Posted by jtsurfah on 22nd of Jul 2020 at 12:12 pm
RBA higher on almost record volume (this early in the day).
Crazy 6 month daily chart - true V recovery. Never heard of it, but
it came in as a pick yesterday from a service I use.
Posted by jtsurfah on 15th of Jul 2020 at 01:37 pm
Not a day trader, but I shifted down to shorter time frames
looking for an IWM entry today and bought it on what looked like an
ABC pullback from the morning top with pinching MA ribbons.
Worked great this time. Thanks for drilling that play into my
head over the last few months :)
Posted by jtsurfah on 15th of Jul 2020 at 11:48 am
Also, "swing" states 89% in favor of more Federal stimulus
(shocker) so an almost certainty is now a foregone conclusion.
Anyone see Cramer's "tech analysis" segment on Mad Money
yesterday? Williams (the oscillator guy) gave him exact dates for
when the market will turn, but not how much. In this case, he says
market will top on July 27th and the S&P might go up and tag
the old highs between now and then (don't shoot the messenger, I'm
just repeating the story).
Posted by jtsurfah on 15th of Jul 2020 at 11:36 am
Had IWM on new entry list for today with a tight stop (it was
close to support)...but it popped at the open. Any thoughts on
whether or not it holds the gap?
Any ideas on how to get exposure to the Patio Heater market
through publicly traded equities?
I'd like to be more upstream than Home Depot or Lowes.
Cali shutting down dining again, but tearing up the
requirements for permits to set up dining outside, including
parking lots. Even in Cali, come September or so (depending
on location), people will want patio heaters in the mornings and
evenings. I'm guessing the trend spreads nationally and
likely even internationally?
definitely agree with selling calls against TSLA , Just
would be very careful about selling puts to offset cost of stock,
in this particular case. I'd prefer to sell puts on something I
think maybe bottoming or near major support and use the proceeds to
purchase stock or calls.
Thanks! I'm starting to work on my Interactive Brokers Python
API. Something like this shouldn't be too hard to program in
along with live data and order execution. VectorVest seems
expensive. Which of their products does this tool come with?
I'm guessing that even if I can't pull it off myself (this I
can), I could get a developer to build this out for me for less
than VV's subscription cost.
A lot of brokers have portfolio rebalancing tools these
days. But don't think of it as just for rebalancing. Plug in a
ticker, plug in the target percentage (as a % of total account) and
hit the create rebalance orders button. No need to think
about number of shares, dollar values, etc, etc. I love the one at
Interactive Brokers - only downside is that it doesn't work well
for option spreads (I use it for everything else). I will
often enter a position at 1.5% increase to 3% on weakness,
potentially scale up to around 5% if it falls down near my stop
price (typically a support area) and then scale out the same way
(if I don't get stopped out).
Risk reversal on TSLA seems incredibly risky with the 38.2%
retracement of the move from March currently at $1010. That
would just be a standard pullback....and I'd expect a decent
likelihood that TSLA retraces to the 50 or 61.8% (881 & 753) at
some point (like all equities do eventually). Speaking from
experience, it's not fun when a risk reversal goes hard against
you. Even though you know it's only a paper loss until it gets
below your short strike, it can blow up an account while you're
waiting for the premium to decay.
"Risk Reversal" strategies are great. I prefer the classic
approach of selling a put to finance the price of a call (sometimes
for a small credit), but you can do it with stock instead (as
described). Personally, I would only do stock vs options for
tax reasons and/or because the underlying pays a decent sized
dividend that I want to capture.
I'm a huge fan of spreads (mostly debit spreads, but some credit
spreads). However, I pretty much had to stop using them in client
accounts. One reason is that they are difficult to size correctly
unless account size is large (with the relatively large average PPS
these days). Also, when market crashes (happens regularly with the
Fed juicing everything these days), it is very difficult to explain
that the exploding vol is making the account look much worse than
it really is (unless forced to liquidate before expiry). I
definitely still use them in my personal accounts. Almost
exclusively.
Rising wedge on QQQ's daily chart (old high in Feb to March low
forms one side). Seems most likely to eventually resolve down, not
up, but we will see.
Posted by jtsurfah on 29th of Jun 2020 at 02:44 pm
INTU - been monitoring it for a break above the ascending
triangle , but the company got destroyed on an episode of "Patriot
Act" that I watched on Netflix yesterday. They way "the mob"
has been able to dole out justice lately, I'm not sure I would
touch INTU with that episode floating around.
*I try not to be political and am a moderate when I am, but
the show did have some good points about INTU marketing tactics
that I have actually experienced myself.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
RBA higher on almost record
Posted by jtsurfah on 22nd of Jul 2020 at 12:12 pm
RBA higher on almost record volume (this early in the day). Crazy 6 month daily chart - true V recovery. Never heard of it, but it came in as a pick yesterday from a service I use.
DG starting to move
Posted by jtsurfah on 22nd of Jul 2020 at 12:04 pm
DG starting to move
Not a day trader, but
Posted by jtsurfah on 15th of Jul 2020 at 01:37 pm
Not a day trader, but I shifted down to shorter time frames looking for an IWM entry today and bought it on what looked like an ABC pullback from the morning top with pinching MA ribbons. Worked great this time. Thanks for drilling that play into my head over the last few months :)
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/jim-cramer-charts-suggest-sp-500-climb-will-stall-out-in-late-july.html
Had IWM on new entry list for today with a ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 15th of Jul 2020 at 12:13 pm
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/jim-cramer-charts-suggest-sp-500-climb-will-stall-out-in-late-july.html
Also, "swing" states 89% in
Had IWM on new entry list for today with a ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 15th of Jul 2020 at 11:48 am
Also, "swing" states 89% in favor of more Federal stimulus (shocker) so an almost certainty is now a foregone conclusion.
