Posted by jtsurfah on 19th of Oct 2020 at 04:16 pm
Affording it is not an issue. Agree - I also like to go deep in
the money (stock replacement style) to avoid high premiums....but I
think Matt has a delta target that he looks for. Kind of curious
what that might be.
Posted by jtsurfah on 19th of Oct 2020 at 02:40 pm
Bitcoin technicals getting interesting? It nearly double
bottom'd in March, then climbed up and looks like it completed a
break of the neckline on an inverted head and shoulders (not
perfect H&S, I might be seeing things). Now it look like
it might be putting in the handle of a cup and handle pattern that
began back in July 19. Mostly questions here - I don't know
all the specific rules about what makes the various patterns legit
or not.
Posted by jtsurfah on 19th of Oct 2020 at 02:33 pm
Any thoughts on gap between daily performance on GBTC and the
Bitcoin spot price?
BTCUSD up about 2% today with GBTC up 4%. I'd rather be in
something traded in an ETF type instrument so that I don't have to
go through Robinhood, coinbase, etc. I'm willing to pay the 1% fees
that come with GBTC, but it doesn't seem to be a great proxy for
bitcoin.
Posted by jtsurfah on 29th of Sep 2020 at 03:59 pm
Interesting to see dollar down at the same time as US large caps
(many being multinationals)? Should be a big tailwind for
multinationals (all other things remaining equal). Is it possible
the market is weaker than charts would suggest right now and might,
after a brief rally, have another 10% down or so to go before
getting bailed out by the Fed and Congress again? I still
have my eye on SPX 3140....
Posted by jtsurfah on 28th of Sep 2020 at 09:55 pm
How do you feel about GDX's recent correlation to the dollar?
GLD not always so correlated, but the dollar looks like it
might have some short term rally left in it (to my eye).
However, it's hard to imagine the dollar isn't not destined to go
lower in the medium term (the fed has basically promised to crush
the dollar for the forseeable future). These are more
questions based on recent observations than statements. I've
got a relatively large position in GDX, but I'm short the 36
strike calls against it. It's just an income play for me.
Projections regarding widespread adoption of plug in electric
vehicles seem to ignore people that don't have garages or don't
park in their garages because they are too small or they are too
small because they also hold our sporting equipment (many of us in
beach areas of Southern California). I couldn't own a TESLA if I
wanted to - unless I wanted one so badly I was willing to move.
Seems like a bit of a suburban dream to me (and even a more
virulent pandemic couldn't scare me into the burbs
)
TSLA buy order in for $215 (GTC). That level would still be a
valuation not many people can get their heads around (including
me), but it looks like a good spot on the charts. Got filled
at AAPL 111 last week with the same strategy (I also think AAPL is
currently overvalued).
Missed the short call, but I was mostly in spread trades. Took
off directional trades weeks ago. It's been a painful few weeks,
until today. QQQ's (my primary index for years now) still just came
down and touched the 18 EMA (QQQ Daily). The fact we did it in one
day with no ABC type action suggests to me that we bounce and take
at least one leg lower, but I'm sure we'll get some expert
commentary on that from Matt or Steve tonight.
If you only look at RSI on various longer term timeframes (day,
week), it seems like this move could push just a bit higher (in the
major indexes). The monthly chart shows that each time RSI has
spiked like this, you eventually got a chance to get in at better
prices (back to 1999). There was a double spike in 2017/2018...but
then it gave an opportunity to get in lower. I'm not an
expert on technicals (If I was I wouldn't need to pay a
subscription), but that's what I'm seeing in my research.
Kind of random, but I've been using the 18 EMA on the QQQ daily
chart to identify opportunity zones. It touched a couple of times
in May, once in July and once in July (and then bounced to new
highs each time). It didn't touch a single time in August and is
now continuing into September. The typical range from the
peak to the 18 is 2.5% to 3.0%....it's now at about 5%. That's a
crazy gap to just get back to the 2nd average in the ribbon (my
ribbon anyway). The 200 is about 70 points away (~23%). RSI
just crossed 80. Fast and slow stochastics are pegged in the 90's.
We're extremely overbought by any measure I can find. Just a pull
back into a strong vs parabolic uptrend would be a decent
size move at this point.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
No Zoom today?
ZOOM intra day access back up - click to expand
Posted by jtsurfah on 18th of Dec 2020 at 01:46 pm
No Zoom today?
Love this!
ZOOM intra day access back up - click to expand
Posted by jtsurfah on 17th of Dec 2020 at 01:07 pm
Love this!
Affording it is not an
What strike are you using for December 18th SPY call?
Posted by jtsurfah on 19th of Oct 2020 at 04:16 pm
Affording it is not an issue. Agree - I also like to go deep in the money (stock replacement style) to avoid high premiums....but I think Matt has a delta target that he looks for. Kind of curious what that might be.
What strike are you using
Posted by jtsurfah on 19th of Oct 2020 at 03:52 pm
What strike are you using for December 18th SPY call?
What strike are you considering
new SPY sub system make take a 1st entry long
Posted by jtsurfah on 19th of Oct 2020 at 03:32 pm
What strike are you considering for the Dec 18th call?
Bitcoin technicals getting interesting? It
Any thoughts on gap between daily performance on GBTC and ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 19th of Oct 2020 at 02:40 pm
Bitcoin technicals getting interesting? It nearly double bottom'd in March, then climbed up and looks like it completed a break of the neckline on an inverted head and shoulders (not perfect H&S, I might be seeing things). Now it look like it might be putting in the handle of a cup and handle pattern that began back in July 19. Mostly questions here - I don't know all the specific rules about what makes the various patterns legit or not.
