Thoughts on TBPH?
It triggered this morning (for my strategy), lost it, and has
been climbing back all day. I was already tracking and then
it came in from another stock picking service I use this
morning.
Posted by jtsurfah on 31st of May 2020 at 07:31 pm
Thanks for the great insight. I've been a TSLA bear for the same
reason I've been a AMZN bear - valuation. I can't justify
touching it for client accounts, but I came off the fence and
personally bought it a few weeks back. I'm too big of a fan to sit
on the sidelines!
Posted by jtsurfah on 31st of May 2020 at 07:24 pm
Markets at any one point in time represents the real time
balance between buyers to sellers. The fact that the markets are
relatively stable here, tells me they are rigged.
Posted by jtsurfah on 31st of May 2020 at 07:21 pm
Plunge Protection Team working over time to defend 3K.
What rational individual or institution, anywhere in the world,
would be buying S&P futures this moment with the almost
certainty that there will be a sale tomorrow? It doesn't
make any sense. Either the Fed crossed another red line (in secret)
or another Gov team is buying in secret (my opinion).
Posted by jtsurfah on 29th of May 2020 at 02:32 pm
Anyone have experience trading XSP vs SPX? I like the
flexibility of the much smaller notional value (1/10th SPX), but
not sure about liquidity, etc. The spreads look pretty
good.
Posted by jtsurfah on 28th of May 2020 at 04:58 pm
Looks like Presidential Plunge Protection Team work to me :)
If you're the Prez, wouldn't you be tempted to strongly
suggest that a team with a classified budget in the Intelligence
group be given orders to buy large amounts of equities? I
mean, it wouldn't be all that difficult to make a strong case that
stock market crashes harm national security. I'm not saying I
agree - just saying it's hard to imagine it's never happened in the
past and is very likely happening again during this cycle.
Posted by jtsurfah on 21st of May 2020 at 02:06 am
One of my first big losses was in 2002 or 2003. I
woke up to a 23K pre market loss in OVTI (before I had 23K to
lose). I didn't go to bed with open positions back in those days,
but I made an exception because camera phone lenses seemed like
they were going to become a hot thing and were as close I as I was
going to get to a no brainer. Long story short, the stock
gapped way down past my stop after they delayed earnings and
announced "accounting irregularities" before the open. I hate
that stops only work during normal trading hours.
Posted by jtsurfah on 21st of May 2020 at 01:52 am
Matt / Steve - Would you consider sharing some theories on
setting stops? I've never been a big fan because I've
experienced the risk of pre and post market gaps, getting hit
right before a reverse (even when I thought I set it wide), etc,
etc. These days I tend to use options for risk management
instead of stops, but the newsletters are really starting to drill
the idea of stops into my head and I'm starting to
reconsidering old habits. Wouldn't mind hearing from others
as well.
Posted by jtsurfah on 17th of Apr 2020 at 04:37 pm
I must have misunderstood your earlier post. Darn, I was hoping
to hear that another weak hand got taken out and switched bullish
I took profits on the short side of my QQQ put spreads
earlier this week and rolled the long side out in time...but too
many people like me out there right now keeping a floor under what
should be a horrible market
Posted by jtsurfah on 17th of Apr 2020 at 04:15 pm
Also, an expanding multiples makes sense if the risk free rate
is .6% (or less) and there is no inflation expected. Many
fund managers have charters that don't allow them to go to cash.
There is a ridiculous amount of money out there and it has to find
a home...even if it's a really beat up home. It may just be the
best home in a bad neighborhood.
Posted by jtsurfah on 17th of Apr 2020 at 04:07 pm
Too many people are still hedged and negative (me included).
Need more positive sentiment and people like ssaffer throwing in
the towel and going long....then we'll get a reality check. Will we
test the lows and/or make new ones? Who knows. It's just that
markets bottom because sellers exhaust themselves and vice versa
with tops - which also has a tendency to inflict max pain.
We need to get more participants off sides before we get a
turn.
Posted by jtsurfah on 16th of Apr 2020 at 04:24 am
Anyone else having trouble seeing the video today?
I was able to scroll through the slides but there was no
audio. I got an error with all 4 browsers I tried with the
newsletter that allows you to jump around (complete fail on that
one). Please post. This is an important time to be tracking as
close as possible.
Plunge Protection Team? Market feels a bit manipulated,
beyond just the very obvious manipulation like Fed openly buying
HYG and JNK. I would be so angry if I came into today with
puts on those!!
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I like it so far.
Remote Sharing My screen
Posted by jtsurfah on 9th of Jun 2020 at 02:56 pm
I like it so far. Very useful / time saving on my end. Thx.
Now I just need a 5th monitor
FREQ on the move
NTLX and FREQ follow up
Posted by jtsurfah on 9th of Jun 2020 at 01:30 pm
FREQ on the move
Yep, all day, but now
Oh my VIX is climbing!!
Posted by jtsurfah on 8th of Jun 2020 at 03:43 pm
Yep, all day, but now moving up strongly. Market knows something coming or people just adding hedges at new highs?
Kudo's to new calls in
Posted by jtsurfah on 8th of Jun 2020 at 03:41 pm
Kudo's to new calls in this weekends newsletter!
Besides SONO, there was RIG (up 45% ) and RRC (up over 21%).
Thoughts on TBPH? It triggered
Posted by jtsurfah on 2nd of Jun 2020 at 02:53 pm
Thoughts on TBPH?
