Same here! I have bought slightly OTM Puts on FXE several times
in past year - all expired worthless as the Euro always turns up
when I short it via Puts.
Posted by lessarda on 16th of Feb 2012 at 12:13 am
price since May 2009. It is the net fund/large speculator
positions that have been highly correlated to price. The
distinction between commercial & non-commercial is critical in
the futures markets, as the funds/speculators are the ones driving
price in many markets. Commercials tend to be hedging risk rather
than investing.
In the chart below, blue is price, red is net commercial
contracts & black is net fund positions.
1 solid rule
1 solid rule
Posted by sethbru on 15th of Feb 2012 at 02:27 pm
Same here! I have bought slightly OTM Puts on FXE several times in past year - all expired worthless as the Euro always turns up when I short it via Puts.
Last I checked commercial traders ( COT report) are
Posted by tomW1 on 15th of Feb 2012 at 05:01 pm
heavily long the euro. Yet for small traders like us we are heavily short. The big boys usually win.
The net commercial # has been almost perfectly inverse to Euro...
Posted by lessarda on 16th of Feb 2012 at 12:13 am
price since May 2009. It is the net fund/large speculator positions that have been highly correlated to price. The distinction between commercial & non-commercial is critical in the futures markets, as the funds/speculators are the ones driving price in many markets. Commercials tend to be hedging risk rather than investing.
In the chart below, blue is price, red is net commercial contracts & black is net fund positions.
Title: a different take on
Posted by ducksoup on 15th of Feb 2012 at 11:05 pm
http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com/2012/01/look-at-our-euro-bounce-and-cot.html