Large corporations before investing: "We need your help to invest, in other words you take the risk, not us"

Large corporations during the investment" "We need you to pay us every year to keep this investment alive"

Large corporations when in trouble on their investment: "We need you to bail us out or we are closing shop and laying everyone off"

Really smart is this environment. I do the same thing with LABU/LABD. I wake up not caring what the market will do. Just play the risk/reward. I like simple in life and trading/investing. 

Bitcoin went green, maybe ol SPX has a shot here to rally and/or fill the open gap at 3,801. 

It is important because the markets cannot bottom long term without it filling in this backdrop. And we are likely going lower I agree. That 50% and 61.8% retrace areas that have been discussed are in view for a lot of long termers looking to buy for a tradeable bottom at the least. I think its tough to argue that we are in a recession here. We are in a hurricane walking into the wind right now. This is a highly illiquid market. Earnings are proving a challenge. Fed policy is poorly aligned while growth challenges are here. 

Markets need to become undervalued for the big money to buy. Right now we are arguably still overvalued or fairly valued. We need to overshoot on the downside like we did on the upside for years when the Fed acted foolishly. This appears to be going to take a lot longer than people think. Price and time will finally cause the capitulation and give up moment many are seeking. I doubt it is even close. This still looks like denial to me. There are still bottom callers everywhere. Ya, we can have rallies, maybe even a solid bear market rally at some point, though I think it ultimately ends up lower for longer. Maybe we can level out sometime in 2023. I'd love to be wrong as I do have some longer term money in equities in IRA accounts. We are allocated to weather this though and not expecting much for a few years. 

I like this chart that Matt and Steve have shared attached.

UUP reminds me of XLE when the markets got all giddy in June when it was way overbought. I fortunately sold the puts yesterday when it had the down move. Way overdone here though for anyone with patience that can scale. I'm happy just working my few instruments on a % spread trading LABU/LABD. Consistent money/good volatility. 

In an ideal world, we close this 3,674 gap and can get long after that for a bounce when there is clarity on an objective support level. Markets don't often give ideal situations though, guess we will see. Can't stand that gap being open and it is getting closer and closer. 

Bitcoin continues to show just how illiquid it is, bouncing up and down with market orders. Could be 28,000 year end just as easy as 12,500. Nobody knows. Certainly isn't acting with much confidence. 

Another thing I was looking at, TIPS (inflation protected securities) have been crushed. These are supposed to protect against inflation, just haven't done it. Gold also sold as inflation protection supposedly..Energy baited in the masses when it got strong, now that it came in a bit people are hesitant. The pros are crushing retail and the gap widens during these times. Just can't stay anywhere and hope for the best. 

I wake up everyday and ask the same question. What is the plan for this portion of money? I also remember that I don't have to play in certain areas, less is often more in investing and life. No need to watch every tick unless one is trading all day. 

BofA slashes S&P 500 target, sees only a fifth of market bottom signs triggered

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3856720-bofa-slashes-sp-500-target-sees-only-a-fifth-of-market-bottom-signs-triggered

Price target cut to 3,600 year end from 4,500

It is one of the best run banks in the business. I like the steps Dimon is taking by suspending share buybacks and building the loan loss reserve. Those moves say to me that this bear market may last longer than many prefer. Will be interesting to see if the market finds buyers again today or if it is finally overwhelmed and needs to fill the 3,674 gap to start. 

One thing to be watching for, Jamie Dimon will buy stock in JPM when it is time to buy banks. 

Bitcoin spiking 4.64%. Normally bullish for markets as a leading indicator. We shall see tomorrow with earnings (JPM and MS) and PPI at 8:30 a.m. 

Remember who they brought in to run things during the financial crisis years ago. None other than former Goldman Sachs chair, Hank Paulson. Funny how this stuff works, huh. No talent at all, just flat up robbery with these guys. How do they sleep at night?

LABU has been good to me since the $4s, but wants $11s. 

As far as gaps, next one is at 3,899. PPT to the rescue! :) Let's go 

SPX We now have 9 upside gaps from this year and 1 downside. I don't have historic data on this, though I have tracked gaps ever since I've been trading and the risk/reward is leaning for a bigger rally at some point. From what level, ask the market. The downside gap sits at 3,674 and I believe it won't hold in the long term. All that being said, just trading what is in front of me. Certainly good to be aware of though. Gaps have saved and made me a lot of money. 

I use a dollar allocation amount and I peel off shares as supply areas are achieved if I'm long. Same thing if short, peel them off as we hit demand areas portion by portion. I buy on sale always no matter what. I've only used two instruments recently and just been playing the volatility. LABU and LABD. Less is more. I used to try and track a bunch of stuff and get involved in handfuls of things. Too much distraction, wastes time, and detracts from my goal which is to protect then make money. 

Replied to the wrong thread, this was re: trading strategy, adjusting positions, stops, etc. Thanks as always Steve

Do you set an order with a stop loss, trailing order? or are you monitoring it manually? Always curious how others are managing their trades. 

US dollar, sold my bear etf for a small profit today. Kept the small puts position for January 2023. This market loves shenanigans and no follow-through. Risk reward is great here but it doesn't have to breakdown just because of that. Let's see.

All the furus said to own 10%-15% of a portfolio in metals. Nobody mentioned the dollar. Can't make this stuff up.  Trading rally will come at some point, though nobody knows when. No interest other than trading if even that. 

Already in the green, I am long UDN (bearish etf) for the dollar and own some puts for January 2023 (small size wise) on UUP. Very reasonable to expect at least a reversion to mean pullback

I think the US Dollar is due for at least a reversion to mean pullback. Today's action looks like a blowoff topping pattern to me. It may take some time, though I'm comfortable starting a short position. 74 long term RSI here, and hasn't been this strong in many years.