It triggered this morning (for my strategy), lost it, and has been climbing back all day. I was already tracking and then it came in from another stock picking service I use this morning.
Thanks for the great insight.
Long Term discussions on TSLA, SpaceX and esp Starlink
Posted by jtsurfah on 31st of May 2020 at 07:31 pm
Thanks for the great insight. I've been a TSLA bear for the same reason I've been a AMZN bear - valuation. I can't justify touching it for client accounts, but I came off the fence and personally bought it a few weeks back. I'm too big of a fan to sit on the sidelines!
Markets at any one point
Plunge Protection Team working over time to defend 3K. ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 31st of May 2020 at 07:24 pm
Markets at any one point in time represents the real time balance between buyers to sellers. The fact that the markets are relatively stable here, tells me they are rigged.
Plunge Protection Team working over
Posted by jtsurfah on 31st of May 2020 at 07:21 pm
Plunge Protection Team working over time to defend 3K. What rational individual or institution, anywhere in the world, would be buying S&P futures this moment with the almost certainty that there will be a sale tomorrow? It doesn't make any sense. Either the Fed crossed another red line (in secret) or another Gov team is buying in secret (my opinion).
Plunge Protection Team seems to
Posted by jtsurfah on 29th of May 2020 at 02:52 pm
Plunge Protection Team seems to be defending 3000
Anyone have experience trading XSP
Posted by jtsurfah on 29th of May 2020 at 02:32 pm
Anyone have experience trading XSP vs SPX? I like the flexibility of the much smaller notional value (1/10th SPX), but not sure about liquidity, etc. The spreads look pretty good.
Looks like Presidential Plunge Protection
QQQ drop to closeLooking at the Buy volume like Steve ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 28th of May 2020 at 04:58 pm
Looks like Presidential Plunge Protection Team work to me :)
If you're the Prez, wouldn't you be tempted to strongly suggest that a team with a classified budget in the Intelligence group be given orders to buy large amounts of equities? I mean, it wouldn't be all that difficult to make a strong case that stock market crashes harm national security. I'm not saying I agree - just saying it's hard to imagine it's never happened in the past and is very likely happening again during this cycle.
Did we just put in
SPX 5 min
Posted by jtsurfah on 21st of May 2020 at 12:10 pm
Did we just put in a potential wave C on the 3 minute?
One of my first big
Matt / Steve - Would you consider sharing some theories ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 21st of May 2020 at 02:06 am
One of my first big losses was in 2002 or 2003. I woke up to a 23K pre market loss in OVTI (before I had 23K to lose). I didn't go to bed with open positions back in those days, but I made an exception because camera phone lenses seemed like they were going to become a hot thing and were as close I as I was going to get to a no brainer. Long story short, the stock gapped way down past my stop after they delayed earnings and announced "accounting irregularities" before the open. I hate that stops only work during normal trading hours.
Matt / Steve - Would
Posted by jtsurfah on 21st of May 2020 at 01:52 am
Matt / Steve - Would you consider sharing some theories on setting stops? I've never been a big fan because I've experienced the risk of pre and post market gaps, getting hit right before a reverse (even when I thought I set it wide), etc, etc. These days I tend to use options for risk management instead of stops, but the newsletters are really starting to drill the idea of stops into my head and I'm starting to reconsidering old habits. Wouldn't mind hearing from others as well.
I meant took profits on
anyone have a firm thought about monday---follow thru or reality ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 17th of Apr 2020 at 04:38 pm
I meant took profits on the short side of PUT spreads
I must have misunderstood your
anyone have a firm thought about monday---follow thru or reality ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 17th of Apr 2020 at 04:37 pm
I must have misunderstood your earlier post. Darn, I was hoping to hear that another weak hand got taken out and switched bullish I took profits on the short side of my QQQ put spreads earlier this week and rolled the long side out in time...but too many people like me out there right now keeping a floor under what should be a horrible market
Also, an expanding multiples makes
anyone have a firm thought about monday---follow thru or reality ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 17th of Apr 2020 at 04:15 pm
Also, an expanding multiples makes sense if the risk free rate is .6% (or less) and there is no inflation expected. Many fund managers have charters that don't allow them to go to cash. There is a ridiculous amount of money out there and it has to find a home...even if it's a really beat up home. It may just be the best home in a bad neighborhood.
Too many people are still
anyone have a firm thought about monday---follow thru or reality ...
Posted by jtsurfah on 17th of Apr 2020 at 04:07 pm
Too many people are still hedged and negative (me included). Need more positive sentiment and people like ssaffer throwing in the towel and going long....then we'll get a reality check. Will we test the lows and/or make new ones? Who knows. It's just that markets bottom because sellers exhaust themselves and vice versa with tops - which also has a tendency to inflict max pain. We need to get more participants off sides before we get a turn.
Anyone else having trouble seeing
Posted by jtsurfah on 16th of Apr 2020 at 04:24 am
Anyone else having trouble seeing the video today?
I was able to scroll through the slides but there was no audio. I got an error with all 4 browsers I tried with the newsletter that allows you to jump around (complete fail on that one). Please post. This is an important time to be tracking as close as possible.
Plunge Protection Team? Market feels
Posted by jtsurfah on 9th of Apr 2020 at 03:59 pm
Plunge Protection Team? Market feels a bit manipulated, beyond just the very obvious manipulation like Fed openly buying HYG and JNK. I would be so angry if I came into today with puts on those!!