Will be interested to see how the 10/2 year yield curve looks on the next update. I just checked the live chart though it isn't updated yet. I'm guessing it updates on the close price or in the morning?

Thanks for the summary Steve! VIX at 27, near low of day, market firing up here again, I bought some when it filled the gap from yesterday again after scaling out earlier on the big wave up. Amazing trading days

FB (meta) anyone with some shorter term supply targets? Would like a different opinion than my own. $204-205 looks like symmetry on average. Prior two moves were $19 and $22, so using $20 +185=$205

Always darkest before the dawn, things can go right and news flow can change. Buy supports, sell resistances. Scale in, scale out for me. Risk/reward

gap just above there as well at 4,363s

SPX, shows how tough 2022 has been to call. Look at the possible range from Evercore ISI's analyst. (best case) 5,509 and 3,575 (worst case):

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/10/dot-com-bubble-dynamic-may-drive-sp-500-above-5500-julian-emanuel.html

Goldman Sachs just cut their S&P target to 4,700 for end of 2022 the other day. 

I came into 2022 with 5,000 as my top end and 4,000 as my low end with a comment that we could overshoot based on market conditions. I was looking for a 10-15% correction and we got to 12% at 4,220s. I believe 4,095 is the 15% number, which coincides nicely with the gap at 4,020-34. 

Looks like a rounded bottom and still fighting with the 50 day ma here, though should push through if SPX/QQQ does I would think. Still seems to trade with the market, just more volatile on %age

Heck of a newsletter Steve, thanks for the great coverage as always

Tom has made some great calls. He was one of the first on Bitcoin years ago before its major run. Years later it landed right in the range where he said. Also called the market almost to the letter last year and others years on price target. Made a great call on oil as well. Credit where it is due. 

took the 40% on the other half of SCO today. That will buy some gas for a while. 

SPX any possibility that this is a reverse H&S pattern? Head at 4,115 and the shoulders at 4,220s from January and also today? Getting close to a 9/13 ma cross as well. They aren't making it easy on bulls or bears this year

Found it: https://bpt-videos.s3.amazonaws.com/trade_to_win/trade_to_win.html 

Thanks Matt, I know you did a video on this before for education before. This is concise and something I can refer to. 

Trading Position Size: What is the average % of your total account balance that you use for a trade? Or methodology otherwise for position size? 

For sure, I grabbed a small trading amount yesterday when we came off that 4,210 around 4,215, though was kind of surprised we didn't test a little further down...really didn't line up with any good area after breaking the 4,220 January support again..maybe that was a Pinocchio probing type of deal before it finally held again there. 

My goal was to look for an initial move to fill the gap at 4,277 from the other day and it looks like we are getting that this morning in the pre-market, then after that, trail and look for the other upside targets. That 4,295-4,300 area would be next.  Would have been nice of course to have a larger trade amount, though the risk/reward just wasn't there. Really felt like I was trading in no man's land and would have scaled to protect if we went lower and took it from there. Tough market to say the least

SPX Bulls need to defend the 4,170.70 gap with their life now or that 4,020-4,034 looks more likely. It really seems though without additional news regarding the war, it will be tougher to push it lower over time. One thing with markets though, the longer the uncertainty and sentiment focus remains, and longer the trend remains in tact, the more it can continue. Lots of work to do here, though there will continue to be opportunities for trades along the way. 

Everyone has different strategies of course, another of mine is, I'm not a short seller. If I want to represent a bearish view, I sell a portion or all of my long trade(s). Cash represents to me that risk/reward was not favorable enough for me to stay with the current setup at a particular level. 

My other strategy beside my trading strategy is that I'm a long term investor. The world must grow over time and that means that the stock market will rise in the long term. I accumulate inventory at discounted prices (love extreme washouts) and then wait for that growth to occur. Also, no need to be in invest in individual names for me, it is more time and hassle than I want to take on. I've been just as much right as wrong over the years trying to game individual companies. I stay with leveraged indexes to represent my view and various other long term funds.  

It has taken years to craft a strategy and then just stay in my lane over and over. It can be tempting to want to get into other things, though I've learned to just not do it. I stay with what I know and what I'm comfortable with. It is a good mantra for life to be honest and myself anyway. 

In this case, I was trading the 3xetf, SPXL. I had been long from the 4,170s most recently. Options are a no go for me, not in my style or appetite. 3xetf is plenty of leverage for me

Thanks Steve, I appreciate you continuing to provide the good coverage and education. 

I've learned over time to not have fomo. The risk/reward ends up much more favorable, I can sit in the trade at that point with defined areas. Buy supports, sell resistances. Account balance rises, no matter what the market does over time that way. 

Then when we have extremes, I manage my other strategy in long term inventory. (IRAs) Buy the panic and sell some into the overdone parties like we had last year. 

Two strategies, a trading one and a long term one for retirement. Nice and simple. On my white board I have one statement "Be flexible as markets change" This has been particularly important in trends and saved me over and over. Any time I've decided to go against it, I have lost money. When I have followed it, I've made money over time. If I refuse to learn, the market is happy to teach me again. As nice as this rally is today, the general market has a lot of work to do long term. I pray it gets to it sooner than later, though have no control over that part. Trading what is in front of me then hurry up and wait. 

SPX, I sold the 4,290 area. Was using a 3xetf for my trade. If it goes higher, that is fine, I have long term inventory in the markets in funds that will participate. Can always rejoin a more objective setup going forward.