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COT not that bullish. I

Posted by victorh on 23rd of Jul 2018 at 08:33 pm

COT not that bullish. I thought the 75k level of the COT's was getting more bullish but the following comments from a major publication today seems to suggest the opposite. Comments?

"Hedge funds and other speculative investors have increased wagers that gold prices will fall over the past five consecutive weeks, pushing them to their highest level ever during the week ended July 17, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Data going back to 2006. 

Adding to worries, analysts say open interest in gold futures has been rising quickly as prices have fallen.

“This suggests that short sellers are pressing their bets,” Sundial Capital Research’s Jason Goepfert wrote in a note to clients last week. Typically the opposite happens when gold prices are bottoming out."

Gold COT not really bullish.

Posted by victorh on 30th of Jun 2018 at 11:53 pm

Gold COT not really bullish. Last week that it was the "non-commercial specs" that went shorter - and again this week we see they added 12K short OI and took off 7.8K of their long OI.

Unlike most times... there was a huge chunk of puts that ended up in the money on this last options X.

If you look at today's dis aggregated report you will see that the "managed funds" added 11K short and less than 1K long OI. That isn't what I want to see.

In the Jan-April time frame the non-commercial specs were averaging around 3.3 to one long to short. As of today's report it was 1.92 to 1 long to short. Ever since I've been watching the COT's rising prices have been dependent upon SPEC interest.

Confused about Options Example

options example

Posted by victorh on 1st of May 2018 at 12:22 pm

I am a bit confused as when you say sell the TER May 18th 32 puts and buy the 31 calls how is that a spread? You would have to sell the May 18th 32 puts naked which requires a lot of margin. For TDameritrade to sell 10 TER MAy 18th puts at .70 on a naked basis would take in $700 and require margin of $5,900.       

Actually too bad you weren't

SPX 30 min, MA config

Posted by victorh on 6th of Apr 2018 at 02:19 pm

Actually too bad you weren't super bearish as when u made that post that was just before the market made that huge  drop. So is the takeaway the MA's aren't that useful at critical junctures? 

Selling naked options

Posted by victorh on 3rd of Apr 2018 at 09:41 pm

As per the discussion earlier it can be quite expensive to sell naked SPX calls but there is a much cheaper way to accomplish the same thing. For example selling a naked 1215 strike put expiring tomorrow April 4 for $13 will require $52,000 in margin for each option sold naked.

However the margin required for selling naked options on the ES futures are much smaller for some reason. Using the same example above selling a naked put with a strike price of 1215 on the ES futures only requires $6,200 margin. The added advantage of dealing with ES options is they trade all night so you can get out anytime versus not being able to trade until the normal market open of 9:30 EST. 


It went x-dividend is why

Does a evening star pattern in EUR/USD mean the USD is potentially ready to go up? 

Fed minutes released 2pm today Feb 21

That Gold chart Big Picture

Gold (Big Picture)

Posted by victorh on 19th of Feb 2018 at 01:40 pm

That Gold chart Big Picture chart is from He is as wrong almost as often as he is right. Steve and Matt seem to think Gold will break out at some point this year and I agree although impossible to know exactly when and if the breakout will be a true one or a false breakout. Best to wait for price action to confirm things. This week may be rough for Gold with China closed for the New Year holiday as in the past whenever China is closed Gold has a habit of getting hit.         

Big picture observations on multiple

Posted by victorh on 12th of Feb 2018 at 09:11 am

Big picture observations on multiple markets

Got rid of a lot

Posted by victorh on 9th of Feb 2018 at 08:13 pm

Got rid of a lot of weak hands in the PM stocks today. Earlier huge losses were more than cut in half by the close. Hopefully, that actually means something. GDX bottomed at the exact same level as it did in July at $20.83. Volume at 100 million was the highest since April .

Stage should be set for a mean reversion snapback rally to $22.50-$23.00 next week. GDX down 7 straight and 9 of the last 10. Closed below lower Bollinger 4 straight sessions. Most oversold since December 2016.

Although the early Tuesday morning

SPX 5 min

Posted by victorh on 8th of Feb 2018 at 12:49 pm

Although the early Tuesday morning spike low was 2593 in the regular trading session hours, in the overnight session for the ES futures it was a lot lower at at 2529. Do you think we will retest the 2529 level? 

The SPY system is already long as yesterday a couple subsystems went long and the day before another one went long. Maybe another subsystem or may may go long today. Of course in a continued panic crash like this the subsystems may not work correctly or have a large draw down  

I too am confused about the signal generated from just one of the subsystems versus a signal generated from the main SPY system. I posted a question here yesterday asking Matt about this but he never replied. Although the FAQ about the SPY system never goes into detail about it I always assumed the main SPY system is based on a majority of the sub-systems giving a signal.

I asked Matt yesterday was the signal he posted based just on the one sub system he mentioned (Trap Sub) or was it based on a majority of the subsystems giving a signal. I would only want to trade the main SPY system due to its good record over the years. Another question for Matt/Steve, is the record of the SPY system based on a combination of its subsystems giving signals or is it based just on one or two of the subsystems giving a signal.   

I'm a bit confused, the

Matt..was there a SPY signal today?

Posted by victorh on 30th of Jan 2018 at 04:24 pm

I'm a bit confused, the SPY FAQ page says "The SPY Pro system is not one system, it's actually a macro system that is made up or diversified across 23 sub systems that all work in concert with one another.  Each sub system does different things and are actually whole systems on their own that can be run individually." 

Matt you just wrote that the SPY system went long one of the sub systems (Trap Sub). What about all the other sub systems? I guess what I am asking is this signal based on one sub system the same as a signal based on all 23 subsystems?  

This is a trading site which combines technical analysis and trading. Why the member took it upon himself to say "this is hardly a trading site" is beyond me. Matt and Steve give the big picture and always say members should trade according to their own objectives. Someone that day trades can get valuable info from here as well as someone who only trades on a sporadic basis,  so to say this site is only geared to day traders couldn't be more wrong.

I have used many different services many costing far more than this site and very few have given the wealth of info and big picture Matt and Steve do. I have also subscribed to Armstrongeconomics and found it to be virtually worthless. Lots of long rambling newsletters which never get that specific. On many occasions Armstrong would backtrack and switch his recommendations, maybe it works for some but not for me.      

Most of the  increase in new lows appears to be from interest rate sensitive issues i.e. bonds trading as stocks.

Appears BULL flag in the

Posted by victorh on 24th of Jan 2018 at 09:08 am

Appears BULL flag in the making…

VXO rising with the SM…

No idea how this transpires, longs need to have stops in place…

GDX breaking out

Posted by victorh on 20th of Dec 2017 at 12:59 pm

GDX breaking out


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