DigiNomad, I know you do. Sell credit spreads trades are made
for this kind of sideways market. I would be trading 0DTE or
1DTE spreads if I could watch the market all day. Alas, I have a
day job.
If you do not mind, please post your trades here. A caveat that
experts only (double diamond) will apply. I could give you a
workable format of opening and closing trades in a private message.
I will ignore daytrades but will take swing trades about one to
three weeks out on options.
jones689, big moves are timed for special events, such as OpEx.
Just have wide stops and good risk to reward on your side. Heavy
use of EW coupled with supply & demand zones seems to do the
trick.
icocoldjones, no money is made this month. Shorting the close
and buying the open is a way to play wave a and c down till a
weekly squeeze is resolved one way or the other.
If someone has a better strategy, please share. This is how I
see it.
rbreese, I expect a move lower to 4100 on $SPX and a move higher
from there as per the EW
guy. The
market is bullish above 4080 on /ES, and 4080 will stay intact
until after 4217 IMHO.
Gold looks shortable here. It might eek up a bit. Energy is
becoming more negative for /GC and /NQ. I would not short /ES nor
/RTY, where energy is still positive on 1-hour charts.
We may get a double correction up, too. Yet still only to fill
the gap. The move down looks a-b-c, corrective again. 4110 is a
likely target at the bottom of the channel.
By the way, if the $PSX price stays put as it is now, I would
assume funds are entering a position for a bigger move likely
lower. The longer, the bigger.
Edit: today's gap down is a counter-trend move, and a bounce is
a reaction to retest the uptrend line. At least one more impulsive
move down is due. This is counting off yesterday's high.
DK, watch videos on credit and debit spreads on youtube for a
primer on the technique. There are several techniques involved:
worry-free out of the money 0.2 delta similar to how DigiNomad
trades, or reversion to the mean trades for 80% of credit received
(which is what Steve uses). I could give more hints in a private
message.
VIX should be putting a divergent low today, as per my
understanding of Steve's comments. A divergent high on the indexes
-- one last spike higher -- may still come tomorrow. This should
complete the picture for this whole scenario.
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I do not see 5
QQQ 5 minute - can count 5 waves down so ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 03:52 pm
I do not see 5 waves on SPX. I see two a-b-c corrective waves.
F.I.R.E. ! We should get 4130
ES 4134 potential target
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 03:31 pm
F.I.R.E. !
We should get 4130 on /ES.
DigiNomad, I know you do.
Just like most days recently, we'll open with a gap ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 02:35 pm
DigiNomad, I know you do. Sell credit spreads trades are made for this kind of sideways market. I would be trading 0DTE or 1DTE spreads if I could watch the market all day. Alas, I have a day job.
If you do not mind, please post your trades here. A caveat that experts only (double diamond) will apply. I could give you a workable format of opening and closing trades in a private message. I will ignore daytrades but will take swing trades about one to three weeks out on options.
jones689, big moves are timed
These fabricated gaps to the downside are how market makers ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 02:01 pm
jones689, big moves are timed for special events, such as OpEx. Just have wide stops and good risk to reward on your side. Heavy use of EW coupled with supply & demand zones seems to do the trick.
icocoldjones, no money is made
Just like most days recently, we'll open with a gap ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 01:58 pm
icocoldjones, no money is made this month. Shorting the close and buying the open is a way to play wave a and c down till a weekly squeeze is resolved one way or the other.
If someone has a better strategy, please share. This is how I see it.
rbreese, I expect a move
SPX 5 min
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 01:54 pm
rbreese, I expect a move lower to 4100 on $SPX and a move higher from there as per the EW guy. The market is bullish above 4080 on /ES, and 4080 will stay intact until after 4217 IMHO.
at hand, a double correction
SPX 5 min
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 12:16 pm
at hand, a double correction of April 18th high thus far.
rbreese, what is a likely
These fabricated gaps to the downside are how market makers ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 12:11 pm
rbreese, what is a likely level for the OpEx for either SPY or QQQ? Max pain indicator could be in works, I have not checked.
These gaps also prevent position trading amidst lowered liquidity (wide bid and ask gaps between two sides).
Gold looks shortable here. It
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 12:07 pm
Gold looks shortable here. It might eek up a bit. Energy is becoming more negative for /GC and /NQ. I would not short /ES nor /RTY, where energy is still positive on 1-hour charts.
We may get a double
By the way, if the $PSX price stays put as ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 11:59 am
We may get a double correction up, too. Yet still only to fill the gap. The move down looks a-b-c, corrective again. 4110 is a likely target at the bottom of the channel.
By the way, if the
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 11:35 am
By the way, if the $PSX price stays put as it is now, I would assume funds are entering a position for a bigger move likely lower. The longer, the bigger.
Edit: today's gap down is a counter-trend move, and a bounce is a reaction to retest the uptrend line. At least one more impulsive move down is due. This is counting off yesterday's high.
I do not have that
Broken trendlines on $SPX and HYG/$SPX divergences are growing:https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&id=p71122360572&a=1265357778&listNum=27&cmd=printhttps://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=120&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p06798074800&a=590234965&listNum=61&cmd=printThe moment ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 11:24 am
I do not have that option. I would have done it already if I could :(
Broken trendlines on $SPX and
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 11:18 am
Broken trendlines on $SPX and HYG/$SPX divergences are growing:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&id=p71122360572&a=1265357778&listNum=27&cmd=print
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=120&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p06798074800&a=590234965&listNum=61&cmd=print
The moment to deploy shorts is close.
TLT is reversing up: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=13&id=p56168306226&a=683081075&listNum=51&cmd=print
stockcharts.com
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
right, it is a continuation
$SPX 5-minute expanding triangle. We saw that recently in $BTCUSD. ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 09:46 am
right, it is a continuation pattern. It will break to the downside tomorrow if past history is to be used as a guide.
There is a medium-compression squeeze
It's still early, but $SPX could open below the 9 ...
Posted by junkie on 20th of Apr 2023 at 07:48 am
There is a medium-compression squeeze on /ES on 4-hour charts with bars currently pointing to the downsize.
EW analysis, big picture (part
Posted by junkie on 19th of Apr 2023 at 09:21 pm
EW analysis, big picture (part 2): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0vtxFz9CN8
DK, watch videos on credit
SPY 5
Posted by junkie on 19th of Apr 2023 at 02:22 pm
DK, watch videos on credit and debit spreads on youtube for a primer on the technique. There are several techniques involved: worry-free out of the money 0.2 delta similar to how DigiNomad trades, or reversion to the mean trades for 80% of credit received (which is what Steve uses). I could give more hints in a private message.
well done, Steve!
SPY 5
Posted by junkie on 19th of Apr 2023 at 02:09 pm
well done, Steve!
intraday
New stops on SPY and ES breakout
Posted by junkie on 19th of Apr 2023 at 12:04 pm
intraday
VIX should be putting a
VVIX lifting while VIX slumps further
Posted by junkie on 19th of Apr 2023 at 11:35 am
VIX should be putting a divergent low today, as per my understanding of Steve's comments. A divergent high on the indexes -- one last spike higher -- may still come tomorrow. This should complete the picture for this whole scenario.