3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Bad news for Gold stocks, these companies like many others rely
to varying degrees on parts and machinery from China. Miners in
particular use all sorts of heavy machinery, structural steel
and all sorts of replacement parts mostly coming from China.
If the virus gets widespread I would expect at least
delays, possibly cancellations of projects. If the virus really
takes off no one will be concerned about mining as personal
survival will be the most important thing. Barring the virus
becoming widespread I would expect miners to continue to operate
but with the supply chains from China shut down most companies
would have a drop in output, the exact amount depending on each
Look at what happened to AEM this week, their forward guidance
said to expect 1.8 million ounces mined this year versus expected
1.9 million and the stock got trashed down 15% for such a small
reduction in forward guidance. I can only imagine what would
happen in the future to the stock price of miners if they start
reducing their gold output. Under that scenario I could easily see
the physical price of gold continue to advance while the stock
price of many miners would decline. Also if we get a really bad
stock market decline it could drag down prices of gold miners as in
the 2008-2009 decline. So considering everything it might be
prudent to keep these points in the back of your mind. Hopefully
the virus won't spread much here and in Canada, but even so China
manufacturing is pretty much completely shut down now and for the
foreseeable future so there are going to be all sorts of delays in
shipments from China for all sorts of things.
Another factor to consider is that many miners have operations
in third world countries such as Africa, South America, Indonesia,
etc and many of these countries have poor health care systems and
would be ill equipped to handle and contain the virus. If the virus
became widespread in those areas many workers just wouldn't show up
or be able to which would be another factor reducing output.
The following article lists all the many personal and industrial
products we rely on that come from China.
Wouldn't the story be the same for nearly all industries in the
US (aerospace, automobile, chemical, consumer electronics,
non-durable and durable manufacturing, computers, housing
construction, pharmaceuticals, etc.)?? Apple and Coca Cola
have already put forth that message. Only service related
businesses and software would escape. No?
Yes that would be true for most companies depending how much
they rely on China for supplies which means the value of many
companies will decline like we are seeing now. My point is the gold
stocks would be particularity vulnerable as look what happened to
AEM on just a tiny forward guidance decrease in production.
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!