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Interesting SPX chart showing how

Posted by victorh on 13th of Mar 2020 at 02:54 pm

Interesting SPX chart showing how long it took the market to get to the bottom after a decline of 20% or more in the SPX going back to 1957.  The datapoints could be useful when utilized with other homework+ gameplans. Dead cat bounces to be expected but it looks like we have at least several more months at best to an eventual bottom. 

Great chart, appreciate it. However too bad it only goes back to 1962 as it would be interesting to see how it performed in the 1929 crash which is most comparable to the current crash although even the 1929 crash wasn't as quick or bad as this one. Also none of those selling climaxes in the chart took place against this virus which is causing utter panic, a condition which didn't exist in prior selling climaxes.   


Posted by victorh on 12th of Mar 2020 at 06:33 pm
Title: Miners

This crash seems worse and

Posted by victorh on 12th of Mar 2020 at 03:53 pm

This crash seems worse and faster than the 1929 crash. Looking at GDXJ which continues to decline closing down 26% at 24.67.  On 8/13/2018 gold made a low of 1167. On the same date GDXJ closed at 27.49 much higher than it is now. Unreal and its not the only stock behaving like that. The only other time stocks declined so much and quickly was in 1929. Hopefully we get a relief rally soon maybe tonight.   

Gold stocks way out of

Posted by victorh on 12th of Mar 2020 at 03:31 pm

Gold stocks way out of whack, look at GDXJ down 22% today and making a new low  for the year.  GDXJ was last this low when Gold was hundreds of dollars cheaper. Ditto for most other gold stocks. Will gold have to fall a lot more to catch up with the gold stocks?  Looking at past market crashes in 1987 NEM was down over 50% in a few days. In the 08 crash most gold stocks were down 50% or more, back then that crash in the gold stocks took longer than just a couple days LOL

actually its 2819

Circuit breaker kicks in around

Posted by victorh on 8th of Mar 2020 at 07:31 pm

Circuit breaker kicks in around 2816 which is 5% from 4pm EST close. Anyone think it will get there?

Yes that would be true for most companies depending how much they rely on China for supplies which means the value of many companies will decline like we are seeing now. My point is the gold stocks would be particularity vulnerable as look what happened to AEM on just a tiny forward guidance decrease in production.   

Bad news for Gold stocks,

Posted by victorh on 21st of Feb 2020 at 09:45 pm

Bad news for Gold stocks, these companies like many others rely to varying degrees on parts and machinery from China. Miners in particular use all sorts of heavy machinery,  structural steel and all sorts of replacement parts mostly coming from China.  If the virus gets widespread I would  expect at least delays, possibly cancellations of projects. If the virus really takes off no one will be concerned about mining as personal survival will be the most important thing. Barring the virus becoming widespread I would expect miners to continue to operate but with the supply chains from China shut down most companies would have a drop in output, the exact amount depending on each company. 

Look at what happened to AEM this week, their forward guidance said to expect 1.8 million ounces mined this year versus expected 1.9 million and the stock got trashed down 15% for such a small reduction in forward guidance.  I can only imagine what would happen in the future to the stock price of miners if they start reducing their gold output. Under that scenario I could easily see the physical price of gold continue to advance while the stock price of many miners would decline. Also if we get a really bad stock market decline it could drag down prices of gold miners as in the 2008-2009 decline.  So considering everything it might be prudent to keep these points in the back of your mind. Hopefully the virus won't spread much here and in Canada, but even so China manufacturing is pretty much completely shut down now and for the foreseeable future so there are going to be all sorts of delays in shipments from China for all sorts of things.

Another factor to consider is that many miners have operations in third world countries such as Africa, South America, Indonesia, etc and many of these countries have poor health care systems and would be ill equipped to handle and contain the virus. If the virus became widespread in those areas many workers just wouldn't show up or be able to which would be another factor reducing output.  

The following article lists all the many personal and industrial products we rely on that come from China. 

Silver doesn't close at 2:40pm It basically trades 23 hours a day with a break from 5:15pm to 6pm eastern time. The pit trading hours are from 8:25 am eastern to 1:25pm eastern. Although trading stops at 1:25pm in the pit electronic trading doesn’t stop until 5:15pm eastern. It starts up again at 6pm. Gold also had a spike at 2:40pm so don't think it was some plot by the algos on just silver. Lots of times in the PM markets you will get spikes up or down, could be running stops, etc. Sometimes it pays to fade the stops, sometimes not.   

This QQQ chart looks like

Posted by victorh on 6th of Jan 2020 at 07:36 pm

This QQQ chart looks like a diamond top to me, a bearish reversal pattern. Any thoughts?

Their online platform working fine


Posted by victorh on 2nd of Jan 2020 at 10:58 am

Their online platform working fine for me, they always have long hold times for customer service  

Gold popped up $6 in

Posted by victorh on 30th of Dec 2019 at 09:23 pm

Gold popped up $6 in a matter of minutes right after 8pm eastern time tonight. Any ideas why? 

Is there a chart of

Posted by victorh on 30th of Dec 2019 at 10:45 am

Is there a chart of the SPY that shows exactly where the 3day SMA is so we can tell when its hit

Lets let Matt confirm exactly what day above this is. According to his various posts this is day 11 and there hasn't been a day 12 in market history. Of course with this crazy market never say never LOL. Hopefully Matt will chime in fairly soon so we can still have the opportunity to get into a inverse ETF before the market day closes.   

Matt has said the 11th

Posted by victorh on 26th of Dec 2019 at 02:32 pm

Matt has said the 11th day the SPX is  above the 3 SMA there is almost no drawdown based on many years of history. So should we wait until the close and hopefully the SPX is at HOD to try a put or inverse ETF or wait for the 12th day. 

Today is the 11th day

Posted by victorh on 26th of Dec 2019 at 10:42 am

Today is the 11th day the SPX is  above the 3 SMA. so would it be good to hedge now with a inverse ETF or wait until tomorrow?  

I'm a little confused because

Posted by victorh on 24th of Dec 2019 at 09:19 am

I'm a little confused because on Fri Dec 20 Matt said on the blog that yesterday meaning Thursday the 19th was 7 days above the 3 SMA,  That would mean Friday was the 8th day, yesterday the 9th day and  today could potentially be the 10th day. Is that a correct interpretation or was labeling Thursday Dec 19th the 7th day incorrect?   

I agree price is king, it's just that you have stated over the last couple months that market tops are usually not formed when there is a low level of bullish sentiment. I agree with that but then there is other data like some of the indicators you post and from the 2 articles I did that indicates most are very bullish so there seems to be sentiment data that contradicts itself. Maybe its a question of pick the data that correlates with your market view LOL   

It seems many people are

Posted by victorh on 17th of Dec 2019 at 04:04 pm

It seems many people are actually quite bullish, I know Matt and Steve keep pointing out that not that many people are bullish but here are two reports that say just the opposite, one from Bank of America and the other from Mark Hulbert who is a renowned expert who has been tracking sentiment figures for many years.  It's confusing to me how experts can come to different conclusions looking at the same general data.  Although I would like to believe the market can keep soaring higher because few are bullish, when I see conclusions like the ones below it gives me pause. I guess Matt and Steve are looking at a particular data set and coming to one conclusion, and the below articles are looking at other data and drawing different conclusions.  

Here is a link to the article by Mark Hulbert as the whole article will take up too much space to copy here. One of his main points is that one of his sentiment indices is showing optimism that exceeds 97% of daily readings since 2000. That’s why contrarians, who bet against the consensus, are as bearish today as they were bullish a year ago.


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