3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
basically right on ledge support, looks very vulnerable, here's
a 4hr chart
now the other harder to trigger bear long is showing an entry, I
should have just waited for that LOL.
I'm guessing the SPY Bear long may be close or trigger today
Also, again depending on what this market does, like if the
market decides to flush down to a new low - well then be prepared
these will take some draw downs and multiple entries until the
bounce finally occurs. We'll see...
In an ideal world, we close this 3,674 gap and can get long
after that for a bounce when there is clarity on an objective
support level. Markets don't often give ideal situations though,
guess we will see. Can't stand that gap being open and it is
getting closer and closer.
Is there a reason you think the gap Is important? Might
be short term support but we are going much lower over the next
It is important because the markets cannot bottom long term
without it filling in this backdrop. And we are likely going lower
I agree. That 50% and 61.8% retrace areas that have been discussed
are in view for a lot of long termers looking to buy for a
tradeable bottom at the least. I think its tough to argue that we
are in a recession here. We are in a hurricane walking into the
wind right now. This is a highly illiquid market. Earnings are
proving a challenge. Fed policy is poorly aligned while growth
challenges are here.
Markets need to become undervalued for the big money to buy.
Right now we are arguably still overvalued or fairly valued. We
need to overshoot on the downside like we did on the upside for
years when the Fed acted foolishly. This appears to be going to
take a lot longer than people think. Price and time will finally
cause the capitulation and give up moment many are seeking. I doubt
it is even close. This still looks like denial to me. There are
still bottom callers everywhere. Ya, we can have rallies, maybe
even a solid bear market rally at some point, though I think it
ultimately ends up lower for longer. Maybe we can level out
sometime in 2023. I'd love to be wrong as I do have some longer
term money in equities in IRA accounts. We are allocated to weather
this though and not expecting much for a few years.
I like this chart that Matt and Steve have shared attached.
Thanks. Good summary. I too believe markets are
going lower. Like the concept of over correcting.
While everything you said may be true, as usual when this
question is asked, it doesn't really answer what is the importance
of gaps being filled. I think that as with Fibonacci retracements
it is more a self-fulfilling prophecy than anything else.
when price gets too close to a gap on the index, it's analogous
to placing too magnets very close together, no matter how strong
you are they will snap together
the gap significance goes hand in hand with those NYSE TICK
spikes (TICK spiking over 1000 to 1500 or below -1000 to -1500).
You tend to get those huge spikes in the NYSE TICK above 1000
or 1500 or the inverse on big gaps and those create important price
and psychological support/resistance areas where a LOT of volume
and TICKS trades - creates important price pivot zones - NYSE TICK
spikes tend to occur in those gaps
speaking of the NYSE TICK here's that 1 min SPX chart - notice
the bounce stalled at the big TICK spike at 3770, which occurred on
the gap from 6/15 at the market open
obviously we had a new NYSE tick generated from the big gap down
when the NYSE spiked to -1900 - again these tend to get generated
on this big gap ups or downs, not always sometimes you get one
intra day but most occur at gaps
And +1000 -1000 tick is a great place to take an opposite
position if you're short term guy.
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