They trapped bears good today with that 4,188 and never filled the 4,183 and now we are over 4,300. Just nasty stuff on both sides. Really slimy market this year

XLC Looks like FB saved my bacon on the reversion to mean swing trade. I took a third entry yesterday before the close and I'm already in the money. Targeting the 9/13 ema to start on the rally though will keep an open mind.

FB is 24% of the fund and NFLX is in it too..so if it can bounce I think I'm in good shape. Others like T are strong in it and DIS due for catch up trade too. Shows again the power of rotations I mentioned which always happen. My focus with this strategy is to get them very stretched away from their 9 Ema and near supports. Previous big winners XLP and IYT  I posted here.

I prior listed the holdings, though no computer with me in the mountains, so only text today. 

As the Rolling Stones say, "You can't always get what you want"  Would be nice though

$SPX Bulls saved the gap on the cash at 4,175 close yesterday. The gap was at 4,173 and it never got there. That was the game over area for the next leg down. Amazing how this stuff works. Total casino. Time to stick it to bears here now for a day or two it seems. Gap and go down yesterday, gap and go up today? Very oversold now on shorter term time frames. 

Kudos to you on that call to cover and adjust stops Steve. You have been all over the declines, good short seller

I honestly would have never thought hedging again into the close yesterday would have paid off. In cards this would have been a bad beat. That kind of a set up almost never goes down. Pretty amazing waking up to a gap and go on the downside. Guess Oz decided it was finally time. Fair enough. Glad for hedges, no problem. I can sit through any market. Barely touched today. Next round. 

They dare interrupt my trip to the mountains with this foolishness  So glad I'm not in the business for clients anymore, this would have been a 14 hour day easy. 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3826267-stocks-should-rally-this-week-reverse-last-weeks-losses-kolanovic

both levels achieved and moving higher. Typical story , the markets show what often happens in life, a lack of perspective. I mentioned this morning the large put buying and to look at rydex bear funds again as it was getting too stretched. Then I mentioned buying trading inventory at 4,200 support. 

We were just going to automatically go down to 4,000 right? Not how it works

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/twitter-accepts-elon-musks-buyout-deal.html 

Did he save the market here for a while? hmmm

XLC new hod and outperforming the indices here, both QQQ and SPX alike. Rotation. My trade is setting up great here for the reversion to mean. 

There are no system trades in play, check the tabs, everything is in cash. 

She had some great points on her interview today with yahoo finance as well. Pointing out that technology is the future of the economy and that if you can look further out when purchasing bargains and plan accordingly, you can do well buying into times of shorter term dislocation. 

4,255s current high of day then 4,271 gap are next areas to watch for the rally to start. 

Remember that the best days in the market happen within 30 days of the worst days, often sooner than that. 

Very welcome, thanks for appreciating it! 

Selling looks to be drying up and it looks like a rally as we head into tech earnings starting tomorrow. That would be strength that could be used to hedge or sell some things if someone isn't positioned correctly or that scared. Looking further out and having reasonable allocations solves a lot for me. I was a buyer at 4,200 for some trading inventory. 

Remember many said the 70-80 rsi energy stocks had a "long way to go" and nothing was coming down ever? It is never different, ever! Risk/reward. Nice work

Time to review the Rydex bear funds again. A 5 million put trade occurred on Friday and Vix futures aren't pricing a big drop in the next month or so after the spike over 30. Looks like a lot of out of the money buying. Usually about the time things are starting to get overdone at least for a bounce at some point. 4,220 on futures held this morning for now and that is a big area. Guess we will see. 

XLC, thanks for covering it Matt. Great comprehensive newsletter. 

I have a low 62 average and have taken two entries in it so far. If we get some kind of big whoosh down in the markets, I will likely make a double entry to complete my position. I have a target amount I'm willing to own. What I'm looking for here is a reversion to mean play as I posted prior. Much like we saw with IYT into its 50 day recently, though given the backdrop I'd be looking for the 9/13 as a start then take it from there. 

Earnings are super important for the market, 2nd attachment shows some of them for this week. One thing I'll say amidst the concerns long term is that earnings have actually been decent overall ex Netflix and a few of the high pe names. When markets selloff and sentiment goes south, it all gets hit though. We saw this on the upside too when sentiment was bullish and everything was going up and many were puzzled as to why. All depends where the focus is. The markets often have a singular focus, it is either good or bad. And the reality is, there is perspective in life and outcomes don't happen overnight. 

So in planning for the week, I'm just wondering if things are getting a bit stretched to the downside now? Coca-Cola just beat this morning: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/coca-cola-ko-q1-2022-earnings.html   That is staples though and it is known that they have demand and pricing power. The big tech earnings and some others in the list I'm very interested in. The question becomes if we get a rally, at what area is someone willing to get short or hedge their longs? The first area now will be 4,271s the close from Friday as it looks like we are going to have a gap now. That 4,220 area appears to be holding for now that has been an area that has been tested a lot this year. 

That 4,370 area that was a prior low (15 min chart, 3rd image attached) could be an area if a rally got going that would be attractive to hedge. I think the 9 ma starts around 4,400 or so on the long term. Gotta stay focused in a plan here. 

You can hold them for 12 months and just give up three months interest if you cash them after that. Still beats letting funds sit in a savings account. You'd still be at a 6.05% rate even if you cashed them after 12 months. 

If you hold them for 5 years, then no interest is given up on any of it. 9.62% is amazing, or whatever it is going to be when they publish it on May 1. I don't know of anywhere you can get a guaranteed rate like that on cash that is Federally insured. Better than it sitting in a bank account doing nothing if not being used for at least 12 months. 

Once I buy them, I don't plan to sell them for a long time. Maybe years down the line if needed. Almost 10% is an moderate equity type return with no risk. It was for many years before the markets got juiced with all the loose monetary policy. Unsustainable as we are seeing now. 

The older I get the more I like not having to babysit money. I'd rather spend the time with family, friends, and doing whatever else that I'm here to do and to enjoy. I do some trading, but it is work and it can be draining. Having stuff like this delivers a great return and is truly passive. Even real estate isn't truly passive income because there is work involved with maintaining it and having tenants. It all depends on how one wants to invest/spend life. Enjoy the rest of your weekend

I Bonds (May interest rate update): I just looked at the recent inflation data and the new I Bond rates will definitely be above 9% when they are released May 1.  The data suggests the rate will be 9.62%. Pretty incredible for some guaranteed emergency fund money..would put funds there that can be left for 12 months or longer.  

A couple who puts $20,000 in, ($10,000 per person is the max electronically) makes $160.33 a month passive income that is really passive, just buy and hold.   Interest compounds semi annually. A near 10% return is incredible in this environment without a long term commitment. Why have funds sitting in a bank account when these can be purchased for any dollar amount. 

More info and can purchase here: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_ibuy.htm

May 1st we find out what the official new rate is. The rate is currently 7.12% for I Bonds purchased through April 2022.