Kind of random, but I've been using the 18 EMA on the QQQ daily
chart to identify opportunity zones. It touched a couple of times
in May, once in July and once in July (and then bounced to new
highs each time). It didn't touch a single time in August and is
now continuing into September. The typical range from the
peak to the 18 is 2.5% to 3.0%....it's now at about 5%. That's a
crazy gap to just get back to the 2nd average in the ribbon (my
ribbon anyway). The 200 is about 70 points away (~23%). RSI
just crossed 80. Fast and slow stochastics are pegged in the 90's.
We're extremely overbought by any measure I can find. Just a pull
back into a strong vs parabolic uptrend would be a decent
size move at this point.
If you only look at RSI on various longer term timeframes (day,
week), it seems like this move could push just a bit higher (in the
major indexes). The monthly chart shows that each time RSI has
spiked like this, you eventually got a chance to get in at better
prices (back to 1999). There was a double spike in 2017/2018...but
then it gave an opportunity to get in lower. I'm not an
expert on technicals (If I was I wouldn't need to pay a
subscription), but that's what I'm seeing in my research.
Missed the short call, but I was mostly in spread trades. Took
off directional trades weeks ago. It's been a painful few weeks,
until today. QQQ's (my primary index for years now) still just came
down and touched the 18 EMA (QQQ Daily). The fact we did it in one
day with no ABC type action suggests to me that we bounce and take
at least one leg lower, but I'm sure we'll get some expert
commentary on that from Matt or Steve tonight.
in spite of the occasional
Posted by watcdy on 2nd of Sep 2020 at 03:21 pm
in spite of the occasional intraday divergence or nominal dip does anyone see anything that would indicate a
sell off of even a couple of percent ?? i keep thinking I`m rational and market isn`t or is it the other way around ?
Kind of random, but I've
Posted by jtsurfah on 2nd of Sep 2020 at 03:36 pm
Kind of random, but I've been using the 18 EMA on the QQQ daily chart to identify opportunity zones. It touched a couple of times in May, once in July and once in July (and then bounced to new highs each time). It didn't touch a single time in August and is now continuing into September. The typical range from the peak to the 18 is 2.5% to 3.0%....it's now at about 5%. That's a crazy gap to just get back to the 2nd average in the ribbon (my ribbon anyway). The 200 is about 70 points away (~23%). RSI just crossed 80. Fast and slow stochastics are pegged in the 90's. We're extremely overbought by any measure I can find. Just a pull back into a strong vs parabolic uptrend would be a decent size move at this point.
If you only look at
Posted by jtsurfah on 2nd of Sep 2020 at 03:51 pm
If you only look at RSI on various longer term timeframes (day, week), it seems like this move could push just a bit higher (in the major indexes). The monthly chart shows that each time RSI has spiked like this, you eventually got a chance to get in at better prices (back to 1999). There was a double spike in 2017/2018...but then it gave an opportunity to get in lower. I'm not an expert on technicals (If I was I wouldn't need to pay a subscription), but that's what I'm seeing in my research.
jtsarfah, i see that double
Posted by imelhoe on 2nd of Sep 2020 at 04:12 pm
jtsarfah, i see that double spike up too on the qqq on NQ. so let us know when its time to short pls.
Missed the short call, but
Posted by jtsurfah on 3rd of Sep 2020 at 04:48 pm
Missed the short call, but I was mostly in spread trades. Took off directional trades weeks ago. It's been a painful few weeks, until today. QQQ's (my primary index for years now) still just came down and touched the 18 EMA (QQQ Daily). The fact we did it in one day with no ABC type action suggests to me that we bounce and take at least one leg lower, but I'm sure we'll get some expert commentary on that from Matt or Steve tonight.
haha all true
Posted by watcdy on 2nd of Sep 2020 at 03:55 pm
haha all true
thx-- i`m going take
Posted by watcdy on 2nd of Sep 2020 at 03:40 pm
thx-- i`m going take another look-- i appreciate your view