XLC (Communications sector) Took a second entry today at $61.25. My current average is $62.03. Closed at $61.32 today. Now at a 30 RSI and very stretched away from its 9/13 and other mas. 

Here are the holdings: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLC/holdings?p=XLC

The 9/13day moving averages in the 65-66 area to start: https://schrts.co/WSqWYNGa 

Thankful for hedges the last few days. This is a business, nothing more. I have a plan that divorces my emotions and I carry it out. That's what the market makers and people who control this are doing, just flip flopping inventory and making up stories to support why things went where. 

The world isn't ending. Enjoy life, family, and friends. This too shall pass. And if it doesn't, it doesn't matter anyway   

Cathie Wood’s ARKK holdings all traded lower Thursday -- except for Tesla. 

This has to be the worst performance in fund management history. Really no excuse frankly. At one time she sold some stocks that would have diversified her a little more (she owned some big healthcare names I remember for example) but she sold them and bought more and more of the stocks that were getting killed, unprofitable companies, ROKU, ZM, all her top 10. 

Here's the funny part, her investment thesis is actually bearish for her own portfolio.   

Maybe she will be right a few years from now, question will be if her investors are solvent. The way the math works is you go down 50%, you now need 100% to get back to even, tough sledding. The high on ARKK was $159s. Today it closed at $53.34. 

That is exactly why I sell on the way up and raise stops. I got sick of seeing the trend investment guys who got in long ago talk about how MOS was going to 100 in a straight line while they fed the ducks their inventory. It is never different. Risk/reward. And kudos Steve for always pointing out on here to NEVER get complacent. 

Sold my short/hedge position on SPX. I shorted on the gap up into 4,500s and closed out near end of day. Used SPXS as my instrument. 

I also initiated a first entry in XLC (communications sector), which is about 1/3 of what I'm willing to own. I'm looking for a reversion to mean trade there similar to what I did with IYT recently. Could you guys please add this to the newsletter?and cover the chart, positive divergence will likely be setting up now at some point. I would appreciate it. 

I'm now out of IYT as it tagged its 50 day, perfect achievement of the target. Pretty good run from 239s to almost 258. Good enough. I used TPOR leveraged and IYT as my instruments. 

Still way too much bearishness, that needs to get worked off first if we are in fact going lower longer term or just correcting with time/consolidation in a larger pattern

Opinion: There’s too much bearishness in the stock market — here are four things that could go right for investors

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-too-much-bearishness-in-the-stock-market-here-are-four-things-that-could-go-right-for-investors-11650392593

Always good to have another view of the situation, we know the bearish view very well here, makes me think the answer is possibly somewhere in the middle, more like the frustration pattern (triangle of pain), Matt mentioned in the newsletter. Possibly even better as earnings have been decent so far overall, we find out more next week with big tech.

Needs to cool off badly. I think certain markets will stay high, like Florida, sunbelt remains attractive, as well as some of the hot areas in the north...though nationally it will come down some.

XLC on watch now with the communications area, Netflix earnings report being negative, etc. 

There will be a point where a reversion to mean trade will be available, just like recently was with the transports (IYT), which is still going at the moment. I also posted the staples prior (XLP) which gave an amazing swing trade from 72s to 80 & change. 

There are 11 sectors in the stock market and it is one big rotation from one place to another. One trading strategy is to find out where the opportunity is when things get too stretched and there is a great risk/reward. Buy supports, sell resistances. 

Here are the holdings: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLC/holdings?p=XLC

Chart here with the 9/13 ma: https://schrts.co/tWparHTd 

I only trade indexes and sectors. No individual names for me as they are too much of a popularity contest and abused by algos and market makers. To each is own. It took me years to find my specialty and I stick to it. If I want more conviction, I go with leverage

Right around the 200 day, yes

This worked out beautifully, I'll sell the remainder of my shares today as it is near 80 now and overbought. An oversold to overbought move is the holy grail in swing trading. Can't ask for more than that and I wasn't expecting that kind of run. 

SPX  Earnings look good from Procter, IBM, and others. TSLA should be steady and may help with strength in today's session, margins appear to be in line for them and earnings steady. Guess we will see. The market doesn't seem to care about Netflix and is gapping up. Inflation, war, covid, etc. are all who cares until the sentiment changes. Have a plan and execute as usual. Take what the market gives. 

its a great short to scale in my opinion, an 84 RSI isn't sustainable. I'm not interested, though it will fall hard just like oil did at some point

setting up as a wonderful opportunity once it settles

When I was a new trader, I would often miss the moving average resistances because my charts were not following shorter term time frames. And the moving average moves on the day, so it might have showed 4,460s, prior as a target when in fact it came in at 4,459 on the day. Almost to the button this morning when it hit that area

They love to Pinocchio those areas. Not saying it couldn't go lower then but it had gotten stretched short term. And the inflation data and earnings and known at this point. Still too much bearishness to go down hard right now. If it does it will happen when they start to adjust the rates. Or will it. Trade what we got, buy support, sell resistance. 

It looks like this..

SPX Kudos to Matt and Steve for posting the pullback scenario to around 4,400 support. Really good work and now we are getting the rally.   

I posted I bought off the double bottom support and used TPOR for leveraged trade, made about 8%. I still have my IYT for more upside potential here. Analyst came out today and said the space was priced to weather a recession. Tons of value and great companies. I showed the holdings as well in my prior post. Basically the same strategy when you do the SPY system trades. Buy one leveraged instrument and the other less leveraged or regular. Works well. Been watching a few other areas like Semis, Homebuilders, and more for a setup in similar fashion. 

SPX eyes on that primary pivot Steve mentioned in the newsletter at 4,416. Maybe we can push up here and the pain trade head back to 4,470s to start (9 ema) or close the 4,481 gap. 64% of investors now expect a new low and under 4,000 on SPX this year. I'm starting to favor the view Matt offered, the frustration pattern that doesn't pay bulls or bears in a significant way this year. I'll take what they give though and trade what's in front of me in accordance with my plan. 

It was a tremendous short when they put out those high price targets and was near 80 on the rsi given it was going to pay a dividend. Perfect backdrop. Reminded me of oil a bit back when it was $130 and everyone calling $200s in a parabolic move. Risk/reward. What goes up, must come down..singing