1. The interest has two components that make up that rate. Read the info at the link I shared. 

2. I would say it implies a higher rate, possibly in the 9 range. will know when they post it next month. 

3. No

Here's a good article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevevernon/2021/11/29/3-ways-pre-retirees-and-retirees-can-use-us-series-i-savings-bonds/?sh=79622f737a7f

*I'm not a financial advisor and nothing I post should ever be taken as personal investment advice. Do your own DD and formulate your own plan based on your personal situation. Just like Matt and Steve preach here all the time.  

I Bonds rates next month will likely be in the 9 percent range given recent inflation. An attractive guaranteed rate for any cash not being used for at least a year. Certainly better than a savings account or other options. Any funds pulled out after a year that aren't in for five years, give up one quarters worth of interest. 

One thing of note, one can only do $10,000 per person in a calendar year electronic purchase wise. And another $5,000 on top of that if you are using tax return funds. Consider your situation before purchase of course. I'l be buying more soon, already have some of the 7.12% ones. Interest compounds semi annually and the interest rate updates every six months: 

Info and can purchase here: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_ibuy.htm

I like to do what I can to have a plan for our household. Once I'm informed, I formulate a plan and execute on it accordingly. Watching endless videos and reading endless articles does nothing for me. This goes for any subject I have no control over. Back to enjoying my life. The question becomes where should my money be and why during a particular period of time. 

Rotation here , short term strength seller/trimming in XLP at 72 RSI now and short term buyer in IYT for a starter, 31 RSI now. Here are the holdings for IYT: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IYT/holdings?p=IYT

Looking for a reversion to mean rally eventually back to the 200/50 day if markets can hold up. Also took some on weakness in the 3xetf TPOR for trading. 

Sold about 1/2 my position when it hit $78.50s today. Heck of a steady run from $72 off the 200 day. Still like it, though getting very overbought short term. 

Thanks for your work on the charts, Steve. I was just saying at the close to a friend that a gap down would have us looking at the 200 day ma around 4,489 or maybe even the 4,456 gap. Get everyone doubting again in a down wave, then find a support to buy as it is likely headed back up after that. 

Thank the put buyers/shorts for this continued rise. This market isn't going to stop going up from a trend perspective until they quit insisting on shorting everyday and posting the same news. Russia, inflation, rate cuts, etc. The angrier they get, the higher it goes. It will end at some point when the sentiment changes and possibly how the money flows. Markets don't crash when the masses are sounding the horn. Right now, the market just doesn't care, so redraw the charts again if you are determined to be right. 

Just like the market was complacent on the bearish front when we were staying down in February on the same news everyday. Same story, different day. People were piling in guaranteeing we were going to see new lows. There is one way to know what to do, respect the price action until conditions CHANGE. I have one statement on a white board near my desk. "Be flexible when markets change". 

If one was bearish, they had to stop being bearish when the trend changed at 4,300 and provided evidence that a new trend had begun. We are still in that trend. This market has whipsawed a lot of bulls and bears. It is a time where allocations and targets mean a lot. No need to check things every hour or few hours unless one is a trader or has decided to spend some of life that way. Look at the close prices if needed or set alerts and go back to life. Priorities matter. Have a plan and execute upon it when the time comes to do so. I do my work in the mornings then when the market opens, I'm not concerned, just following the plan. I don't make the rules, I just play by them. Let's see what the market gives today. Risk/reward. 

SPX My thoughts in balancing my view

The longer term trajectory of indexes supported by Fed assistance has long been a concern. If we somehow would get a move down to that 3,600 area or even the lower part of the channel, some good increases occurred, and tightening, then I'd call that a win still for markets given where we have come from. For a real bear market reset we not only need price, we need time, a year or two where prices go lower, go sideways, and those used to seeing new highs start to doubt their strategies. Once we get the towel throw ins and sentiment change to worry, then it can bottom and start another multi year bull. 

That being said, shorter term, there are so many people out here now talking about how the market is going to crash with the Fed pulling away assistance, but once again when its this pronounced with so many expecting it, makes me wonder if it will actually happen. Even the inverted yield curve isn't a guarantee that markets head down immediately. I thought Steve made a great point as well that there are few alternatives to investment like the stock market right now. If I could put more than 20,000 a year into I Bonds at 7.12% guaranteed for my wife and I ($10,000 each per year is the maximum allowed), I'd certainly do it, though guarantees are very limited at attractive return rates. 

