XBI This has led the market very strongly since $62 at that double bottom and massive volume. Still long LABU the 3x etf. One of the new leaders for markets long term. 

Bitcoin still under pressure. I think it is becoming more and more clear that it is going lower over time and any strength gets sold. Market orders are brutal for it. 

A nice gap up to start the week would be great. Then squeeze em up to 4,017. One day at a time though. We need to get above 3,850. Gotta admit being able to have a rally feels really good. "It feels like the first time" as one band put it  Enjoy the long weekend! Happy 4th! 

SPX Still seeing a lot of bears demanding new lows. A nice long weekend will give them something to think about now. This was an objective long set up and the trade is working. Can't argue wtih price until you can. Not getting caught up in a view. I'll trade what's in front of me. I did trim 9% of my LABU position at the highs just now $7.33. So far so good since the $4s. There were opportunities to play with a hedge when it rested as well. I made 3 major LABD trades. Beautiful dividends is how I consider those profits while I wait. 

XBI, nice action over the last days. Backtested the 50 day and moving up here again. Long LABU still some remaining shares from my dip buy in $4s. 

https://schrts.co/cdbgVKya

This is exactly why I left the business after 20+ years. We timed the markets very well, buying extreme selloffs and selling the parties. The big issue became over time that I simply couldn't keep up. I wasn't going to maintain a staff, manage to all the game playing every year, and now the catastrophes every five minutes in the world. The 14 hour days are over. I was just thinking of the covid selloff, oh how about the Christmas Eve off 20% from the highs in 2018 because of some China scare. Of course the financial crisis. Tech bubbles anyone. Summer low volume bs volatility anyone, oh make sure it happens when I'm trying to take some time off for a week to be with my family. All of course became opportunities, though now I have to enagage in all the conversations, dispelling the terrible media stories, and trying to search for the truth while people are eating social media feeds and news amidst platforms that were created to addict people to their propaganda. Prices are the only truth we could ever play by, improve the risk/reward dramatically, and know that the world had to move on, or money wouldn't matter anyway. 

I wasn't an advisor that could just tell someone to buy and hold at any price. I did my best and thankfully did very well with my clients. The truth is though with all the regs and other things I mentioned, it isn't worth it. The only way I could really do it is to just manage for a small group of high worth clients. Honestly though, there is more that comes with that than just being in the business and making money. Some of those types were not the greatest people to be around. I value relationships and believe we eventually do take on the characteristics of who we spend the most time with. Peace of mind is worth a lot. Having my time back is worth a lot, priceless really. I sleep well these days. 

Any change on the system trade that is currently still short? 

S&P on track to finish its worst first half in 52 years

Wait til the quarterly statements come out. Stocks are not only down heavily, but also double digit bond losses (historic). Heck bonds would sometimes be up during large corrections and crashes. No ballast for portfolios. 

For context, S&P was at 4,600 or so on that pump into the end of Q1. Now in the 3,700s at the end of Q2. And the bonds are down. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-thursday-june-30.html

SPX A few observations from yesterday while I was out. Consumers are either out of money to buy meat at the higher prices or they are refusing to pay the higher prices. Sam's Club had a lot of steak, pork, ground beef, etc. all marked down because it was near expiry. I go there regularly and this rarely happens for them marking things down at that pace. Some of the stuff was 50% off. I was happy to take them up on the sale as we have a freezer. I don't only love deals in the market, I love deals in the grocery store, and in anything else I can get them on. 

Bed Bath and Beyond is beyond terrible and has been turning off their a/c to save money. They replaced their CEO yesterday and have an activist investor breathing down their neck. If anything, they have some real estate I guess, though there isn't a real business there I can see that can profit over any period of time. I'm certainly not shorting it at $4.99, just crazy to watch. Going to be a good bit of retail restructure and/or go out of buisness in this cycle. 

Regarding positions, I took the rest of my long exposure off yesterday SPXL while the market was green in the small range. I kept some remaining LABU shares as I own them from the $4s. I added a position in LABD though to hedge before the close in the $37s. I sold that position this morning at $40.69. Good enough for now until I have more evidence as to where the general market is going. I was concerned that SPX 3,795 didn't fill on the cash gap wise and got so close a few times and the market being so lathargic ahead of more economic data. They more than filled it this morning.

Steve, thanks for the great newsletter! Also kudos on the systems trades Matt!

Haha nice! I'm sure she has one 

Guaranteeing a rally today btw, officially frustrated with this market. Everyone thank me later for saving July. A real soothsayer I am. Woo-hoo 

Anyone have a 5 second chart that shows a triple inverse ABC wave 5 with a connecting demark 9, 13 buysignal divergent triple bottom off the more flat triangle rising wedge scenario to bearish bullish symmetry? I will post one if not lol

This market acts like that girlfriend you wanna believe in but you know are better off without. Sad but true. 

They do what the government tells them or they are out of a job. They are not independent. Just like an employee is not independent from the mission of their supervisor. 

The actual gap fill number on the SPX cash is 3,795.73. So it got into the gap but didn't fill it completely yet. 

There is a lot of talk of runaway inflation, though my greater concern is what has to be done to bring down inflation to the Fed target number. If they really want inflation at 2%, we have a long way to go from here even if it has peaked. And that will mean lower stock/asset prices over time eventually. 

I'm not in the camp that we crash this year though. If we did make a new low (my guess would be the old bottom in October deal), I think the 3,500 area would be reasonable and then it stays up into year end. 

I bought some SPXL back yesterday after the close when it went a bit lower. Also nibbled on some LABU end of day to add to my remaining shares I bought in the $4s, similar to what the system is doing adding to longs it had from lower prices. Protect, monitor, and adjust. 

Was just thinking, someone showed that Fed assets chart when we got the rally it was clear they were buying. Wonder if it will show they are buying today as well to hold things up. I'm betting it does. This market can get easily moved in both directions. Just takes the biggest purse to control the tape. 

Thanks for the great newsletter, Steve! Let's see if Powell can be a soothesayer   

Just sold my SPXS, over 110+ points just today since when it fake gapped up and ran to resistance. Served its purpose 

Any early signal indication from the system short trade if it will exit or not? If I had to guess, I'm betting if the market stays down it will exit. 

Good stuff, I'm watching that 3,850 as well, the 5 day on my swing timeframe

Still going, hope you caught it with me. Was a lower risk entry with a tight stop and never looked back off that bottom. 5 days up now trending off the bottom. Protect, monitor, and adjust.