focus175, wave 5 there would only contain 3 waves on $spx. Please include your screenshot for clarity.

$SPX looks to me in wave B up having finished wave A on Friday. Wave C should start tomorrow or on Wednesday.

intraday

/GC looks like a bear flag since Friday.  Contract expiry for May silver is on Wednesday. A drop in /GC and /SI could be playing out into the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Long eurusd, long gold play is still on.

Supply & demand analysis for the week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9ep0n2rap0. A note of caution for the upside and targets for the downside on any weakness after earnings. 

Andrew Maguire reports that $1950 is the new stair-stepped bottom for gold. Monday will be telling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vfrPo_E99Y

An educational video on the correlation between bonds, Nasdaq and commodities : the key to bond market is commodities 

Professional action of high lot sizes near the lows today is seen on grains (1-hour) and gold (15-min) charts. It is usually seen at or near lows.

$SPX 5-min   About 26 points from a trough to a peak each day. A corrective wave A down might be over, or one more push.

rbreese, a May high then out till a harvest low in July. Then a long-term hold.  November soybeans (new crop) are becoming attractive at these prices once soybeans stop dropping.

handyman4, El Nina and all sorts of issues with droughts in Kansas area. I am playing a seasonal bounce into May, whatever it may be. And bottom picking for a position trade. Based on the cycles, wheat should recover up to $8. Corn has put wave 4 bounce,  and should be going lower. Soybeans have more room to drop.

rbreese, Chicago wheat should be bottoming here. 658 is a stop based on weekly chart, 667 on 4-hour on July contract. OpEx is on April 27th, so funds typically sell off into the expiration date to pocket the difference on the rollover. We are looking into a yearly low here. In wave 5 or in a corrective A-B-C down after an initial bounce.

Steve, LoL (lots of laughter)! I heard of horror stories of 1000 pounds of soybeans being delivered to a house after forgetting to roll out a contract before its expiration in 1990s :-)

No, I am a city dweller. My parents both came from rural areas. I have got a feel for commodities, not so much for stock indexes. I like commodities because there are no earnings, not stock downgrades, no bankruptcies :-) They could be physically delivered if requested, too!

rbreese, I am happy for you! You like shorting so look into cocoa and soybeans for good shorts. Lean hogs still looks like a long but it may drift a bit lower into the middle of May along with the rest of commodities, IMHO. I am long Chicago wheat which is under water. It may have one more thrust lower before a reversal.

Matt, does your break-out subsystem have an exit signal? Or only a stop-out from a trailing stop? 4140 down to 4120 is a good support on /ES, and a move lower is corrective.  Wave b bounce could be an opportunity to take partial profits.

already started, everything is being sold starting with commodities. The fruit is ripe (for picking).

rbreese, it could fall more so hold on to a small runner. A pennant on 1-hour and squeeze on 4-hour and daily. Peter Schiff said Fed would crash gold: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMD4Ocyt3z4

This year is pretty unique. A pattern is one consolidation, then a squeeze, a trending move, and lastly a new consolidation. Wash, rinse, and repeat!  Every long consolidation is bound to be a topping pattern in my view.

What do I know about this market that a professional trader who trades against me, does not?

Steve,  is taking a large position to take partial profits and to leave out a runner one of the ways to navigate this market? Supply to demand zones.

Steve, I am not arguing.  QQQ is more bearish that SPY. I am thinking out loud to devise a plan for tomorrow.