Anyone see Cramer's "tech analysis" segment on Mad Money yesterday? Williams (the oscillator guy) gave him exact dates for when the market will turn, but not how much. In this case, he says market will top on July 27th and the S&P might go up and tag the old highs between now and then (don't shoot the messenger, I'm just repeating the story).
Had IWM on new entry
Posted by jtsurfah on 15th of Jul 2020 at 11:36 am
Had IWM on new entry list for today with a tight stop (it was close to support)...but it popped at the open. Any thoughts on whether or not it holds the gap?
Air Gas used to be
Any ideas on how to get exposure to the Patio ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 8th of Jul 2020 at 02:54 pm
Air Gas used to be publicly traded, but it got taken private.
Any ideas on how to
Posted by jtsurfah on 8th of Jul 2020 at 02:49 pm
Any ideas on how to get exposure to the Patio Heater market through publicly traded equities?
I'd like to be more upstream than Home Depot or Lowes. Cali shutting down dining again, but tearing up the requirements for permits to set up dining outside, including parking lots. Even in Cali, come September or so (depending on location), people will want patio heaters in the mornings and evenings. I'm guessing the trend spreads nationally and likely even internationally?
Anyone looking at Homebuilder components?
Posted by jtsurfah on 8th of Jul 2020 at 12:29 pm
Anyone looking at Homebuilder components? Looks like a few of them are breaking out of coils or moving bullishly within a coil today (LEN, PHB, etc).
definitely agree with selling calls
TSLA options
Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 09:34 pm
definitely agree with selling calls against TSLA , Just would be very careful about selling puts to offset cost of stock, in this particular case. I'd prefer to sell puts on something I think maybe bottoming or near major support and use the proceeds to purchase stock or calls.
Thanks! I'm starting to work
CHFS broke out and came back inside the pattern. BBX ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 05:42 pm
Thanks! I'm starting to work on my Interactive Brokers Python API. Something like this shouldn't be too hard to program in along with live data and order execution. VectorVest seems expensive. Which of their products does this tool come with? I'm guessing that even if I can't pull it off myself (this I can), I could get a developer to build this out for me for less than VV's subscription cost.
A lot of brokers have
CHFS broke out and came back inside the pattern. BBX ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 04:51 pm
A lot of brokers have portfolio rebalancing tools these days. But don't think of it as just for rebalancing. Plug in a ticker, plug in the target percentage (as a % of total account) and hit the create rebalance orders button. No need to think about number of shares, dollar values, etc, etc. I love the one at Interactive Brokers - only downside is that it doesn't work well for option spreads (I use it for everything else). I will often enter a position at 1.5% increase to 3% on weakness, potentially scale up to around 5% if it falls down near my stop price (typically a support area) and then scale out the same way (if I don't get stopped out).
Risk reversal on TSLA seems
TSLA options
Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 04:26 pm
Risk reversal on TSLA seems incredibly risky with the 38.2% retracement of the move from March currently at $1010. That would just be a standard pullback....and I'd expect a decent likelihood that TSLA retraces to the 50 or 61.8% (881 & 753) at some point (like all equities do eventually). Speaking from experience, it's not fun when a risk reversal goes hard against you. Even though you know it's only a paper loss until it gets below your short strike, it can blow up an account while you're waiting for the premium to decay.
"Risk Reversal" strategies are great.
TSLA options
Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 04:09 pm
"Risk Reversal" strategies are great. I prefer the classic approach of selling a put to finance the price of a call (sometimes for a small credit), but you can do it with stock instead (as described). Personally, I would only do stock vs options for tax reasons and/or because the underlying pays a decent sized dividend that I want to capture.
I'm a huge fan of
I know I am the odd man out on here ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 02:33 pm
I'm a huge fan of spreads (mostly debit spreads, but some credit spreads). However, I pretty much had to stop using them in client accounts. One reason is that they are difficult to size correctly unless account size is large (with the relatively large average PPS these days). Also, when market crashes (happens regularly with the Fed juicing everything these days), it is very difficult to explain that the exploding vol is making the account look much worse than it really is (unless forced to liquidate before expiry). I definitely still use them in my personal accounts. Almost exclusively.
Thx. I'll also post when
out of all puts for loss
Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Jul 2020 at 12:19 pm
Thx. I'll also post when I let mine go - me giving up on protection usually signals the market is near a top
Will probably resolve down as
Rising wedge on QQQ's daily chart (old high in Feb ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jul 2020 at 02:37 pm
Will probably resolve down as soon as I give up on fighting the Fed and go all in on the long side
Rising wedge on QQQ's daily
Posted by jtsurfah on 1st of Jul 2020 at 01:58 pm
Rising wedge on QQQ's daily chart (old high in Feb to March low forms one side). Seems most likely to eventually resolve down, not up, but we will see.
INTU - been monitoring it
Posted by jtsurfah on 29th of Jun 2020 at 02:44 pm
INTU - been monitoring it for a break above the ascending triangle , but the company got destroyed on an episode of "Patriot Act" that I watched on Netflix yesterday. They way "the mob" has been able to dole out justice lately, I'm not sure I would touch INTU with that episode floating around.
*I try not to be political and am a moderate when I am, but the show did have some good points about INTU marketing tactics that I have actually experienced myself.
AKAM coiling on multiple timeframes
Posted by jtsurfah on 29th of Jun 2020 at 02:33 pm
AKAM coiling on multiple timeframes