ES futures

    Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2022 at 09:13 am

    basically right on ledge support, looks very vulnerable, here's a 4hr chart

    now the other harder to trigger bear long is showing an entry, I should have just waited for that LOL. 

    I'm guessing the SPY Bear long may be close or trigger today

    Also, again depending on what this market does, like if the market decides to flush down to a new low - well then be prepared these will take some draw downs and multiple entries until the bounce finally occurs.  We'll see...

    In an ideal world, we

    Posted by fundamentalvalues on 14th of Jul 2022 at 09:26 am

    In an ideal world, we close this 3,674 gap and can get long after that for a bounce when there is clarity on an objective support level. Markets don't often give ideal situations though, guess we will see. Can't stand that gap being open and it is getting closer and closer. 

    Is there a reason you

    Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 14th of Jul 2022 at 10:08 am

    Is there a reason you think the gap Is important?   Might be short term support but we are going much lower over the next year?

    It is important because the

    Posted by fundamentalvalues on 14th of Jul 2022 at 12:05 pm

    It is important because the markets cannot bottom long term without it filling in this backdrop. And we are likely going lower I agree. That 50% and 61.8% retrace areas that have been discussed are in view for a lot of long termers looking to buy for a tradeable bottom at the least. I think its tough to argue that we are in a recession here. We are in a hurricane walking into the wind right now. This is a highly illiquid market. Earnings are proving a challenge. Fed policy is poorly aligned while growth challenges are here. 

    Markets need to become undervalued for the big money to buy. Right now we are arguably still overvalued or fairly valued. We need to overshoot on the downside like we did on the upside for years when the Fed acted foolishly. This appears to be going to take a lot longer than people think. Price and time will finally cause the capitulation and give up moment many are seeking. I doubt it is even close. This still looks like denial to me. There are still bottom callers everywhere. Ya, we can have rallies, maybe even a solid bear market rally at some point, though I think it ultimately ends up lower for longer. Maybe we can level out sometime in 2023. I'd love to be wrong as I do have some longer term money in equities in IRA accounts. We are allocated to weather this though and not expecting much for a few years. 

    I like this chart that Matt and Steve have shared attached.

    Thanks.  Good summary.   I

    Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 14th of Jul 2022 at 01:05 pm

    Thanks.  Good summary.   I too believe markets are going lower.  Like the concept of over correcting.  

    While everything you said may

    Posted by mastermind on 14th of Jul 2022 at 12:51 pm

    While everything you said may be true, as usual when this question is asked, it doesn't really answer what is the importance of gaps being filled. I think that as with Fibonacci retracements it is more a self-fulfilling prophecy than anything else. 

    when price gets too close

    Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2022 at 12:58 pm

    when price gets too close to a gap on the index, it's analogous to placing too magnets very close together, no matter how strong you are they will snap together

    the gap significance goes hand in hand with those NYSE TICK spikes (TICK spiking over 1000 to 1500 or below -1000 to -1500).  You tend to get those huge spikes in the NYSE TICK above 1000 or 1500 or the inverse on big gaps and those create important price and psychological support/resistance areas where a LOT of volume and TICKS trades - creates important price pivot zones - NYSE TICK spikes tend to occur in those gaps

    speaking of the NYSE TICK

    Posted by matt on 14th of Jul 2022 at 01:09 pm

    speaking of the NYSE TICK here's that 1 min SPX chart - notice the bounce stalled at the big TICK spike at 3770, which occurred on the gap from 6/15 at the market open

    obviously we had a new NYSE tick generated from the big gap down when the NYSE spiked to -1900 - again these tend to get generated on this big gap ups or downs, not always sometimes you get one intra day but most occur at gaps

    And +1000 -1000 tick is

    Posted by brophy on 14th of Jul 2022 at 01:23 pm

    And +1000 -1000 tick is a great place to take an opposite position if you're short term guy.


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