAGE!
Posted by sethbru on 1st of Dec 2011 at 01:56 pm
This is great: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAOrT0OcHh0&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Wrong Again - m3financial
Posted by sethbru on 30th of Nov 2011 at 06:56 pm
His next post will claim his systems were long before the huge move up today. Amazing how this guy, who expects $2 silver and a global collapse any day now (every day the same warning) always claims to be long on up days.
Marco timing calls
marco
Posted by sethbru on 17th of Nov 2011 at 06:00 pm
I've been tracking his calls for past few months. Latest summary:
Go short after close 9-30-11 at QQQ=52.49
Go to cash after close 10-7-11 at QQQ=54.07 (lost 3% on short)
Go Long after close 10-11-11 at QQQ=56.32
Flip to short at close 11-17-11 at QQQ=55.82 (lost 1% on long)
"Bear goggles"
weekly renko.....
Posted by sethbru on 12th of Nov 2011 at 04:20 pm
"Bear goggles" - that's a good one! Everytime I put on Bear goggles, bad stuff happens to me.
Insult Comic Dog Visits OWS - Humor
Posted by sethbru on 6th of Nov 2011 at 09:22 pm
This is funny! Link: http://teamcoco.com/video/triumph-occupy-wall-st
Hilarious!
A lesson in economics
Posted by sethbru on 6th of Nov 2011 at 02:34 pm
Hilarious!
Gap indicator
Posted by sethbru on 1st of Nov 2011 at 09:48 am
Anybody buying or covering on the gap down?
Shipping
Posted by sethbru on 21st of Oct 2011 at 12:55 pm
RP, I am the person who pointed out a while back that the HARPEX is better than the BDI for tracking global economic activity, so I am pleased to see that you have noted the correlation. I agree that the divergence is alarming, and I expect it portends an eventual market downturn. I have always been focused on fundamental analysis and am not a day-trader, so I come here to learn why fundamentals do not cause the market reaction that I expect. As you noted, the fundamentals do matter in the long run, but the short-term is more affected by technicals (which I learn about here) and news (which we cannot predict).
So, I do expect the negative fundamentals will eventually play out, but who knows when. I have wasted a lot of $$ buying OTM Puts based upon negative fundamentals which play out after my Puts expire worthless.
In addition to tracking the HARPEX on a regular basis, I watch the following:
LIBOR shows stress in Europe financials: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=US0001M:IND
HARPEX shows steady global economic decline: http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexVP.do
FED Monetary base shows peak at end of QE2 (this has had a very high correlation to the market too): http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
FED C&I loans (2nd graph) shows lending is finally starting to pickup - only good economic indicator I see: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page20.pdf
BTW, nobody here is discussing the QE3 leak which may be goosing the market today:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/es-soars-hope-qe3-non-lite-expectations-takes-out-100-sma
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/bernanke-%E2%80%93-%E2%80%9Ci%E2%80%99ve-abandoned-dual-mandate%E2%80%9D
WLT options
got long WLT
Posted by sethbru on 19th of Oct 2011 at 10:40 am
zach06, Great suggestion on selling WLT puts to offset the long calls since it seems to be at a solid bottom after the big drop this year. Thanks!
got long WLT
got long WLT
Posted by sethbru on 19th of Oct 2011 at 10:21 am
Buying the rumor? Any timeframe? I prefer to use calls for takeover plays.
Mclellan Oscillator looking toppy
Posted by sethbru on 12th of Oct 2011 at 05:35 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0
sentiment
sentiment
Posted by sethbru on 12th of Oct 2011 at 11:27 am
Bearish comments on this board (and others) reminds me of 2009 when nobody believed in the rally off the March '09 low. Back then, I went massively short and suffered my biggest losses since the Tech bubble crash since 2009 rose on the backs of shorts who kept adding more as each new resistance level was touched. I also read shorts are now at highest levels since March 2009, thus supporting my current belief. Be careful out there.
Marco's web site
lol....Marco going long now.....
Posted by sethbru on 11th of Oct 2011 at 03:09 pm
www.long-short-timing.com
Maybe they meant "Raise" the NYSE today - LOL
NYSE Was Supposed to be "Erased" Today?
Posted by sethbru on 10th of Oct 2011 at 05:15 pm
NYSE Was Supposed to be "Erased" Today?
Posted by sethbru on 10th of Oct 2011 at 05:13 pm
Didn't "ANONYMOUS" announce they were going to erase the NYSE from the Internet today?
MG, Nice charts - thanks
updated....
Posted by sethbru on 10th of Oct 2011 at 11:33 am
MG, Nice charts - thanks for the long-term perspective.
Marco Long-Short timing recommendation
If anyone is interested in following Marco's signals you can ...
Posted by sethbru on 5th of Oct 2011 at 01:10 pm
His prior 2 calls were whipsaw losses. His last short call (at the close on Friday) is currently another whipsaw where it started out very profitable, but has now fallen to a loss since he does not take profits quickly enough (in this case). So, you are suggesting to average down on a currently losing trade. If this were Matt's SPY multi-entry scale with proven history, I might average down, but I am losing faith in Marco's system.
New Lows - What to Do Now?
Posted by sethbru on 3rd of Oct 2011 at 04:02 pm
So, we just closed at new lows. Should I cover shorts after hours, or expect final capitulation tomorrow? Thanks.