Any thoughts on gap between
Posted by jtsurfah on 19th of Oct 2020 at 02:33 pm
Any thoughts on gap between daily performance on GBTC and the Bitcoin spot price?
BTCUSD up about 2% today with GBTC up 4%. I'd rather be in something traded in an ETF type instrument so that I don't have to go through Robinhood, coinbase, etc. I'm willing to pay the 1% fees that come with GBTC, but it doesn't seem to be a great proxy for bitcoin.
VIX positive and climbing today,
I don't see any divergence, but holy smokes the SPY ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 12th of Oct 2020 at 03:07 pm
VIX positive and climbing today, so clearly there are some that believe it's extended (including me)
Interesting to see dollar down
SPX 30 min abc option
Posted by jtsurfah on 29th of Sep 2020 at 03:59 pm
Interesting to see dollar down at the same time as US large caps (many being multinationals)? Should be a big tailwind for multinationals (all other things remaining equal). Is it possible the market is weaker than charts would suggest right now and might, after a brief rally, have another 10% down or so to go before getting bailed out by the Fed and Congress again? I still have my eye on SPX 3140....
How do you feel about
GDX comments
Posted by jtsurfah on 28th of Sep 2020 at 09:55 pm
How do you feel about GDX's recent correlation to the dollar? GLD not always so correlated, but the dollar looks like it might have some short term rally left in it (to my eye). However, it's hard to imagine the dollar isn't not destined to go lower in the medium term (the fed has basically promised to crush the dollar for the forseeable future). These are more questions based on recent observations than statements. I've got a relatively large position in GDX, but I'm short the 36 strike calls against it. It's just an income play for me.
Projections regarding widespread adoption of
Anyone wondering why Tesla is absolutely unwinding today needs to ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 9th of Sep 2020 at 03:20 pm
Projections regarding widespread adoption of plug in electric vehicles seem to ignore people that don't have garages or don't park in their garages because they are too small or they are too small because they also hold our sporting equipment (many of us in beach areas of Southern California). I couldn't own a TESLA if I wanted to - unless I wanted one so badly I was willing to move. Seems like a bit of a suburban dream to me (and even a more virulent pandemic couldn't scare me into the burbs )
TSLA buy order in for
Anyone wondering why Tesla is absolutely unwinding today needs to ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 9th of Sep 2020 at 11:53 am
TSLA buy order in for $215 (GTC). That level would still be a valuation not many people can get their heads around (including me), but it looks like a good spot on the charts. Got filled at AAPL 111 last week with the same strategy (I also think AAPL is currently overvalued).
FWIW, Grayscale recently added an
Anyone else follow Ethereum (ETHUSD)? Does it look like an ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 3rd of Sep 2020 at 04:58 pm
FWIW, Grayscale recently added an Ethereum trust under the ticker ETHE (I don't use it because they charge 2.5%).
Anyone else follow Ethereum (ETHUSD)?
Posted by jtsurfah on 3rd of Sep 2020 at 04:55 pm
Anyone else follow Ethereum (ETHUSD)? Does it look like an ABC correction finishing up on the 1 hour chart?
Missed the short call, but
in spite of the occasional intraday divergence or nominal dip ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 3rd of Sep 2020 at 04:48 pm
Missed the short call, but I was mostly in spread trades. Took off directional trades weeks ago. It's been a painful few weeks, until today. QQQ's (my primary index for years now) still just came down and touched the 18 EMA (QQQ Daily). The fact we did it in one day with no ABC type action suggests to me that we bounce and take at least one leg lower, but I'm sure we'll get some expert commentary on that from Matt or Steve tonight.
If you only look at
in spite of the occasional intraday divergence or nominal dip ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 2nd of Sep 2020 at 03:51 pm
If you only look at RSI on various longer term timeframes (day, week), it seems like this move could push just a bit higher (in the major indexes). The monthly chart shows that each time RSI has spiked like this, you eventually got a chance to get in at better prices (back to 1999). There was a double spike in 2017/2018...but then it gave an opportunity to get in lower. I'm not an expert on technicals (If I was I wouldn't need to pay a subscription), but that's what I'm seeing in my research.
Kind of random, but I've
in spite of the occasional intraday divergence or nominal dip ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 2nd of Sep 2020 at 03:36 pm
Kind of random, but I've been using the 18 EMA on the QQQ daily chart to identify opportunity zones. It touched a couple of times in May, once in July and once in July (and then bounced to new highs each time). It didn't touch a single time in August and is now continuing into September. The typical range from the peak to the 18 is 2.5% to 3.0%....it's now at about 5%. That's a crazy gap to just get back to the 2nd average in the ribbon (my ribbon anyway). The 200 is about 70 points away (~23%). RSI just crossed 80. Fast and slow stochastics are pegged in the 90's. We're extremely overbought by any measure I can find. Just a pull back into a strong vs parabolic uptrend would be a decent size move at this point.
VIX really making a move
Posted by jtsurfah on 31st of Aug 2020 at 03:20 pm
VIX really making a move now
Yep - me too.
Any one else having problems with think or swim or ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 17th of Aug 2020 at 12:26 pm
Yep - me too.
DG tagged resistance. Took 75%
DG starting to move
Posted by jtsurfah on 22nd of Jul 2020 at 01:39 pm
DG tagged resistance. Took 75% off. Maybe go all in again if it recycles a bit.
Haha, it pushed through resistance as I was writing this...