There are a lot of people, bulls and bears who aren't happy with this recent rally and waiting to position at lower and higher levels through buying and selling. Bears are super frustrated here and I saw a lot of giddiness on that one day where SPX was down 1.57% after a 13% rally off the 4,115 lows to the recent 4,637 area. After a 10-15% correction in indexes, the average return is 27% afterward. Again, all just history, and there has never been a time when the Fed has had to take this path. That being said, there could be a scenario where they make the cuts needed and do a little tightening, and have some room to play with after that. By then, prices have somewhat cooled in terms of inflation and people are happy with $3 gas or under instead of $4s.

As usual, one can go blue in the face with predictions, so its better that I just have a plan and allocations based on my risk tolerance, time frame, and levels at which there would be buying or selling occurring in my portfolio. I have a plan for my trading strategy and another plan for my long term investments. If we saw a move into that 4,662-4,718 area on SPX and were overbought, I'd have to strongly consider making some long term changes or at least start to. I most recently bought long term inventory when SPX was in the low 4,200s, so my first move would be to sell that. My top end of my SPX forecast is at 4,800 this year, a bit more conservative than my previous 5,000 I started the year with. Simply because I want to preserve the longer term gains I've made over the years, particularly on purchases I made from the corona crash. I would be waiting to buy new inventory after seeing where markets firmed up if we had a retest of the 4,115 lows or went lower. Otherwise it is a hold as I'm allocated across asset classes and already prepared. One day at a time. 

Finally getting that 9 ema reversion to mean today from what I'm seeing. Would be nice to close that 4,456 gap. Only the Wizard behind the curtain knows what's next. Ready with my plan to execute depending on what is given. 

XLP (Consumer Staples) I bought this against the most recent 200 day test and feel it will continue to be a good place to be. No need to just rush in at any price, though I've noticed when the market goes risk on, it gets some intraday weakness. Closed green yesterday though again amidst the market down day, which I think is an indication of how important the staples will be and that shortages may hit the US at some point, not just increased prices like we are seeing now. 

Some interesting historic facts, if owning a 50/50 portfolio of Consumer Staples and Technology. XLP/QQQ , one could achieve 90% of the return of tech alone but have about half the volatility. 

Here's the chart: https://schrts.co/MCaIRZBF

Here are the holdings, to me the best companies in the world as they have pricing power and sell things that people NEED regardless of what the economy is doing:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLP/holdings?p=XLP 

Yield Curve inverting 10/2 year. Had a friend call me that we are now inverted and the first time since 2019. Haven't been able to check as I'm on the road. 

ARKK strong above the 50 day today: https://schrts.co/NUBMSNat   up 6.3% at the moment

SPX I doubled my bear shares hedge position at the 4,624 area. 

I am highly considering selling some long term inventory that I purchased on the long side in the low 4,200s soon. A 64 long term RSI is high for indexes over any reasonable period of time. And especially noting everything that has to happen with rates, Fed balance sheet, etc. Will be watching the close for my decision. 

You guys combining a few of my favorite pastimes, markets and eating. Stick sandwiches here I come   

Works for me. I added to my hedge today on close. In good shape on both sides with my inventory. 

SPX Bears gotta be super frustrated by now. Power move off of barely any rest AGAIN. 

They should have taken the medicine when the market made new highs last year. No reason to not start with 25 basis points and talk like they always do. Too much talking. 

The market needs a good rest here for some days, this action isn't normal at all, tougher because those major moving averages are playing havoc, that gap above is firmly in place though and bears have defended it for now.

Just came from Sam's Club, everything is up again, large increases on water, food, coffee. The Fed will need to act much more aggressively to get it under control. I think when they go to address the balance sheet in May, it is going to get interesting quick. Guess we will find out and I"ll respect the price action on levels in both directions. 

Your welcome Steve, glad its working. 

I've actually warmed up to shorting now in particular situations. Its a very useful tool for increasing my returns when given the right situation. If the market wants to throw me a center cut fastball, its my best pitch to hit. 

Entirely possible by May. Happy to adjust if needed. It is the only gap left now on the upside and a target for bulls. 

Added a few for my short trade when SPX hit 4,512. Nice hedge book position here now, though still not huge. My long term long inventory that I bought during the panic in low 4,200s is looking very good here. I would consider selling some of that if we hit those 4,660s. Risk/reward. Market can decide what I do next. Happy to swing what I have here on both sides.